Category Archives: solar

Blindsided: End of U.S. Solar Observation Capabilities?

29 Monday Nov 2021

Posted by in NASA, Politics, Science, solar, Space, Space Weather, Technology, United States, US Space Program

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The United States currently has four primary solar observation satellites keeping vigil on the activity of the Sun. They are ready to observe and test dangerous solar flares that might cripple anything that would be at risk with an electromagnetic pulse. Without them, we are left to stand on the shore of space, watching every flicker of the Sun and hoping it isn’t signaling our doom.

These four satellites do more than observe the Sun. Their orbit is at the L1 Lagrange Point directly between the Earth and the Sun. A point where Earth’s gravitational influence equals the Sun’s. These satellites will experience anything the Sun throws at Earth, hours before we will receive it.

However, all four of these satellites are operating beyond their planned lifespan and most are using technology that predates smartphones. We risk being blindsided by solar storms at the same time we are about to enter another solar maximum.

NOAA Space Weather Program Manager William Murtagh made a sheepish attempt to warn a Congressional committee in February of 2020 by saying that they would be “hurting a little bit” if one of the key satellites failed.

Extreme ultraviolet image of the Sun by SOHO

Solar Observation Satellites Today

Currently, the United States has the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Wind solar wind observatory. All three are beyond their planned mission time. DSCOVR is approaching seven years of operation of a five-year planned mission. ACE has over 24 years of operation for a planned five-year lifespan. Finally, the Wind satellite has been operational for over 27 years of a three-year planned mission.

The U.S. teamed with the European Space Agency (ESA) for the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite that offers near real-time imaging of the Sun in multiple wavelengths on its website to the public. That satellite was launched in 1995 for a planned two-year mission. It has been in operation for 26 years.

There is one additional mission that was intended on giving Earth a 360° view of the Sun using two satellites, one positioned ahead of Earth’s orbit and one behind. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO A & B) pair of satellites were launched in 2006. STEREO B was positioned to see the activity of the Sun prior to it rotating towards Earth. STEREO A was positioned to observe the activity after it moved beyond Earth’s view.

Imaging on the STEREO website reminds us of what we don’t have.

Of the two satellites, STEREO B was critical in giving scientists on Earth advance warning of hazardous solar activities; however, we lost contact with that satellite in 2016. Both satellites exceeded their two-year expected lifespan and STEREO A is still in operation.

20+ Year Old Technology

In 2001, Windows XP was released. That program is newer than three of the four primary solar observation satellites currently in service. Smartphones didn’t even exist in the late 1900s and yet, pre-2000 technology is what we currently depend on for early warning of hazardous solar activity.

NASA has been able to squeeze every byte of usability out of our aging satellites but we are at risk of losing most, if not all, of our current solar observation capabilities. Between simple deterioration and future solar storms, we are gambling the safety of our planet with nothing to replace our eyes on the Sun until 2024 at the earliest.

Cameras, communications, and satellite technology have dramatically changed since the end of the 20th century. Our need for updating and upgrading our space-based solar observation abilities has become critical.  

The Money Problem

Both liberal and conservative politicians have made their careers on defunding our key space programs. Conservatives have done the most damage in the aerospace field by slashing NASA programs that don’t blow up or ram something while also filling NASA with people who bend to their will.

At the same time, conservatives have drained the federal government of money for publically controlled space programs and given it to commercial space programs that shield their operations from public scrutiny. The result has been to create Soviet-like space programs that seek to profit off reinventing what we were already able to do decades ago with a government-run space program. 

A Perfect Storm

The risk of a severe coronal mass ejection (CME) that would overload our satellites, electrical transmission wires, cars, computers, phones, etc., increases during the solar maximum that occurs approximately every eleven years. Scientists have been surprised by the early start of the new solar cycle that will reach maximum activity around June of 2023.

Aging satellites, outdated technology, lack of funding for replacement satellites, and an increased risk of solar activity, all create the perfect storm of factors that could lead to the United States having a reduced capability to issue warnings of severe solar weather. In fact, we are probably already too late to do anything about it.  

Is Jupiter the Cause of the Solar Sunspot Cycle?

26 Tuesday Feb 2019

Posted by in 1968, Astronomy, Eclipse, NASA, Science, solar, Space

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A Strange Coincidence

About every eleven years the Sun completes a sunspot cycle. Every 11.9 years Jupiter completes its orbit of the Sun. Coincidence? Maybe, but there is compelling evidence to suggest that Jupiter and the sunspot cycle are linked.

Image 1.0  Sunspots at the beginning of the 2017 Total Solar Eclipse

The Solar Sunspot Cycle

The solar maximum (the period when the Sun has the maximum sunspot count) of last six cycles occurred in 2012, 2001, 1990, 1979, 1968, and 1957. In each case, the solar maximum extended over many months, but by selecting a common date within the period, (e.g.; June 1st,) the eleven year period becomes apparent (SEE Graphic 1.0)

Graphic 1.0 The Eleven-Year Solar Cycle using a Common Date (June 1st)

It is important to note that the eleven-year cycle applies to the maximum sunspot activity. Solar minimums tend to vary significantly from cycle to cycle; however, solar maximum activity is usually reliable within plus or minus six months.

Jupiter’s Solar Cycle Precession

The question is, where is Jupiter in relation to the Sun during the solar maximums? The answer is simple. For the last six solar maximum cycles, Jupiter has been approximately twenty-five degrees (25°) further back in its orbit than the previous solar maximum. 

Graphic 2.0 The position of Jupiter in its Orbit for the Recent Solar Maximum Cycles and the upcoming cycle (Planets reflect orbital positions for 25 FEB 2019)

The idea of a connection between Jupiter’s orbit and the solar cycle has been traditionally scoffed at by astrophysicists; however, as more is understood about the dynamics of the Sun’s influence beyond the visible solar atmosphere, scientists are less eager to ignore the possibility. A 2016 German study suggests Jupiter, Venus, and Earth may all play a role in sunspot activity.

If there is a connection between the position of Jupiter and the solar maximum, it raises the question of why? Is it a gravitational link, or is it an electromagnetic link? Why does the solar maximum occur when Jupiter is approximately 25° further behind its position of the last solar maximum? Answers to these questions will certainly lead to more questions.

The answers may come soon. In the meantime, Jupiter is raising some interesting questions. 

Why Are There 360 Degrees in a Circle?

19 Monday Mar 2018

Posted by in All Rights Reserved, Astronomy, Eclipse, History, Photography, Science, solar, Space

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Everyone knows there are 360 degrees in a circle. Why? A circle could have a 1,000° which would make a half circle equal 500° and a quarter circle 250°. Who chose the number 360? Was there a vote? Who do we blame? Inquiring minds want to know!

Two circles getting in each other's way

2017 Total Solar Eclipse from Canyon City, OR

As it turns out there are at least two reasons we use 360° as the number to define a complete circle. One reason has to do with astronomy and the other with mathematics.

360 Degrees? Blame the Babylonians

The Greeks are partly responsible for defining the numerical value for a circle, but really it was the Babylonians. It may even be farther back than the Babylonians, but someone erased their hard drive and now we will never know.

Apparently, the Babylonians loved the number ’60.’ They created a number system using Base 60 (we use Base 10.) The number 60 is amazing because it can be divided into so many factors. 60 can be divided evenly by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 15, 20, 30, and 60. Since the Babylonians loved 60, the fact that a circle can be divided into six equilateral triangles made 360 the best option for defining the numerical value of a circle.

We don’t actually know if it was the Babylonians, but we do know that several prominent Greek mathematicians used 360° as the numerical value for a circle. It is written…in Greek of course.

Star Gazers In a 360 Days

But long before the Babylonians, it was obvious to anyone who looked up at the sky at night that the stars followed a circular pattern through the year. If one noted the position of a star or constellation on a particular night and time, next year that star would be in the same place on the same day and time.

The elapsed number of nights for a full circle? About 360. Anyone who tracked the stars would have noted that the circular pattern of the stars resumed after about 360 days.

The reason we have 360° is most likely because of the speed at which the Earth rotates, (once every 24 hours,) and there are approximately 360 rotations (days) in a year.

Metric Circles?

Believe it or not, there were attempts to make circles metric. It didn’t take. There are some uses for it, but the 360° value is more accepted ‘around’ (that’s a joke) the world.

Time To Stop Changing Time? Why We Need Daylight Saving Time All Year

11 Sunday Mar 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Aging, All Rights Reserved, Astronomy, Daylight Saving Time, Economy, Generational, Government, habits, Health, History, Lessons of Life, Mental Health, Recreation, Reno, Science, solar, Space, Technology, Travel, United States, US History

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Many people dislike the two days of the year we go to or revert from Daylight Saving Time (DST.) It requires changing the clocks and adjusting to the new rhythm of our activity related to the rise and set of the Sun. It is annoying and, as a species, annoyance is a prompt for finding a solution. Perhaps it is time to stop changing time.

A Problem of Degrees

We should recognize that the length of day is only an issue for those living between 30° and 70° latitude. The length of day within 30° of the equator doesn’t radically change from summer to winter. Above 70° latitude, the Sun sets for weeks or months during the winter and there are not many people living that close to the poles.

For those living between 30° and 70° latitude, there is an undeniable problem. Reno, Nevada, USA is at 39° north latitude. At the summer solstice, the day is almost 15 hours long and sunrise is at 5:30 am under Daylight Saving Time. If we did not have DST, the sun would rise at 4:30 am.

A Diurnal Vespertine-Adapted Species

In an agrarian economy, working in the field is easier during daylight hours. In that situation, time is relative to a solar schedule; however, in an interactive urban economy, working in shops and offices is more suitable for a common clock schedule.

After artificial electric light became the standard, and after the population moved into cities, we became a diurnal, vespertine-adapted species. Most of our country’s population works during the daylight hours and participates in non-work activities in the evenings. Today, most people are not active before six in the morning, but they remain active until 10 pm or later.

Sunrise before 6 am disturbs the typical sleep patterns of humans, and light later into the evening is more suitable for evening activities. Daylight Saving Time creates a favorable environment for a later sunrise and more sun in the evening. 

Daylight Saving Time Year Round

Standard Time was traditionally based on the position of the Sun at High Noon. That approximately divided the daylight into Morning and Afternoon. We no longer use High Noon as the foundation of Standard Time; however, it is an artifact of a primarily agrarian economy. Daylight Saving Time was used to adapt the clock to human behavior as we moved from the farms to more urban living.

Time is a human invention. It should serve the needs of humans. It would seem it is time to stop punishing humans with Standard Time and remain on Daylight Savings Time for the entire year.

Magnetic Pole Reversal: Will It Turn Our World Upside Down?

10 Saturday Mar 2018

Posted by in Astronomy, Education, Exploration, Generational, History, NASA, Science, solar, Space, Technology, US Space Program

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The magnetic north and south poles are up to something. It looks like Earth’s magnetic poles are about to swap. It usually happens every 300,000 years or so but it’s been 780,000 years since it last happened. What does it mean for humans? Is this the end of human civilization?

Earth magnetic normal magnetic field (left) and during a swap (right)

Pole Reversal:  Another Y2K?

To answer this question let’s go back to 1984. That is the year that Jerome and Marilyn Murray published a book called Computers in Crisis, changed to The Year 2000 Computing Crisis in 1996. They laid out a problem of computer code that handled dates using only the last two digits of the year. The crisis was that at the moment the year 2000 began, they said all the computer networks around the world would crash. This was known as the Y2K problem.

The Y2K problem was a significant issue; however, because computer codes are constantly being changed, updated, and replaced, it probably would have been resolved without the hyper-scare stories in the media. Computer codes were changed and Y2K came and passed without incident.

That Y2K problem is a good comparison to the North/South magnetic pole reversal issue. There is a problem, but it is a problem that will unfold over hundreds to thousands of years. Most will not notice the effect in the next decade, but there is a significant change coming as soon as the next solar minimum.

Your Magnetic Field is Temporarily Out of Order

The problem is not about the reversal of the magnetic poles. The problem is about the process of the reversal. The magnetic field around Earth deflects cosmic and solar radiation from reaching Earth’s surface. Without this field (or shield) life, as we know it on Earth, would not be possible.

As the poles begin the process of swapping the magnetic field it becomes less organized. This results in the magnetic north and south pole fading and that causes cosmic radiation to come closer to Earth’s surface.

In addition, the magnetic field becomes weaker during solar sunspot minimums. This is when the Sun has few, if any, sunspots and generates less solar flares. This lull in solar activity approximately every eleven years is matched with a similar lull in the strength of Earth’s magnetic field.

Captain! Our Shields Are Down!

Scientists have discovered that the magnetic field is weakening much faster now than in the past. They believe the process of pole reversal, which is overdue by about 400,000 years, has now begun. We are also in the beginning stages of the solar minimum, which will result in an anemic magnetic field for the next two to three years.

Projections of the radiation dosage for this upcoming solar minimum were about 20% above the last solar minimum; however, actual rates are closer to 30% so far.  This is not a major concern, but it does mean that satellites may encounter more radiation that could damage or disable them. It also means that an astronaut only can spend about 700 days in space now than the 1,000 days they could spend in the 1990’s.

Oh Where, Oh Where Will Our North Pole Go?

The poles are on the move thanks to a liquid layer of iron in Earth’s Core.  Earth is already experiencing a strange phenomenon of magnetic weakening across the South Atlantic stretching from Africa to South America. Since we have not experienced this change before, no one can be absolutely sure what odd side effects may occur during the process; however, the only significant concern is increased radiation in Earth’s atmosphere and in orbit.

It’s important to remember that in geologic time frames we are the equivalent of lightning. As problems develop we’re pretty good at responding.

Is There a Planet Nine or Not?

03 Saturday Mar 2018

Posted by in Astronomy, Exploration, NASA, Science, solar, Space, Technology, US Space Program

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Is there a Planet Nine in our solar system? After Pluto got kicked out of the planet club most of us woke up to the reality that there were only eight planets. There was no reason to believe that some mysterious Planet Nine out there that met the requirements of the club. We would have seen by now, correct?

Planet Nine and other orbits looking from above the solar ecliptic

Nothing New In Planet Discovery

All the planets except Uranus and Neptune were discovered by Babylonian astronomers, although the six innermost planets were most likely noted by humans before writing was invented. Uranus was discovered in 1781, and Neptune was found in 1846. Despite all the advances in telescopes and space exploration no other ‘planet’ has been discovered in our solar system. So, why would anyone think another planet might exist?

Odd Ducks Out There

If the Sun and the planets were formed from a disk of debris, then most objects would be aligned in that disk or solar ecliptic plane, or the plane that the major planets are on as they orbit the Sun. Collisions between asteroids can send them off in unusual orbits that don’t align with the solar ecliptic.

However, there are a group of objects beyond Neptune that have unusual orbits. These objects are called trans-Neptunian objects. These are on a different plane and defy easy explanation. In addition, the Sun itself is a bit odd in its rotation. The Sun seems to rotate slightly off the ecliptic plane that all the planets follow.

Doing the Math

Two astronomers, Chad Trujillo and Scott S. Sheppard, tackled the odd orbits of the trans-Neptunian objects and discovered that some of the orbits of the objects could be explained if there were a large planet farther out in the solar system. That didn’t sit well with other astronomers so they decided to prove them wrong.

Planet Nine’s likely orbit and the orbits of trans-Neptunian objects

Konstantin Batygin and Michael E. Brown from CalTech decided to re-do the calculations of Trujillo and Shepard. They eliminated some of the objects studied because they might be influenced by Neptune’s gravity. That left six objects to study. To their surprise, they discovered that a planet ten times the size of Earth in an off-plane orbit much farther out than Neptune explained the orbits of the six objects to a 99% degree of certainty.

Is There a Ninth Planet?

Despite the mathematical support, there is no Planet Nine…yet. An analogy would be that if someone picked a date ten years in the future, say 3 March 2028, and was asked if that day would fall on a weekday. Without a calendar to look at it would be hard to say ‘yes’ or ‘no.’ It is very likely, but it is not certain until there is proof.

We currently have no proof of another planet, and spotting Planet Nine will be difficult at best. It would be a relatively small target with almost no sunlight reflecting off of it. It couldn’t be seen with today’s telescopes in either the visible or infrared spectrums. Even if we could determine where it is in its orbit, it would take a probe as many as twenty years to get into the Planet Nine neighborhood.

So the answer remains ‘no.’ There is no Planet Nine…but stay tuned.

Five ‘Facts’ About the Equinox?

24 Saturday Feb 2018

Posted by in Astronomy, Random, Science, solar, Space, United States

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At 9:15 am PDT on the 20th of March, we will reach the Spring Equinox, or more correctly, the Vernal Equinox. People in the northern hemisphere refer to this as the beginning of Spring. It is also referred to as:

  1. the date when day and night are equal
  2. the date when the Sun shines on both the North Pole and the South Pole
  3. the date when the Sun rises exactly East and sets exactly West at every location on the Earth
  4. the date you can balance an egg on its end
  5. the date you won’t cast a shadow.

Two of these ‘facts’ are false, one is “well, sort of,” fact, one is “mostly true,” and one is true.

Timelapse From Space:  Seasonal Progression of Sunlight on Earth

The Date of Equal Day and Night?

Nope. While the length of day and night are almost equal on the day of the Vernal Equinox, it’s not actually true unless you’re closer to the North or South Pole. At the poles and the farther away from the poles, the less this is true.

For example, in Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, in the Arctic Circle, in 2018 the date that comes closest to being equal in day and night hours is the 19th of March (day = 11:58:51 hours long.) In Reno, Nevada, USA, the date day and night are almost equal  is the 16th of March (day = 11:59:28 hours long.) In Sydney, Austrailia that date is the 24th of March (day = 12:00:38 hours long.) In Bogata, Columbia it was the 21st of February (day = 11:59:59 hours long.) 

The Date the Sun Shines on Both Poles?

Yes, and on the North Pole, it spirals up from the horizon, around the viewer until the Summer Solstice when it begins to spiral downward, setting after the Autumnal Equinox in the Fall. The same is true for the South Pole, only the Sun rises at the Autumnal Equinox and sets after the Vernal Equinox.

South Pole sunrise

Sunrise on the South Pole

The Date the Sun Rises Dead East and Sets Dead West?

Mostly true. Its explanation makes my head hurt, but I’ve been able to use pencils on a globe on its axis with a single light source to prove it to myself. You can read multiple descriptions on the Internet but have pain reliever at the ready.

However, there’s a catch. The viewer has to have an unobstructed view of the horizon and be near or at sea level. The Sun’s trajectory is at an angle compared to the horizon and if the view of the true horizon is blocked the Sun will appear to rise or set at a location that is off from true East or West.  

The Date You Can Balance an Egg On Its End?

Long proven to be false…and stupid at the same time.

The Date of No Shadows?

Sort of true, but only if you’re on the equator at exactly high noon. Not many people want to do that…it’s hot at the equator. Who wants to stand out in the Sun at noon just to NOT see your shadow? Besides, the people who might want to do that are still trying to balance an egg on its end.

Snowpack is No Longer a Viable Water Supply

10 Saturday Feb 2018

Posted by in About Reno, College, Crisis Management, Education, Generational, Global warming, Government, Higher Education, History, Passionate People, Science, solar, Technology, United States, Universities, US History, Water

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The Sierra Nevada mountains. In the winter, cold, moist air off the Pacific Ocean is pushed up over them. The air loses the ability to hold the water vapor as it rises up and snow precipitates out. The snow piles up and waits for Spring and as the Summer approaches the warm air melts the snowpack and water flows. That is the source of the water supply for California and western Nevada. Sometimes.

When water flows in the Sierra, life is good

Snowpack: The Alpha and Omega of Western Water Management

Sometimes the snow doesn’t fall. The creeks and rivers dwindle. The water level in the lakes and reservoirs drop and a drought begins. It is a cycle that has repeated many times in the western United States, but not when so many people have been dependent on the annual water flow.

CA Drought Wet Year History

Not Good: CA drought versus wet years

In this part of the country, it is all about the snowpack. If the Sierra Nevada mountains have a good snowpack, there is water. If not, well… This is the model of water management in California and western Nevada and in the last few decades have proven that it is not a good one. Drought is not an exception in the West, but the rule. As the population grows, the Sierra Nevada snowpack becomes the enemy.

Global Warming:  Raining on the Snowpack Parade

There is growing problem with the reliance on the snowpack. Global warming. The impact of the Earth’s atmosphere retaining more of the Sun’s energy may be that snowfall may become rare, or non-existent in temperate climates.

March 2010 Snowpack
March 2015 Snowpack

Beyond the issue of drought is the issue of rain versus snow. The West has reservoirs and lakes, but that storage is not enough if the precipitation falls as rain, not snow. Rain also is not as efficient as snow in replenishing the deep aquifers that have been used to supplement the surface water.

Up the Creek With No Water

Drought is the new normal in regions in the West dependent on snowpack. The current response has been to push for water restrictions. This is not a flawed approach as the water users have become accustomed to the mindless waste of fresh water; however, reducing the use of water is not going to solve the problem.

Global warming is causing the precipitation to fall as rain, not snow. If water management in California and Nevada can’t learn to transition off the snowpack model it won’t matter how much water is saved. You can’t reduce the use of water when there is no water to save.

SIDE NOTE:  Creator of the Snowpack Survey

On the University of Nevada (UoNV) campus in Reno, Nevada there is a building named the ‘Church Fine Arts Building.’ Some even make the mistake of calling it the Church ‘of’ Fine Arts, which might be appropriate for some who dedicates his or her life to the Arts.

Dr. Church in Sierra Nevada range

Dr. James E. Church on a snowpack survey

However, the building is named after the UoNV professor, Dr. James E. Church, who died in 1959. He taught Latin, German, and Fine Arts at the university from 1892 to 1939. He was not employed as a scientist at the UoNV; however, Dr. Church invented the snowpack survey that is still used today to determine the water content of the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada range. 

It is said that he and his wife’s ashes are in the cornerstone of the Church Fine Arts Building.

Dr. James E. Church

[COUNT TO 500:  499th Article in PAULx]

Total Lunar Eclipse January 31…Western United States

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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The last day of January will start with the second Full Moon of the month (a.k.a.:  a Blue Moon.) It will then transform into a total lunar eclipse. Asia, the Pacific, and western North America will be able to watch the Earth’s shadow move across the Moon.

However, there’s a catch. It is an early morning eclipse in western North America and it will happen just before the Moon sets in the west. Locations with mountains to the west may see the Moon set before the total lunar eclipse ends.

In some places, the rising Sun will be brightening the eastern sky as the totality ends. The Sun will be rising on Earth as the Earth’s shadow moves off of the Moon. The Earth’s Shadow is almost four Moon diameters wide, but for most U.S. cities it will pass through the southwest quadrant of the shadow. Totality will last just over an hour.

Location of Moon in Earth’s shadow at Maximum Eclipse for Reno, NV

Eclipse When?

The times for the eclipse for several western U.S. cities:

       City            TOTALITY    Begins         Maximum           Ends         Moonset

Denver, CO (MST)                  5:51 am           6:29 am            7:07 am        7:10 am

Salt Lake City, UT (MST)   5:51 am           6:29 am            7:07 am        7:41 am

Phoenix, AZ (MST)               5:51 am           6:29 am             7:07 am        7:27 am

Reno, NV (PST)                      4:51 am           5:29 am             6:07 am        7:11 am

Los Angeles, CA (PST)       4:51 am           5:29 am            6:07 am        6:54 am

San Francisco, CA (PST)  4:52 am           5:30 am           6:08 am        7:20 am

Portland, OR (PST)             4:51 am           5:29 am            6:07 am        7:37 am

Seattle, WA (PST)                 4:51 am           5:29 am            6:07 am        7:41 am

 

Telsa Powerwall Has Product-Killing Questions Unanswered

04 Thursday Jan 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Branding, Business, Communication, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Ethics, Green, Honor, Management Practices, Print Media, Public Image, Public Relations, Respect, Science, solar, Technology, Traditional Media

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What is Tesla trying to hide about its Powerwall?

I have great respect for a person who pushes boundaries and engages in future-vision projects. We currently lack the great visionaries of the past who established our nations great growth in technology and commerce.

That said, I have no respect or love for someone who toys with great ideas in order to build up consumer and investor hopes for personal profit while remaining silent on the issues that may eventually kill the great idea.

Enter Elon Musk.

I have expressed my reservations about his idea to build a space program to go to Mars, and I have additional reservations about his Falcon Heavy booster that is scheduled to launch sometime later this month.

But it is Tesla’s ‘Powerwall‘ product that has gaping issues that seem to be ignored in all the hype and mystic of Elon Musk. Two issues have to do with lithium-type batteries and their limitations and dangers.

Fantasy Cycles?
Tesla has a ten-year warranty on their Powerwall system. That sounds great, but it is the same as saying if you leave raw fish on the counter at room temperature it will be safe to eat in a year.

There are rules in chemistry. Batteries are defined by these rules. Every battery has a limited lifespan even if it is not used. Batteries also have a limit to the number of discharge/charge cycles it can undergo before they are no longer effective in holding a charge.

Lithium-ion batteries are superior to other types of batteries because they hold more charge per kilogram and they can be recharged. This makes them a good choice for a home power application.

However, lithium-ion batteries begin to deteriorate the moment they have been built. They lose about 5% of their charge capacity per month, and even if they are never used the lifespan of a typical lithium-ion battery is two years.

According to one source, lithium-ion batteries in the Powerwall are limited to between 800 to 1000 discharge/charge cycles. Assuming the Powerwall undergoes only one cycle per day, its useful lifespan is less than three years. Considering that with both normal use, and the natural deterioration of the batteries in the Powerwall, it will fail in less than two years.

But they’re under warranty for ten years, so who cares?

The chemical limitations of the lithium-ion battery are a fact. If Tesla strategy is to deal with massive warranty claims, then both investors and customers should be made aware. If Tesla has come up with some miracle technology they need to explain how they have overcome the chemical limitations.

The danger is that Tesla is aware of the limitations and is preparing for an alternative strategy such as bankruptcy in three or four years after they have squeezed the profits out of the company. Without further explanation, an alternate business strategy is the most likely scenario.

Burn Baby Burn
There is a reason that the FAA required a ban on the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 tablets on commercial flights. Bad lithium-ion batteries.

Lithium-ion batteries can overheat and burn or explode under certain conditions. If punctured they can burst into a fire that cannot be stopped by normal fire suppression tactics. The only way to prevent a lithium-ion fire from doing severe damage to the materials around it is to have a non-burnable barrier that can withstand the heat of a lithium fire.

The Powerwall encased in a metal, temperature-regulated, weather-proof housing. To my knowledge, there have been two tests performed on the Powerwall and its casing. Both tests were performed by a trade organization known as the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA.) The NFPA is not a government, nor regulatory agency, and no information was found as regarding Tesla’s involvement in the design or limitations of the test.

One test performed a test of overheating one cell group to the point of failure. The fire did not spread to the other cells. The second test applied a steady flame to the exterior of the Powerwall. In that test, all cells overheated and failed, but the Powerwall did not explode, nor did the internal lithium fire breach the casing; however, the Powerwall was not mounted on, nor near any combustible material.

The Powerwall does include a system of heating and cooling to keep the batteries within the range required to prevent failure leading to a fire; however, I cannot find any test of a complete cooling system failure in a hot environment, other than the controlled test done by Tesla and the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA.)

I cannot find any testing as to the result of a puncture to the Powerwall. YouTube offers many videos on what happens when a lithium-ion battery is punctured. A puncture test of the Powerwall has not been released to the public, to my knowledge. 

If the Powerwall does not have extensive testing in various environmental situations then it may be impossible to know how dangerous the Powerwall is to mount on or near a wall that is combustible.

To my knowledge, Tesla is silent on this issue. On their website, I can find no information as to these issues about lithium-ion batteries or the safety testing done on the Powerwall casing.

In fact, Telsa is extraordinary reactive to journalists and media. In 2015, Tesla security guards used their ATV to reportedly ram a vehicle with journalists from the Reno Gazette-Journal, smashed their vehicle window, and cut their seatbelt to remove them, throwing them to the ground.

The journalists were taking pictures of the Tesla Powerwall plant under construction in Nevada. According to the newspaper’s attorney, Tesla security guards demanded the camera equipment and held the journalists against their will, created an alternate story that the journalist attacked them, and held them until the sheriff’s department arrived.

Image of inside of Reno Gazette-Journal’s vehicle after encounter with Tesla security guard

The incident suggests that Tesla is extremely sensitive to any unmonitored, unbiased release of information about its Powerwall product. The question remains: Why?  

Nevada’s Pot Business About to be Smoked

03 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Aging, Branding, Business, Education, Employee Retention, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Green, Health, Higher Education, History, Honor, Management Practices, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, Recreation, Respect, solar, Space, Taxes, Technology, Travel, Universities, US History

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Welcome to Nevada, where citizens watch other people get rich

Nevada has relied on being the rebel for decades, and it always fails to provide a reliable economy.

When gambling was taboo in the nation, Nevada became one of the few places people could gamble. People flocked to Nevada to gamble. Nevada had a ‘gaming’ industry.

In 1988, the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act opened the door to legalize gambling on Indian Reservations, and over the next three decades California built up an Indian Gaming industry that didn’t require taking chances with a trip to Nevada. Nevada’s gaming industry stagnated.

When a quick marriage and/or a quick divorce was taboo in the nation, Nevada made divorce easy. People flocked to Nevada to officially end or begin a relationship. Nevada had a marriage industry.

Then divorce became a fact of life and most of the rest of the country decided that government should be trying to inhibit the desires of a couple, so they made marriage and divorce easier. Couples no longer had to travel to Nevada to say their vows, or go their separate ways and Nevada’s marriage and divorce industry collapsed. 

Gambling, divorce, prostitution have all been part of Nevada’s economic plan, and they all have created more problems than money for its citizens. It’s a consistent trait of Nevada’s leadership in pursuing big money that comes with little or no foundation in what is best for the average citizen.

For the last six months, Nevada boosted its economy with legalized recreational marijuana sales. Again, people from California flocked to the state to get what they couldn’t get at home. Pot. And again, Nevada’s economic boost will be short-lived as California recreational pot business gets underway in 2018.

Nevada is a state where a few people become filthy rich and pay very little in taxes. Nevada compounds the problem by prostituting themselves for marginal industries that are not stable and corporations that seek to avoid paying their share of taxes while reaping big profits.

The result has been that Nevada has no money to improve schools that are ranked near the bottom in the United States. Nevada’s poor education record has resulted in businesses needing a highly educated workforce to go elsewhere despite the seductive tax environment.

Nevada has to stop lusting after short-term economies and start building a real economy…or watch the hopes and dreams of its citizens go up in smoke.

Understanding Global Warming and Cold Weather

31 Sunday Dec 2017

Posted by in About Reno, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Green, Health, Higher Education, Politics, Science, solar, Taxes, Technology, Universities

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Few things define a person’s intelligence than the ability to understand complex issues. Few things define a person’s stupidity than to take a complex issue and use a short-circuit of logic to make it sound simple.

Every winter some people prove their lack of intelligence and say something like, “I just shoveled five inches of global warming off my driveway.” This makes other small-minded people giggle, and the speaker feel like he has just proved he is smarter than all the intelligent, educated people.

He is not.

Global Warming and Winter Weather 101
To understand the threat of global warming a person first has to understand the effect of the Earth’s 23.5° tilt of its axis off the solar plane. I just lost 30% of the stupid people.

The Earth’s tilt causes one hemisphere (north or south) to receive more radiant energy than the other in the few months around the solstices. This means that one of the polar regions is receiving external heat from the Sun, and the other is receiving no solar energy because it is in darkness. I’m about to lose another 20% of the stupid people.

The cold air in the polar region would stay exactly where it is if it weren’t for the Laws of Thermal Dynamics. Ah, there they go. Okay, were down to the last 50% of the stupid people.

Among other things, thermal dynamics explain the behavior of the energy exchange between two substances, and Fluid Dynamics help to explain how a difference in temperature in a substance like air causes cooler air to mix with warmer air. I just lost another 25% of the stupid people. It was the ‘fluid dynamics’ thing, wasn’t it?

The greater the difference in temperature, the greater, or more actively, the warmer air will mix with the cooler air. If the last 25% of stupid people can just hang on, I’m almost there.

Because there is more carbon dioxide suspended in our atmosphere, it absorbs more of the solar radiation, and that increases the temperature of the air. That causes more water to vaporize and it also absorbs solar radiation and that further increases the temperature of the air. Damn, I lost another 10%.

During the northern hemisphere’s winter, the north polar region has a lot of cold air that desperately wants to mix with the warm air to the south to equalize the temperature between cold and warm. The greater the temperature difference, the more powerful the movement of the air toward each other. Okay, l just lost another 10%.

I see the blank faces of the last 5% of stupid people. Cold air is cold air. It remains cold as it moves toward the warm air. It is only after it mixes with warmer air (i.e.; storms) that the temperature of the two air masses begin to equalize. Oh, there go the last 5% of the stupid people.

For the rest of us, global warming creates warmer air masses and that can lead to the increased movement between the two air masses resulting in stronger winds and more cold air moving farther south. Also, warmer air can retain more water vapor, so when cold and warm air meet, the storms can result in higher precipitation.

Can Venus Be Made Habitable?

25 Monday Dec 2017

Posted by in Green, Science, solar, Space, Technology, Travel

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Venus: Too hot, too much atmosphere

Venus may be the future of Earth and may also hold the answers to global warming.

Earth’s atmosphere is 78 percent nitrogen, 21% oxygen, (O₂,) and 1% other gases including carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor. Even though CO₂ is considered a trace gas in our atmosphere it is a major player in the absorption of energy from the Sun. Nitrogen and oxygen are ‘invisible’ to the Sun’s radiation, so the energy from the Sun passes through the two gases without being absorbed.

The atmosphere of Venus 96% CO₂ and 3.5% nitrogen, with 0.5% other gases, including water vapor. Venus’ atmosphere is also extremely dense. The pressure at the surface of Venus is the same as the pressure at 1,000 meters (3,000 ft.) under the surface of Earth’s ocean.

Venus is also hot. The CO₂ absorbing the Sun’s energy retains the heat in a runaway greenhouse effect that keeps the temperature at 462 °C (864 °F,) both day and night.

The interesting, and terrifying fact is that the carbon found on Earth is roughly equal to the carbon found on Venus. The difference is that Earth stores its carbon in the ocean, and in calcite deposits that consists of dead marine life that settled in the bottom of an ocean and became a sedimentary rock formation.

There is also a nitrogen problem. Even though nitrogen makes up 3.5% of Venus’ atmosphere, it is four times the amount of nitrogen in Earth’s atmosphere.

Venus could be Earth Like if:

  • Almost all of the atmospheric carbon and three-quarters of the nitrogen could be transformed into solid carbon and solid nitrogen.
  • Some of the oxygen from the CO₂ could be liberated for the atmosphere.
  • The rest of the oxygen could be liberated to combine with hydrogen in the upper atmosphere to create water.
  • The Sun’s energy could be reduced (blocked) to allow Venus to cool.
  • Venus’ rotation could be sped up and a slight tilt in the axis to match Earth’s rotation and axis.

Numbers 4 and 5 are beyond our current technology, however, solving the 1 through 3 issues are a matter of finding or creating an organism that could float in venus’ upper atmosphere and convert CO₂ to O₂. This could help scientists find a way to remove the excess carbon from Earth’s atmosphere and prevent global warming from becoming a runaway greenhouse effect on our planet.

It should be noted that Earth’s temperature is a delicate balance between incoming and outgoing energy. We don’t know at what point a runaway greenhouse effect kicks in and destroys the energy balance that maintains a near constant temperature on Earth; however, there is a point of no return where evaporating water vapor and CO₂ will absorb more energy from the Sun than what is radiated back into space. If we reach that point, Earth will become another Venus and the human race will cease to exist.

A New Year’s Earthquake?

21 Thursday Dec 2017

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Earth Science is one of my life’s passions. It was my first choice of study in college, but I gave up it when I discovered that calculus was required for any science degree.

However, I am a creature that is more fascinated by the world around me, than the details of societal norms. I don’t have a degree in science, but I do a lot of research on what real scientists have learned. That is why I’m interested in the orbits of the Sun and the Moon and the potential of an increase in earthquake activity starting near Christmas and continuing through the first week in January.

The gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon do not cause earthquakes. Earthquakes are caused by the movement of crustal plates at and near the surface of our planet. Anyone who claims that the Sun and Moon cause earthquakes is dancing on fringe science.

However, as the plates grind against each other they create stress and at times lock up. It is when a region of locked plates break free that an earthquake occurs. The bigger the movement after the release, the bigger the earthquake.

The gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon affects the Earth. This pull may have trigger effect on some earthquakes under certain conditions. It would be a situation where a region is near the release point, and the tug of the Sun and/or Moon gives the needed boost to start the movement of the stressed area.

Currently, the Earth is approaching its annual perihelion (closest approach) to the Sun. Perihelion will officially occur at 9:34 pm PST on 2 January 2018. At the same time the Moon is approaching its closest approach to Earth (perigee) for all of 2018 at 1:48 pm on 1 January.

The Sun and the Moon will be on opposite sides of the Earth around New Year’s Day, so the gravitational pull will be most intense at that time, potentially stretching areas of the Earth’s crust that are ready to break free. Will this cause and increase in earthquakes? I can’t answer that. No one can. But it will be interesting to track.

As always, preparation for an earthquake in those areas prone to have earthquakes, and in coastal areas is always wise, regardless of the orbits of the Sun and the Moon.

Happy Winter Solstice!

A Prayer To My Gods

18 Sunday Dec 2016

Posted by in Ethics, Generational, Government, Lessons of Life, Politics, Pride, Religion, solar

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_dsc6558-2Great Father Sun, you are the origin, the center, the focus, you are the constant. I see you as you cross the sky. I feel your warmth. You make the food grow and all life possible. Without you, we could not see. Without you, there would be no rain. When you light the sky above me, I see your power. At night you shine on our Mother Moon. 

Great Mother Earth, you are our source, our foundation, the root of all life on our planet. You give me a home. You give me air to breath, water to drink, and food to eat. You give me all that I need. Without you I would be dust and rock floating in the vast cavity of space.

_dsc6362-2Mother Moon, you are the giver of life. You are the spark that lit the fire of life on Earth. Your touch tilted the Great Mother Earth and gave us seasons. Your pull creates the tides. Without you, the Great Mother Earth would be uninhabitable.

I pray forgiveness for what we have done. I believe that you sought to have us progress forward, moving from beasts that were motivated by lust and desire, to creatures of intelligence and compassion that sought harmony and grace.

Instead we have devolved back into beasts. We have brought on shame and failure to not only ourselves, but to all life. We have no excuse. We know what is proper, and what is not, but we have chosen to embrace the improper.

Great Father Sun, Great Mother Earth, Mother Moon, I know the seasons are necessary for life, and I know, just as the seasons bring warmth in the summer and cold in the winter, so to the seasons of humanity wax and wane.

This is a season of darkness for humanity, but I pray that you will intercede. The darkness of this season is hurting and killing the innocent, not the weak. Those of money and power seek to destroy, not build, and those who gave them power have failed as human beings and celebrate the destruction.

Intercede for those who need you. Intercede for the honor of life. Intercede because it is the correct thing to do. Intercede because those who have intelligence know the danger of violent aggression and know that it is not the answer to battle the unethical, wicked, and stupid.

Great Father Sun, Great Mother Earth, Mother Moon, it is time to act on our behalf. 

Science Versus Stupidity

31 Sunday May 2015

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climatecartoon2

Earth: Victim of Stupidity

“Science doesn’t have all the answers.”

It’s hard to know where to start when someone makes a statement like the one above. ‘Science’ isn’t an entity, so it can’t possess anything, but beyond the poor grammar is the issue of motivation and failed logic.

When a person makes this statement their motivation is often in defense of religion. The idea seems to be that if science doesn’t have all the answers, then religious and mythological beliefs are valid. Using this logic one could say that because nitrogen doesn’t make up all of the Earth’s atmosphere, (air is 78% nitrogen,) then the air we breathe is all fairy dust.

No intelligent person would say that science has all the answers. We are just scratching the surface of understanding the mechanisms by which our universe operates. Even after science has shown us how one system works, scientists may discover that there are other factors that affect that system. We are on a path of discovery and we have a long way to travel.

However, there are no shortcuts. Just because science hasn’t fully explained everything doesn’t give anyone license to invent an explanation that is based on opinion or agenda. This includes explanations that were created over a thousand years ago by people who didn’t even understand that urination and defecation are the end process of digestion.

All science begins with asking a question. Why? How? What? In the process of answering those questions, the scientific process rules some things out. By narrowing down what isn’t a cause or a factor the scientist begins to clarify the important causes or factors. Religion ignores this process and immediately jumps to an answer that lacks any support other than, “Because I say so!”

I have no problem with anyone’s mythological beliefs…until the believer wants the rest of society to abide by those beliefs. Public policies, laws, education and regulations that exist or are governed by someone’s mythological beliefs is pure stupidity, even if a majority believe in the mythology.

Those that don’t ‘believe’ in evolution, global warming, vaccinations, or any other scientifically based fact are stupid. I’m not calling anyone names, I’m saying they lack intelligence and logical thinking. They are incapable of making good decisions. They are, by definition, stupid.

Believe in God? Fine. But, giving credibility to religious beliefs over scientific fact defines one as being stupid. Making religious beliefs part of societal laws is mass stupidity.

Smoke Adds To Global Warming

18 Thursday Sep 2014

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Morning smoke haze over Reno, Nevada caused by California King fire

September morning smoke haze over Reno, Nevada caused by California King fire

Seventy-eight percent of the Earth’s atmosphere is nitrogen, and twenty-one percent is oxygen. Both of these gases do not absorb infrared radiation. The heat from the Sun passes through nitrogen and oxygen. When scientists refer to global warming they are not talking about the two gases that make up 99% of our atmosphere.

Global warming is what happens in one percent of the atmosphere. Carbon, water vapor, and other trace gases/particles absorb infrared radiation from the Sun, and from solar infrared radiation that.is reflected off the Earth’s surface. One percent of our air holds the balance between continuity of our climate and rapid variances.

Some are proud of their role in causing devastating environmental change.

Some are proud of their role in causing devastating environmental change.

This summer one of my friends, Dr. Narayan Adhikari, completed his doctoral theses. He studied the rate of infrared absorption in the atmosphere by using instruments that regularly measured the air over various locations in northern Nevada. His research included two significant events that impacted the air quality in the Reno, Nevada area. One event was a dust storm in June of last year and the other was smoke from the Rim fire in California in August of 2013.

Both of these events gave him the opportunity to measure the impact of infrared absorption when the atmosphere has a dramatic increase in amount of aerosol particulates. The results of his studies indicate a significant increase in heating of the atmosphere by infrared absorption during such events. 

This debunks the idea that clouds, smoke, and other ‘sun-blocking’ events might help cool the atmosphere. Smoke from fires, such as the King fire currently burning in California will trap more heat and cause increased global warming.