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charter schools, Nevada Schools, overcrowding, population, population growth, private schools, public charter schools, public schools, religious schools, taxes, Washoe County, Washoe County School District
Nevada’s Washoe County School District is missing children. About 6,500, and no one seems to have noticed. In the last decade (2008 to 2017,) the student population in Washoe County Schools has increased by 291 students. That is a half of one percent increase (0.05%) in ten years. The population of Washoe County has increased by almost eleven percent (10.7%) during the same time period. If the student population grew at the same rate the school district would have 6,500 more students than it does. Where are the missing children?
GRAPH 1.0 – WCSD Growth vs Washoe County Population (1,000’s of people)
Mystery of the Missing Students
The population of Washoe County increased by over 44,000 people from 2008 to 2017. One might expect that the Washoe County schools would have increased by more than 291 students. If the student population had kept pace with the Washoe County population growth, there should be over 70,000 pupils instead of just under 64,000.
Table 1.0 – WCSD student population growth compared to projected growth (Based on Washoe County population. NOTE: All figures are from WCSD reports.)
Some of the missing students can be found in private schools and public charter schools. Private schools in Washoe County enrolled 3,419 students in 2016-17; however, total enrollment in private schools in Nevada have not changed significantly during the last ten years. Public charter schools account for some of the missing students, but they only enrolled 2,753 students in Washoe County during the 2016-17 year.
Assuming that public charter schools absorbed 1,000 new students during the last ten years, and private schools absorbed 500, there is still approximately 5,000 missing students. It is possible that the growth in Washoe County was primarily adults without children. If that is the case, it may indicate that families aren’t moving to Nevada.
Flat Student Growth Saved Schools
There is a silver lining to the flat growth in Washoe County schools. Prior to 2008, the district was overcrowded and facing a crisis. The flat growth allowed time to ease some of the overcrowding and end some of the desperate measures to handle the situation.
However, Nevada may be facing a bigger crisis. If families are choosing not to move to the State it may be that Nevada’s poor school rankings have finally sealed its fate. No one wants to raise a family in a State that has underfunded schools.
The reduced number of children per family is well documented – https://www.childtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/53_fig2.jpg. The assumptions that school population will grow in direct proportion to population is incorrect. The trend is across the industrialised West, so not just a Nevada trend.
The trend you mention is a fact; however, your graphic actually proves my point. According to the statistics provided by the school district, the percentage of students to population would be 0.66% as compared to the 22.2% shown on the graph for the year 2020. There is a small issue that the graph is for under 18, but even doubling the number of students to make up for the ages 0-5 would indicate that the population growth in Washoe County consisted of only 1.2% under the age of 18, versus the expected percentage of at least 22.2%. Where are the missing 21% of the children?
I’m having trouble following the numbers cited in your reply. Here’s what I see from your post:
Washoe pop 2008 = 410k
Washoe student pop 2008 = 52k
Washoe student/tot pop % = 12.7%
Washoe pop 2008 = 460k
Washoe student pop 2008 = 52k
Washoe student/tot pop % = 11.3%
A decline of 1.4% does not seem to be out of line with demographic trends of fewer and later children (as opposed to any “missing” children). If you go back to my demographic trend chart, the numbers are:
USA pop 2010 = 309m
USA <18 pop 2008 = 74m
USA <18/tot pop % = 24.0%
USA pop 2008 = 334m
USA <18 pop 2008 = 74m
USA <18/tot pop % = 22.2%
Erosion of 1.8%. The decline in students is almost exactly the same amount as the decline in under 18s on a national level. So nothing special is going on in Nevada.
First, you have the incorrect numbers. Go back and look at the table in the article. Second, you’ve switched comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges and instead are comparing apples to oranges. You are comparing 2008 student population to 2008 WC population, then comparing 2017 student population to 2017 WC population. The comparison is 2008 student population to 2017 student population (a 0.5% growth) to 2008 WC population to 2017 population (a 10.7% growth.)
The growth of the greater population should account for a similar growth of the student population and it does not.
You seem to be making nonsensical comments that are intended to troll my articles and waste my time pointing out the obvious fallacy in your logic rather than offer a different viewpoint. If you are just trying to troll me, then I will block you from commenting.