Tag Archives: solar radiation

Magnetic Pole Reversal: Will It Turn Our World Upside Down?

10 Saturday Mar 2018

Posted by in Astronomy, Education, Exploration, Generational, History, NASA, Science, solar, Space, Technology, US Space Program

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The magnetic north and south poles are up to something. It looks like Earth’s magnetic poles are about to swap. It usually happens every 300,000 years or so but it’s been 780,000 years since it last happened. What does it mean for humans? Is this the end of human civilization?

Earth magnetic normal magnetic field (left) and during a swap (right)

Pole Reversal:  Another Y2K?

To answer this question let’s go back to 1984. That is the year that Jerome and Marilyn Murray published a book called Computers in Crisis, changed to The Year 2000 Computing Crisis in 1996. They laid out a problem of computer code that handled dates using only the last two digits of the year. The crisis was that at the moment the year 2000 began, they said all the computer networks around the world would crash. This was known as the Y2K problem.

The Y2K problem was a significant issue; however, because computer codes are constantly being changed, updated, and replaced, it probably would have been resolved without the hyper-scare stories in the media. Computer codes were changed and Y2K came and passed without incident.

That Y2K problem is a good comparison to the North/South magnetic pole reversal issue. There is a problem, but it is a problem that will unfold over hundreds to thousands of years. Most will not notice the effect in the next decade, but there is a significant change coming as soon as the next solar minimum.

Your Magnetic Field is Temporarily Out of Order

The problem is not about the reversal of the magnetic poles. The problem is about the process of the reversal. The magnetic field around Earth deflects cosmic and solar radiation from reaching Earth’s surface. Without this field (or shield) life, as we know it on Earth, would not be possible.

As the poles begin the process of swapping the magnetic field it becomes less organized. This results in the magnetic north and south pole fading and that causes cosmic radiation to come closer to Earth’s surface.

In addition, the magnetic field becomes weaker during solar sunspot minimums. This is when the Sun has few, if any, sunspots and generates less solar flares. This lull in solar activity approximately every eleven years is matched with a similar lull in the strength of Earth’s magnetic field.

Captain! Our Shields Are Down!

Scientists have discovered that the magnetic field is weakening much faster now than in the past. They believe the process of pole reversal, which is overdue by about 400,000 years, has now begun. We are also in the beginning stages of the solar minimum, which will result in an anemic magnetic field for the next two to three years.

Projections of the radiation dosage for this upcoming solar minimum were about 20% above the last solar minimum; however, actual rates are closer to 30% so far.  This is not a major concern, but it does mean that satellites may encounter more radiation that could damage or disable them. It also means that an astronaut only can spend about 700 days in space now than the 1,000 days they could spend in the 1990’s.

Oh Where, Oh Where Will Our North Pole Go?

The poles are on the move thanks to a liquid layer of iron in Earth’s Core.  Earth is already experiencing a strange phenomenon of magnetic weakening across the South Atlantic stretching from Africa to South America. Since we have not experienced this change before, no one can be absolutely sure what odd side effects may occur during the process; however, the only significant concern is increased radiation in Earth’s atmosphere and in orbit.

It’s important to remember that in geologic time frames we are the equivalent of lightning. As problems develop we’re pretty good at responding.

Understanding Global Warming and Cold Weather

31 Sunday Dec 2017

Posted by in About Reno, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Green, Health, Higher Education, Politics, Science, solar, Taxes, Technology, Universities

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Few things define a person’s intelligence than the ability to understand complex issues. Few things define a person’s stupidity than to take a complex issue and use a short-circuit of logic to make it sound simple.

Every winter some people prove their lack of intelligence and say something like, “I just shoveled five inches of global warming off my driveway.” This makes other small-minded people giggle, and the speaker feel like he has just proved he is smarter than all the intelligent, educated people.

He is not.

Global Warming and Winter Weather 101
To understand the threat of global warming a person first has to understand the effect of the Earth’s 23.5° tilt of its axis off the solar plane. I just lost 30% of the stupid people.

The Earth’s tilt causes one hemisphere (north or south) to receive more radiant energy than the other in the few months around the solstices. This means that one of the polar regions is receiving external heat from the Sun, and the other is receiving no solar energy because it is in darkness. I’m about to lose another 20% of the stupid people.

The cold air in the polar region would stay exactly where it is if it weren’t for the Laws of Thermal Dynamics. Ah, there they go. Okay, were down to the last 50% of the stupid people.

Among other things, thermal dynamics explain the behavior of the energy exchange between two substances, and Fluid Dynamics help to explain how a difference in temperature in a substance like air causes cooler air to mix with warmer air. I just lost another 25% of the stupid people. It was the ‘fluid dynamics’ thing, wasn’t it?

The greater the difference in temperature, the greater, or more actively, the warmer air will mix with the cooler air. If the last 25% of stupid people can just hang on, I’m almost there.

Because there is more carbon dioxide suspended in our atmosphere, it absorbs more of the solar radiation, and that increases the temperature of the air. That causes more water to vaporize and it also absorbs solar radiation and that further increases the temperature of the air. Damn, I lost another 10%.

During the northern hemisphere’s winter, the north polar region has a lot of cold air that desperately wants to mix with the warm air to the south to equalize the temperature between cold and warm. The greater the temperature difference, the more powerful the movement of the air toward each other. Okay, l just lost another 10%.

I see the blank faces of the last 5% of stupid people. Cold air is cold air. It remains cold as it moves toward the warm air. It is only after it mixes with warmer air (i.e.; storms) that the temperature of the two air masses begin to equalize. Oh, there go the last 5% of the stupid people.

For the rest of us, global warming creates warmer air masses and that can lead to the increased movement between the two air masses resulting in stronger winds and more cold air moving farther south. Also, warmer air can retain more water vapor, so when cold and warm air meet, the storms can result in higher precipitation.

Are We Missing an Ice Age? (Part I)

14 Monday Nov 2011

Posted by in History, Science

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There is no doubt that Earth has a fairly consistent cycle of Ice Ages followed by interglacials, or Warm Ages. Using physical geologic evidence of the last Ice Age, and by analyzing and comparing ice cores, ocean sediment cores, and other samples that preserve air and climate data within them, scientists have an understanding of Earth’s overall climate back for over 400,000 years.

GRAPH 1.0 - Vostok Ice Core Data

There is a pattern to the data that suggests an approximate 100,000 year cycle that includes a 90,000 year cold period (Ice Age) followed by a brief 10,000 year warm period (Warm Age.) While this cycle can vary, the fact is that we have been in a Warm Age for over 10,000 years. Another unusual aspect of the current pattern is that typically the Warm Age rises to a sudden peak followed by a fairly rapid cooling period. The current Warm Age suddenly began and peaked about 11,000 years ago. The Earth has stayed relatively warm, and is in fact, continuing to get warmer.

The question is, are we missing an Ice Age?

GRAPH 1.0 is the data from the Vostok Station ice cores in the Antarctica. The top (blue line) graph indicates the trending air temperature, the middle graph (green line) indicates CO² levels trapped in the ice, and the bottom graph (red line) indicates the dust found in the ice samples. Note that present day is on the left side of all of the graphs and to the right is going farther back in time. Ice core data is not precise because of several factors; however, the data indicates the conditions within a 6,000 year margin of error.

The data indicates that there was a sudden warming starting at about 15, 140, 245, and 330 thousand years ago. The CO² has similar peaks but lags behind the temperature increases by 200 to 600 years. Dust seems to also correlate with the temperature variations, but whether low dust causes warmer temperatures, or warmer temperature cause a cleaning of atmosphere by increased rain, is unknown.

Paul Kiser

The consistency of the cycles indicates that there is some mechanism that drives the cold/warm periods which would be difficult to explain using Earth-bound causes. Volcanic periods, plate tectonics, ocean currents and other activities on Earth that might influence our climate don’t seem to have cycles that could be matched to the ice core data; however, there are exo-mechanisms (outside of Earth) that could help to explain the Ice/Warm Age cycles.

Earth as a Battery
Everyone knows that the Earth warms in the Spring and Summer and cools in the Fall and Winter. The reasons for this are due to Earth’s 23.5° tilt as we orbit around the Sun (SEE:  23.5 Degrees = Seasons on Earth.) Based on our firsthand experiences, it might be easy to believe that the Earth’s relationship to the Sun, outside of the annual march of the seasons, is relatively constant; however, it is not.

Earth’s orbit and tilt change over time and there is a significant difference in how much of the Sun’s energy (solar radiation) that Earth receives based on its relative position with the Sun. This is important because the energy our planet receives from the Sun is like a battery charger for our climate. When Earth absorbs more energy, the battery charges and we have a warmer, more active climate. When the Earth absorbs less energy, it cools and our climate reacts accordingly.

There are multiple factors that change Earth’s position in relationship to the Sun. Almost 100 years ago, Serbian geophysicist and civil engineer, Milutin Milanković noted these astronomical variations and suggested a theory of climate change based on these factors now known as the Milankovitch Cycles. In Part II of this series we will learn about the changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt that result in variation of the amount of solar radiation our planet receives. In Part III we will discuss Earth’s current status in the Milankovitch Cycle and why we may be overdue for an ice age.

PART II – Understanding the Milankovitch Cycles, Clues to Earth’s Climate Changes

PART III – Should We Be In An Ice Age Now?

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