3rd From Sol

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Tag Archives: Solar storm

Blindsided: End of U.S. Solar Observation Capabilities?

29 Monday Nov 2021

Posted by Paul Kiser in NASA, Politics, Science, solar, Space, Space Weather, Technology, United States, US Space Program

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ACE, DSCOVR, NASA, Satellite, SOHO, Solar Flares, solar maximum, solar observatory, Solar storm, space weather, STEREO, Sun, sunspot cycle, Sunspots, The Sun

The United States currently has four primary solar observation satellites keeping vigil on the activity of the Sun. They are ready to observe and test dangerous solar flares that might cripple anything that would be at risk with an electromagnetic pulse. Without them, we are left to stand on the shore of space, watching every flicker of the Sun and hoping it isn’t signaling our doom.

These four satellites do more than observe the Sun. Their orbit is at the L1 Lagrange Point directly between the Earth and the Sun. A point where Earth’s gravitational influence equals the Sun’s. These satellites will experience anything the Sun throws at Earth, hours before we will receive it.

However, all four of these satellites are operating beyond their planned lifespan and most are using technology that predates smartphones. We risk being blindsided by solar storms at the same time we are about to enter another solar maximum.

NOAA Space Weather Program Manager William Murtagh made a sheepish attempt to warn a Congressional committee in February of 2020 by saying that they would be “hurting a little bit” if one of the key satellites failed.

Extreme ultraviolet image of the Sun by SOHO

Solar Observation Satellites Today

Currently, the United States has the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Wind solar wind observatory. All three are beyond their planned mission time. DSCOVR is approaching seven years of operation of a five-year planned mission. ACE has over 24 years of operation for a planned five-year lifespan. Finally, the Wind satellite has been operational for over 27 years of a three-year planned mission.

The U.S. teamed with the European Space Agency (ESA) for the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite that offers near real-time imaging of the Sun in multiple wavelengths on its website to the public. That satellite was launched in 1995 for a planned two-year mission. It has been in operation for 26 years.

There is one additional mission that was intended on giving Earth a 360° view of the Sun using two satellites, one positioned ahead of Earth’s orbit and one behind. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO A & B) pair of satellites were launched in 2006. STEREO B was positioned to see the activity of the Sun prior to it rotating towards Earth. STEREO A was positioned to observe the activity after it moved beyond Earth’s view.

Imaging on the STEREO website reminds us of what we don’t have.

Of the two satellites, STEREO B was critical in giving scientists on Earth advance warning of hazardous solar activities; however, we lost contact with that satellite in 2016. Both satellites exceeded their two-year expected lifespan and STEREO A is still in operation.

20+ Year Old Technology

In 2001, Windows XP was released. That program is newer than three of the four primary solar observation satellites currently in service. Smartphones didn’t even exist in the late 1900s and yet, pre-2000 technology is what we currently depend on for early warning of hazardous solar activity.

NASA has been able to squeeze every byte of usability out of our aging satellites but we are at risk of losing most, if not all, of our current solar observation capabilities. Between simple deterioration and future solar storms, we are gambling the safety of our planet with nothing to replace our eyes on the Sun until 2024 at the earliest.

Cameras, communications, and satellite technology have dramatically changed since the end of the 20th century. Our need for updating and upgrading our space-based solar observation abilities has become critical.  

The Money Problem

Both liberal and conservative politicians have made their careers on defunding our key space programs. Conservatives have done the most damage in the aerospace field by slashing NASA programs that don’t blow up or ram something while also filling NASA with people who bend to their will.

At the same time, conservatives have drained the federal government of money for publically controlled space programs and given it to commercial space programs that shield their operations from public scrutiny. The result has been to create Soviet-like space programs that seek to profit off reinventing what we were already able to do decades ago with a government-run space program. 

A Perfect Storm

The risk of a severe coronal mass ejection (CME) that would overload our satellites, electrical transmission wires, cars, computers, phones, etc., increases during the solar maximum that occurs approximately every eleven years. Scientists have been surprised by the early start of the new solar cycle that will reach maximum activity around June of 2023.

Aging satellites, outdated technology, lack of funding for replacement satellites, and an increased risk of solar activity, all create the perfect storm of factors that could lead to the United States having a reduced capability to issue warnings of severe solar weather. In fact, we are probably already too late to do anything about it.  

Earth’s Close Call of 2012

21 Friday Mar 2014

Posted by Paul Kiser in Crisis Management, Information Technology, Science, Space, Technology

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1859, 2012, Carrington Event, CME, Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar storm, Sun

The Blast of 2012: Doomsday that missed

The Blast of 2012: Doomsday that missed

Remember it was all going to end in 2012? Remember the movie? It didn’t happen; however, we almost were hit with a worldwide disaster that scientists are just now confirming.

On July 23, 2012, the a massive explosion took place on the Sun. It sent two coronal mass ejections (CME’s) at Earth’s orbit that were 10 to 15 minutes apart. After almost two years of analysis, scientists have determined that those events were near the magnitude of two CME’s in the Fall of 1859. During the 1859 solar storm auroras were seen as far south as Hawai’i and electrified telegraph wires that sparked fires.

Like the 1859 CME’s, the event of 2012, raced out from the Sun faster than a typical solar storm reaching Earth’s orbit the next day. Fortunately, Earth didn’t pass through that region of space for another nine days.

The CME’s did hit the STEREO-A platform in advanced Earth orbit. This satellite and it’s twin, STEREO-B monitors the far side of the Sun. Data from its encounter with the major storm suggests that had the CME’s hit Earth, anything with wiring would have been in danger of an overload from the magnetic energy of the storm. Transformers would have blown and virtually everything plugged into the grid would have experienced a massive power surge.

Fortunately, people have been planning for this possibility, which is why we now have multiple satellites monitoring the Sun’s every snap, crackle, and pop. Power and telephone systems based on wire transmission would be shutdown at the onset of a major solar storm. Unfortunately, that offers minimal protection for the consumer who would lose power, then be hit with a massive surge as wires became a conduit for the energy of the solar storm.

A miss is a miss, and nothing significant happened from the solar event. Still, it was a shot across our bow, and we should keep in mind that awareness of space activity is critical. It’s not paranoia if the universe is out to get us.

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