3rd From Sol

~ Learn from before. Live now. Look ahead.

3rd From Sol

Tag Archives: Solar Flares

Blindsided: End of U.S. Solar Observation Capabilities?

29 Monday Nov 2021

Posted by Paul Kiser in NASA, Politics, Science, solar, Space, Space Weather, Technology, United States, US Space Program

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

ACE, DSCOVR, NASA, Satellite, SOHO, Solar Flares, solar maximum, solar observatory, Solar storm, space weather, STEREO, Sun, sunspot cycle, Sunspots, The Sun

The United States currently has four primary solar observation satellites keeping vigil on the activity of the Sun. They are ready to observe and test dangerous solar flares that might cripple anything that would be at risk with an electromagnetic pulse. Without them, we are left to stand on the shore of space, watching every flicker of the Sun and hoping it isn’t signaling our doom.

These four satellites do more than observe the Sun. Their orbit is at the L1 Lagrange Point directly between the Earth and the Sun. A point where Earth’s gravitational influence equals the Sun’s. These satellites will experience anything the Sun throws at Earth, hours before we will receive it.

However, all four of these satellites are operating beyond their planned lifespan and most are using technology that predates smartphones. We risk being blindsided by solar storms at the same time we are about to enter another solar maximum.

NOAA Space Weather Program Manager William Murtagh made a sheepish attempt to warn a Congressional committee in February of 2020 by saying that they would be “hurting a little bit” if one of the key satellites failed.

Extreme ultraviolet image of the Sun by SOHO

Solar Observation Satellites Today

Currently, the United States has the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Wind solar wind observatory. All three are beyond their planned mission time. DSCOVR is approaching seven years of operation of a five-year planned mission. ACE has over 24 years of operation for a planned five-year lifespan. Finally, the Wind satellite has been operational for over 27 years of a three-year planned mission.

The U.S. teamed with the European Space Agency (ESA) for the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite that offers near real-time imaging of the Sun in multiple wavelengths on its website to the public. That satellite was launched in 1995 for a planned two-year mission. It has been in operation for 26 years.

There is one additional mission that was intended on giving Earth a 360° view of the Sun using two satellites, one positioned ahead of Earth’s orbit and one behind. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO A & B) pair of satellites were launched in 2006. STEREO B was positioned to see the activity of the Sun prior to it rotating towards Earth. STEREO A was positioned to observe the activity after it moved beyond Earth’s view.

Imaging on the STEREO website reminds us of what we don’t have.

Of the two satellites, STEREO B was critical in giving scientists on Earth advance warning of hazardous solar activities; however, we lost contact with that satellite in 2016. Both satellites exceeded their two-year expected lifespan and STEREO A is still in operation.

20+ Year Old Technology

In 2001, Windows XP was released. That program is newer than three of the four primary solar observation satellites currently in service. Smartphones didn’t even exist in the late 1900s and yet, pre-2000 technology is what we currently depend on for early warning of hazardous solar activity.

NASA has been able to squeeze every byte of usability out of our aging satellites but we are at risk of losing most, if not all, of our current solar observation capabilities. Between simple deterioration and future solar storms, we are gambling the safety of our planet with nothing to replace our eyes on the Sun until 2024 at the earliest.

Cameras, communications, and satellite technology have dramatically changed since the end of the 20th century. Our need for updating and upgrading our space-based solar observation abilities has become critical.  

The Money Problem

Both liberal and conservative politicians have made their careers on defunding our key space programs. Conservatives have done the most damage in the aerospace field by slashing NASA programs that don’t blow up or ram something while also filling NASA with people who bend to their will.

At the same time, conservatives have drained the federal government of money for publically controlled space programs and given it to commercial space programs that shield their operations from public scrutiny. The result has been to create Soviet-like space programs that seek to profit off reinventing what we were already able to do decades ago with a government-run space program. 

A Perfect Storm

The risk of a severe coronal mass ejection (CME) that would overload our satellites, electrical transmission wires, cars, computers, phones, etc., increases during the solar maximum that occurs approximately every eleven years. Scientists have been surprised by the early start of the new solar cycle that will reach maximum activity around June of 2023.

Aging satellites, outdated technology, lack of funding for replacement satellites, and an increased risk of solar activity, all create the perfect storm of factors that could lead to the United States having a reduced capability to issue warnings of severe solar weather. In fact, we are probably already too late to do anything about it.  

Why Should We Care About Sunspots Anyway?

29 Monday Aug 2011

Posted by Paul Kiser in parenting, Science

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Carrington Event, CME, Solar Flares, Sun, Sunspots

Why Should We Care About Sunspots Anyway?.

Parents need to be excited about science if they want their students to be excited and engaged.  This blog is dedicated to help parents get up-to-date on science through an exploration of science topics.  This article explores the significance of the dynamics of the Sun and how it impacts Earth and humans.

It’s Baaack: Sunspot Maximum Here It Comes

25 Thursday Mar 2010

Posted by Paul Kiser in Information Technology, Science

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Events, Solar Flares, Sunspots, The Sun

by Paul Kiser

Updated March 25, 2010

After one of the quietest periods of solar activity in known history, the Sun has roared into a new sunspot maximum cycle.  With the increase in sunspot activity is the increased risk of solar flare activity that could impact human-created systems both in orbit and on the ground.   This occurs almost exactly 150 years after the biggest known solar flares that disrupted telegraph communications and created unprecedented auroras around the world.

A Solar Minimum to Remember

A Quiet Sun - April 12, 2009

In April 2009, solar physicist Dean Pesnell stated, “We’re experiencing a very deep solar minimum,” based on the number of days without recordable sunspots in 2008 and 2009.  That statement was before a late summer episode of 51 days in a row of no sunspot activity that ended on August 31, one day short of tying the record of 52 days.  The April 1, 2009, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) news release also stated that the solar wind pressure was at a 50-year low and the Sun’s extreme ultraviolet radiation was 6% less than the last solar minimum in 1996.

On September 3rd, NASA issued a news release titled, “Are Sunspots Disappearing?”  Solar Researcher Matt Penn states in the release, “Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year.  If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015.”   However, even Penn admits that they have little historic data to conclude that this is a permanent trend.

Solar Activity Returns

A new Solar Cycle begins - November 21, 2009

However, by late in September the Sun started showing signs of new sunspot activity. The upturn in activity this year is dramatic. In 2009, 29% of the days had a visible sunspot. So far this year 93% of the days have had sunspot activity.  The expected peak of the current activity will be in 2012-14.

No one knows if the unusually quiet Sun of 2008-09 will mean be a quieter, gentler solar maximum, or whether the Sun will bounce back with a significantly more active period, but a scientific panel for National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is betting on a quieter solar maximum than the last one in 2000-01 (see Table A) and no one believes we will have a solar cycle that will match the activity of 1859.

The Sun is Back - February 8, 2010

A 500+ Year Event
Almost 150 years ago the Sun’s activity appeared to set the sky on fire with auroras that could be seen as far south as Cuba and the Hawaiian Islands. The New Orleans Daily Picayune reported:

“Towards half past eight o’clock a singular phenomenon took place. The horizon from north to northeast became of a deep crimson hue, which expanding slowly, made the sky appear as if lighted by a Bengal fire…”

On August 28, 1859 and again on September 2, 1859, solar flares created so much electromagnetic energy on Earth that telegraph communications were temporarily disrupted.  At one point operators in the northeast were only able to communicate by detaching the power source to the telegraph lines relying on the solar flare energy captured by the wires between stations.  From 8:30 to 11:00 AM on September 2, 1859, telegraph operators between Boston, MA and Portland, ME discovered that by detaching the batteries that powered the telegraph lines they could send messages using the electromagnetic energy caused by a solar flare.  In addition to rendering most lines nearly useless the solar event created sparks from telegraph lines and telegraph equipment causing fires in multiple locations.

However, it has been determined that the magnitude of the August/September 1859 solar events are rare in human experience.  Through ice core samples going back 500 years scientists have determined that the 1859 solar flares were 6.5 times more powerful than any other flare event in known history.

Preparations for a Major Solar Flare Event

The Sun Today - March 24, 2010

In 1859 there were relatively few technological devices that would be affected by the electromagnetic energy from the Sun and had the event occurred 15 years earlier it is likely that the only note of it in history would be the unusually bright auroras.  Today the threat is much greater as power grids, pipelines, and copper phone and data lines would all act as a conduit for the energy of a major solar flare event.  Among the greatest concern is the loss of many, if not all, satellites in a major solar event.  To respond to these concerns a new field of Space Weather has emerged to monitor and respond to any potential, although unlikely, massive solar flare.

There are three satellites watching the Sun 24/7/365.   The first, called the Solar & Heliospheric Observatory or SOHO, maintains an orbit around the Sun that is directly between the Sun and Earth.  Two other satellites, the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory or STEREO satellites, are in the same orbit as Earth is around the Sun, but STEREO Behind trails about 45 degrees behind Earth and STEREO Ahead is 45 degrees ahead of Earth (See Figure A).

Figure A - Locations of STEREO Ahead and STEREO Behind

These three satellites give scientist a view of almost the entire surface of the sun.  Any flare threatening Earth would be identified and evaluated at least 15 hours prior to affecting the planet.  Most flares take 60 or more hours to reach Earth, but the flare of September 1-2, 1859 took an unusually rapid 17 hours from ejection from the Sun to interaction with the Earth.

To prepare for these solar related incidents private industry and government agencies have spent years creating a response plan that will minimize the effect of a major solar event on the nation’s vital systems.  Access to the Space Weather reports are also available to the general public at through both NASA and NOAA.

What’s Next?
No one disputes that the next few years should see an increase in solar activity.  Nor does anyone dispute that humans are more vulnerable to a major solar event.  However, as the Sun shakes off the quiet of the past few years it is likely we will experience a quieter solar maximum than 2000-01, and no one predicts a repeat of the solar storms of 1859 anytime soon.

Other Pages of This Blog

  • About Paul Kiser
  • Common Core: Are You a Good Switch or a Bad Switch?
  • Familius Interruptus: Lessons of a DNA Shocker
  • Moffat County, Colorado: The Story of Two Families
  • Rules on Comments
  • Six Things The United States Must Do
  • Why We Are Here: A 65-Year Historical Perspective of the United States

Paul’s Recent Blogs

  • Dysfunctional Social Identity & Its Impact on Society
  • Road Less Traveled: How Craig, CO Was Orphaned
  • GOP Political Syndicate Seizes CO School District
  • DNA Shock +5 Years: What I Know & Lessons Learned
  • Solstices and Sunshine In North America
  • Blindsided: End of U.S. Solar Observation Capabilities?
  • Inspiration4: A Waste of Space Exploration

Paul Kiser’s Tweets

What’s Up

March 2023
S M T W T F S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  
« Jun    

Follow Blog via Email

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 1,651 other subscribers

Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

 

Loading Comments...