SpaceX Booster Crisis

13 Monday Jan 2020

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Ethics, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Layoff, Management Practices, NASA, Public Image, Public Relations, Reduction in Force, Space, SpaceX, Technology, The Tipping Point, United States, US Space Program

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commercial space, Dragon Crew Capsule, Elon Musk, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Gywnne Shotwell, human spaceflight, manned spacecraft, space flight, SpaceX

Missing SpaceX Boosters?

A rocket is required to achieve orbit. Without it, everything else is just talk. SpaceX is dependent on the Falcon 9 Block 5 SpaceX booster, but in 2019 their launch schedule decreased dramatically, in part, because of a lack of booster inventory. Nothing has changed for 2020 and, in fact, the situation may be worse.

The decline and fall of SpaceX’s launch schedule

SpaceX will have 13 (Space Flight Now,) 22+ (Space News,) or 33 (Wikipedia) launches in 2020 depending on what source is used. SpaceX’s President, CEO, and CIC (Cheerleader in Chief) Gwynne Shotwell claimed in September that her company will likely have two Starlink launches per month in 2020. This does not include the test launches required for human spaceflight, nor the paying customers already scheduled.

The problem is that SpaceX doesn’t have enough boosters to come anywhere near the volume they brag about to the public.

In March of 2019, it was apparent that SpaceX was facing severe financial problems. A dramatic cut in SpaceX employees at their California rocket assembly plant in January of last year resulted in a drastic downsizing of booster production and launches for 2019.

SpaceX Booster Deficit: It’s a Math Problem

SpaceX introduced the Block 5 Falcon 9 booster in May 2018. Six Block 5 boosters were used in ten launches in 2018 and five launches in 2019. Last year, after the layoffs, SpaceX put up seven new Block 5 boosters, four of which, (B1052, B1053, B1055, and B1057,) were specifically built for use in the Falcon Heavy configuration. The Falcon Heavy boosters have never been used on single booster launches. The three non-Falcon Heavy boosters were responsible for seven of the 13 SpaceX launches in 2019.

We’re almost through the hard math.

This means SpaceX has nine Block 5 boosters available. But they don’t.

Of the nine Block 5 boosters, 3 (B1047, B1050, and B1054) have been lost (sacrificed or destroyed.) Another booster (B1046) will be destroyed in the upcoming crew capsule abort test. One booster (B1051) hasn’t been seen since it left Vandenberg Airforce Base after its flight in June of last year. Two of the remaining boosters (B1048 and B1049) have been flown four times and one (B1056) three times.

This leaves one booster (B1059) with less than three flights use and one new booster (B1058) coming on online in 2020. SpaceX doesn’t have the inventory of boosters needed to accomplish even a moderate launch schedule this year.

SpaceX Exec: Pay No Attention To Reality

In May of last year, the top executive of SpaceX either had no understanding of the company’s launch capabilities or publicly lied about the projected launch schedule. Shotwell said that SpaceX would have a total of 18 to 21 launches in 2019, not including the Starlink satellite launches. SpaceX had 13 total launches including two Starlink launches.

SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell: Doesn’t know how many rockets her company can launch

SpaceX had no major disasters or delays that would explain how Shotwell would overestimate the number of launches by over 150% with only seven months left in the year.

Fantasyland Scenarios

Elon Musk and SpaceX’s Shotwell have been known for their boasts of SpaceX’s future. In a conference call to the news media in 2018, Musk was quoted to say that the Block 5 Falcon 9 would be “…capable of at least 100 flights…” and they would be able to launch a Block 5 booster within 24 hours of recovery. He also said that all this would happen as early as 2019.

In July, Teslarati reported that SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller announced that by the end of 2019, they would launch a Block 5 booster for a fifth or sixth time. In the same article, the Musk fansite writer Eric Ralph calculated that SpaceX would launch an additional 12 to 19 times in the second half of 2019.

Today, only two Block 5 boosters (B1048 and B1049) have been launched more than three times (B1046 is scheduled for its fourth launch on 18 January.) The ten-week turnaround time for the Block 5 boosters has also failed to meet Musk’s predictions of a 24-hour turnaround.

What is Possible For 2020?

In the short term, SpaceX has the booster capacity to launch six times in the first quarter if boosters B1048 and B1049 can be used a fifth time and if a new booster comes online before April. If not, then SpaceX would be hardpressed to launch four missions by the end of March.

Currently, only two missions have assigned boosters (B1046 for Dragon Inflight Abort test and B1058 for Dragon crewed test flight.) Without a booster assigned, it is unlikely that any other announced mission in January or February is feasible.

Musk has also claimed that the Block 5 booster can easily perform ten launches; however, as with his other claims, there is no reason to believe the Block 5 can survive the extreme temperatures and stress of ten launches and landings without a significant overhaul.

For the remainder of the year, SpaceX depends heavily on new boosters to keep flying as the current booster supply is almost exhausted.

Is SpaceX a Dead Program Walking?

Last year’s sudden layoff of 577 SpaceX employees indicated corporate financial trauma. That event was followed by an anemic 2019 launch schedule. Nine of those launches were for commercial customers, but one was a free launch because of a previous failed launch. Two launches were for test purposes and two were for the Starlink system that will not be revenue-producing until the satellite system is established and operational.

For 2020, the first five scheduled flights consist of two test flights and three non-revenue producing Starlink launches. SpaceX does have paying customer launches during 2020, but much of the schedule consists of Starlink or small customer satellites on RideShare launches.

In 2017, Musk confidently proclaimed that SpaceX would have 30 to 40 launches per year. That number was overstated and the company seems to be ‘filling in’ their launch schedule with straw customers that may not have the deep pockets SpaceX needs. They also seem to be offering deep discounts in order to attract customers.

The January 2019 layoff, the dramatic drop in launches in 2019, and the lack of Block 5 booster inventory would seem to indicate that SpaceX is in a desperate situation.

No Pressure, But If the Falcon Heavy Fails, So Does SpaceX

31 Sunday Mar 2019

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Crisis Management, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Ethics, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Human Resources, jobs, labor, Management Practices, NASA, Public Image, Public Relations, Science, Science Fiction, Space, SpaceX, Technology, The Tipping Point, US History, US Space Program

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commercial space, Dragon 2, Dragon Capsule, Elon Musk, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, International Space Station, manned space program, manned spacecraft, space business, space exploration, space flight, Space X, spaceflight, SpaceX

SpaceX has put themselves in a corner. Next week’s launch of the new Block 5 Falcon Heavy has to go almost flawlessly or much, if not all, of what they have will go down in flames with the rocket.

SpaceX 1 September 2016 Static Test Explosion – Ignition

SpaceX’s Financial State

SpaceX played a risky game last year focusing on making money in commercial launches. That should have been a big boost to their revenue stream, but in January they announced layoffs. SpaceX also announced a sudden cut in the number of launches in 2019. [Source: Business Insider 21 Jan 2019 – Dave Mosher] That might indicate that SpaceX was offering bargain prices to its customers to land contracts but losing money in the process.

One line in a statement made to Business Insider by a SpaceX representative regarding the layoffs is telling:

This action is taken only due to the extraordinarily difficult challenges ahead and would not otherwise be necessary.

SpaceX Statement

Taken at face value, SpaceX’s rationale for the massive layoffs in its rocket manufacturing division sounds like a proactive business strategy, but why be so forceful in the justification? They insist that the “only” reason for the layoffs is for the “challenges ahead.” SpaceX then repeats itself at the end of the sentence by saying, “and would not otherwise be necessary.”

SpaceX 1 September 2016 Static Test Explosion – Upper Booster Engulfed

The Organization Doth Protest Too Much

The defensiveness of the statement indicates that the layoffs are necessary because SpaceX is already in trouble. By saying the layoffs were to prepare for a grim future, they may have confirmed that they were a reactionary, not proactive move.

SpaceX 1 September 2016 Static Test Explosion – Entire Rocket/Pad Engulfed

The Falcon Heavey Gambit

Up to now, SpaceX has landed customers on bargain pricing, but it is likely that they desperately need to attract customers that can pay top dollar. Enter the U.S. military. SpaceX has yet to gain the full confidence of the U.S. Air Force for their military satellites. Elon Musk may have thought that one successful launch using the old Block 4 boosters would have the U.S. military eating out of their hand, but that didn’t happen.

Now SpaceX desperately needs another spectacular success of the Falcon Heavy to convince those with deep pockets that their bird is equal or better than the competition.

But what if the next Falcon Heavy launch is a failure?

SpaceX 1 September 2016 Static Test Explosion – Upper Stage with payload fall to the ground

What’s at Risk for SpaceX

It is unlikely that SpaceX will experience the worst-case scenario of the complete loss of the Falcon Heavy and its Arabsat 6A satellite, but what would happen if the nightmare happened?

No space cred for the Falcon Heavy. The Falcon Heavy would not be in consideration for heavy-lift payloads by the military, nor private customers at any price.

No human-rating cred for Block 5 redesign. NASA requires seven successful launches of the Block 5 booster without a significant redesign to gain a human rating. The 15 November 2018 launch of Booster 1047 was the first with newly designed tanks. Since then, SpaceX has had six launches with the new design. The Falcon Heavy would be the seventh launch. Failure would mean another delay in obtaining the human rating for the Block 5 booster.

Loss of two Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters and one Block 5 core. The two side boosters would be the biggest loss. They are planned to be reused on the next Falcon Heavy flight in July. That flight would have to be delayed for months and SpaceX can’t afford that delay. Remember that layoff? That hit the rocket manufacturing plant the hardest.

More expense with no revenue. Insurance would cover most, if not all, of the loss of the vehicle, but it’s not going to provide more revenue. More cuts would have to follow, pushing back the launch schedule even farther.

Loss of pad, more delays. It would be bad if SpaceX lost the vehicle in flight, but in the worst-case scenario, the loss would occur on the pad. It could be a year or more to rebuild the launch pad. The destruction of the pad and the two side boosters would bring into question whether SpaceX could make the contracted cargo deliveries to the ISS.

Testing of the Dragon 2 crew capsule flights would be jeopardized. If the April launch of the Falcon Heavy fails, Boeing would probably be able to coast into NASA’s crew capsule contract.

Enough Pessimism, What If the Falcon Heavy Flies!

A win for SpaceX would be a successful launch and recovery of at least the two side boosters, but that only buys them three months. The April Falcon Heavy launch is Act I of a two-act play. Act II is a follow-up flight in July of the Falcon Heavy reusing the two side boosters from the April launch. Part of the show is to demonstrate that the boosters can be turned around and relaunched in a matter of weeks.

The U.S. Air Force may give SpaceX a heavy-lift contract even before the July flight of the Falcon Heavy; however, it is likely that they will negotiate a below market price and it may be contingent on both the April and July flights meeting all expectations.

False Bravado

Less than a year ago Elon Musk was boasting that in 2019, SpaceX would have a 24-hour turnaround on a Block 5 booster. [Source: NASASpaceflight.com 17 May 2018 – Michael Baylor] Eight months later SpaceX was cutting their labor force by ten percent. Rather than two launches of the same booster in 24 hours, this year SpaceX is struggling to have more than one launch per month.

SpaceX fans worship Elon Musk’s great vision but there is a fine line between vision and false bravado. Musk is known to continually overstep that line. Now one misstep with next week’s Falcon Heavy launch and SpaceX is risking a lot more than the loss of one satellite.

SpaceX 2019 Launch Schedule Realities

28 Thursday Mar 2019

Posted by Paul Kiser in Communication, Communism, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Ethics, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Government, Management Practices, Marketing, NASA, Public Image, Public Relations, Science, Soviet Russia, Space, SpaceX, Technology, The Tipping Point, United States, US Space Program

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Boeing, cargo, commercial space, Dragon 2, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, human-rated, International Space Station, manned space program, Russia Space Program, Soviet space program, Space, space business, space flight, Space Program, Space Station, spacecraft, SpaceX, Starliner

SpaceX Retreating Launch Schedule

SpaceX has had three successful launches so far this year. The problem is that one launch per month is a major retreat from the 21 launches it had in 2018. Looking forward, SpaceX next three quarters will not improve. Based on the available information they will only attempt ten more launches before the end of the year.

[NOTE: This is a follow-up story to Tuesday’s article – SpaceX Implosion]

The One and Only: The 1st and last Falcon Heavy launch one year ago

Soviet Style Space Program…Everything is on a Need To Know Basis

Much like to old Soviet Space program, SpaceX avoids making public announcements regarding its launch plans. On its website, SpaceX lists the contracts it has by the customer or satellite name in alphabetical order but doesn’t give a date or time for the launch. Most of the information on SpaceX launches is derived from secondary sources and legally required filings. Here is a list of what is known about the rest of the 2019 SpaceX schedule:

ªNL – Launch not likely in 2019.
¹The original target date for launch.
²Author’s best estimate of the likelihood of launch on that day, or during that time period based on multiple sources.
³Launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

[Primary Source: Spaceflight Now Secondary Sources: Wikipedia, RocketLaunch.live, NASA, Brian Webb]

Based on multiple sources, four of these launches are unlikely to occur in 2019. The Starlink flight [14 May] has disappeared from most launch schedule websites. This is a program that would seem to be the lowest priority and would add more expense to SpaceX with little or no revenue in return.

There are some reports that the late June Dragon 2 abort test flight is being pushed back and that the 25 July Dragon 2 test flight with a crew will be no earlier than November at the earliest. This would make the first Dragon 2 delivery of a crew to ISS unlikely until 2020. [Source: TASS 22 Mar 2019] Comments from the unnamed space representative said that the Dragon 2 parachute system would have to be replaced. If true, the launch abort test in June could be significantly delayed and the crew test would hang in the balance of a completely new parachute system, making the crew test unlikely even by November.

Finally, the Sirius Radio Satellite schedule for the 4th quarter of 2019 would seem unlikely based on the flights being pushed back or already scheduled in the 4th quarter.

Falcon Heavy Headaches

Another major issue in the SpaceX schedule is the second Falcon Heavy flight now scheduled for June. Everything would have to go perfectly on the 7 April Falcon Heavy flight for any chance of meeting the planned June flight as two of the three boosters on the April flight are to be reused for June flight. Any issues with the two side boosters in April would require SpaceX to find a replacement booster(s.) It is questionable if SpaceX has any Block 5 boosters to spare.

In addition, the launch pad has to be configured for a Falcon Heavy launch and then reconfigured for a normal Falcon 9 launch. That means weeks of extra work between launches that render the pad useless.

Dragon 2 Human-Rating Race

SpaceX has had an advantage in the race to provide a human-rated space capsule. It already has a cargo capsule that is already operational for unmanned flights to and from the International Space Station (ISS.) Since the crewed Dragon 2 capsule will be under autopilot as its default, the basic spacecraft needed little conversion to fly its first test mission to ISS and back.

Dragon 2 Cargo Capsule – already flying

Many looked at this month’s [2 March 2019] Dragon 2 test flight as a major milestone; however, it really was a cargo flight with seats, a dummy, and an Earth-shaped plush toy. It really proved little about the human-rating of the capsule, but it was a big show for SpaceX.

Dragon 2 Crew Capsule – take out the cargo, add seats and touchscreens

The reason that it’s significant that Russia news agencies are reporting a major delay in Dragon 2 testing is that Russia would have to be contracted to provide ISS crew flights if the United States doesn’t have a human-rated capsule by the end of this year. Since SpaceX doesn’t usually report problems in their space program to the United States media, the first report of the schedule being significantly pushed back would likely come from Russia.

If it is true that SpaceX can’t launch the first crewed test until 2020, it would be devastating to its Dragon 2 program and open the door for Boeing’s Starliner to be tested and rated by the end of this year.

What’s SpaceX’s Problem?

SpaceX seems to be in financial trouble. The ten percent reduction in the staff indicates a severe cash flow problem. The 40% reduction in the launch schedule would indicate the financial issues are more severe than they would publicly acknowledge.

2018 was a year of primarily paying the bills with commercial launches. That may have actually cost SpaceX in the long term. Now they are in a heated race with Boeing to win the crew capsule business and because they only have one test launch of the Falcon Heavy they didn’t land the military contracts they desperately need. Now they are trying to prove that the Falcon Heavy is reliable with two launches in three months. SpaceX fans applaud the company on its brilliant strategy but this year their strategy isn’t working.

SpaceX’s Implosion

26 Tuesday Mar 2019

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Communism, Crisis Management, Ethics, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Government, Management Practices, Mars, NASA, Public Image, Public Relations, Science, Soviet Russia, Space, SpaceX, The Tipping Point, US Space Program

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Block 5, booster, booster landing system, commercial space, Elon Musk, F9, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, manned space program, reusable booster, space business, space exploration, space flight, Space X, SpaceX, Starship

SpaceX on Self Destruct

Elon Musk is the Wizard of Odd desperately telling the public to pay no attention to the SpaceX problems behind the curtain. Admittedly, the bad news at SpaceX is usually buried by Musk’s talent to distract attention by offering some new Tweet that causes his fan club and space mediaites to swoon, but even Musk is challenged by the train wreck in progress.

SpaceX Starship Down – Image credit: Evelyn Janeidy Arevalo

Image credit: Evelyn Janeidy Arevalo

First, the Good News

SpaceX has successfully launched three rockets this year. The three bright spots of those launches are:

the 2 March the Dragon 2 capsule demo (no crew) flight to the International Space Station (ISS) and back
the 22 February, third launch of a reusable Falcon 9 (F9) Block 5 booster
three successful launches

Successful launches might seem to be a basic expectation but in the case of SpaceX, the lack of a launch failure is great news.

SpaceX Downsizing Nightmare

The most alarming news is that SpaceX has laid off about 10% of its employees. In an article in Business Insider, [21 Jan 2019] Dan Mosher reported the according to a notice required by California law, 93% of those jobs eliminated were front line workers and only 7% were managers or supervisors. This cuts into the core of SpaceX’s ability to put a product into space.

This also means that SpaceX’s effort to develop new technology will be impacted as experienced workers have now left the company taking their knowledge and skills with them.

2019 SpaceX Schedule in Retreat

In 2015, SpaceX had 7 attempted launches with one failure. In 2016, SpaceX had 8 attempted launches with no failures, but one rocket blew up on the pad during a static fire test. In 2017, they had 18 attempted launches and no failures. In 2018, they had 21 attempted launches and no failures. [Source: Wikipedia – Launches]

This year SpaceX has only had three launches in the first quarter, and only 10 launches scheduled for the remainder of 2019. [Source: Spaceflight Now 25 Mar 2019] This means that SpaceX will have no more than 13 launches this year which almost a 40% drop in launch attempts from last year. Another source lists 14 [See Wikipedia – Launches above] remaining launch attempts this year; however, SpaceX has some obvious launchpad [Source: NASA Spaceflight.com 6 Mar 2019 – M. Baylor] and booster reuse conflicts that would make that schedule nearly impossible.

Regardless, SpaceX 2019 launch schedule will be dramatically smaller than 2018. The reduction is because SpaceX doesn’t have the resources and/or customer orders to maintain or grow its business. Either way, SpaceX is in trouble.

SpaceX Begging for Contracts?

The layoff notice came three months after it was reported [Source: Space News 10 Oct 2018 – S. Erwin] that SpaceX was excluded from $2 billion worth of U.S. Air Force heavy-lift rocket contracts that went to three competitors. Within two weeks of that announcement, Eric Ralph of Musk’s fan site, Teslarati, [25 Oct 2018] reported that SpaceX had quickly landed two private satellite launches for the Falcon Heavy, but he didn’t report the value of the contracts.

Musk is known for offering below bargain prices and grand claims to his company’s customers to attract business and this sudden rebound of two heavy-lift private contracts of an undisclosed value had all the trappings of Musk offer-they-couldn’t-refuse.

This was followed last month in a Forbes [20 Feb 2019] article by Elizabeth Howell, reporting that SpaceX and veteran military contractor United Launch Alliance (ULA) each won a three rocket contract from the Air Force. The ULA contract was for $442 million, but the SpaceX contract was essentially a buy-two-get-one-free contract of $297 million.

SpaceX can’t afford to lose money and still launch rockets. If that is what has happened it is a strategy that will eventually destroy the company from the inside out.

The Falcon Heavy Gap

SpaceX’s spectacular Falcon Heavy debut last February has been followed by a year of silence. This behavior was characteristic of Musk’s tendency to rely more on grandiosity and less on substance in his business ventures. The Falcon Heavy test flight buoyed the company’s public image, but the lack of a follow-up test left the question of whether the first Falcon Heavy was luck or skill.

Next month, SpaceX will be the second launch the Falcon Heavy, but this will be for a paying customer. Caleb Henry, reporting for Via Satellite, [18 Sep 2015] said that SpaceX won the contract for the Arabsat 6A satellite three and a half years ago. According to Spaceflight Now [25 Mar 2019], the launch was originally scheduled for the first half of 2018, then delayed multiple times to the 7 April 2019 date. Since this contract was agreed upon two and a half years before the first Falcon Heavy flew, the customer committed to SpaceX on blind trust. In business, you don’t do blind trust contracts unless you’re getting an exceptional deal.

Sandra Erwin of Space News [25 Mar 2019] reports that the U.S. Air Force will be closely monitoring the second launch of a Falcon Heavy rocket to evaluate SpaceX’s ability to perform as promised. This indicates that customers are still not sold on the Falcon Heavy.

Booster Hype

Emre Kelly of Florida Today [5 Aug 2018] wrote that Musk has boasted that the Falcon 9 Block 5 booster will be the ultimate in cost savings. He has said that SpaceX will be able to launch, land, and relaunch it quickly with minimal refurbishment and inspection. He also claims that each Block 5 booster will be reused a minimum of 10 times, and up to 100 with ‘moderate refurbishment.’

However, the reality of the Block 5 boosters seems to suggest they are not as reusable as stated. The next scheduled launch [7 April] will use two new Block 5 boosters and a new Block 5 core booster. After that, the launch currently scheduled for 25 April will use a new Block 5 booster. The subsequent scheduled 16 May launch will be a second-time use of a Block 5 booster first flown earlier this month. The reuse of the Block 5 boosters isn’t evident in the SpaceX schedule.

Three F9 Block boosters seem to be retired (1046, 1047, and 1049) after a handful of launches. One booster (1054) was intentionally destroyed, one booster is planned to be destroyed (1048), and another failed to reland (1050.) The question about cost savings from reuse and minimal refurbishment remain for a private space organization offering bargain prices and laying off workers.

F9 Block 5 Boosters History/Status [Source: Wikipedia – Boosters]

- - 1046 – Successfully launched and recovered 3 times/not schedule for further service
  - 1047 – Successfully launched and recovered twice/not scheduled for further service
  - 1048 – Successfully launched and recovered 3 times/scheduled for June 2019 launch and destruction
  - 1049 – Successfully launched and recovered twice/not scheduled for further service
  - 1050 – Successfully launched once, failed to land
  - 1051 – Successfully launched and recovered once/planned for relaunch [May 2019]
  - 1052 – Planned for next two Falcon Heavy launches [April, June 2019]
  - 1053 – Planned for next two Falcon Heavy launches [April, June 2019]
  - 1054 – Successfully launched once, no recovery
  - 1055 – Planned as Falcon Heavy core launch [April 2019]
  - 1056 – Planned for launch [April 2019]
  - 1057 – Planned as Falcon Heavy core launch [June 2019]

Too Many Irons, Too Little Fire

SpaceX is a horse with many riders, each pulling in a different direction. Instead of focusing on innovative spacecraft engineering, or heavy-lift rockets, or human-rated capsules, or commercial and military satellites, or deep space exploration, SpaceX tries to have its hand in it all. The result is a chaotic mess of programs that wax and wane in priority to the management of the organization.

It is a rebirth of the Soviet-style space program of secrecy and public image stunts without the financial resources or management style that produces high quality, successful programs. Musk’s volatile leadership [Source: Reuters 30 Oct 2018 – E. Johnson, J. Roulette] has led to a space organization coming apart at the seams.

Will SpaceX’s Implosion Cost Lives?

Elon Musk seems to follow a path of metaphorically pushing harder on the accelerator when the charge on his high tech lithium batteries are running low. Musk has a reputation of lashing out at employees, demanding long hours, and pushing for strict deadlines. [Source: CNBC 18 Oct 2018 – R. Umoh] The problem is that Elon Musk doesn’t make the rockets, his workers do. Soviet Russia learned the hard way that high pressure in the space industry adds high risk for those depending on the workers on the ground.

After a two year delay, 2019 is the year that SpaceX is supposed to put humans in space. That is not a task for an organization in distress.

SpaceX 2018 Report Card: C+

31 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Ethics, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Government, Mars, NASA, Public Image, Public Relations, Space, SpaceX, The Tipping Point, United States, US Space Program

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commercial space, Dragon Capsule, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, manned space program, Northrop Grumman, reliability, reusability, space exploration, space flight, space travel, spaceflight, SpaceX, Zuma

Last February I wrote that SpaceX had three “must do” things in 2018 to prove that all the self-promotion and bragging is justified. It’s time to look back and see how SpaceX did in achieving these critical milestones.

SpaceX Roadster in Space: A symbol of a company going nowhere fast

No. 1 – Consistency in SpaceX Payload Delivery: B

SpaceX had 21 launches this year. All of them successful, meaning they didn’t blow up in the first few minutes. This was three more launches than the previous year. One of the launches was the test flight for the Falcon Heavy rocket, but the rest were largely for SpaceX customers.

There was only one payload that did not make it into orbit. The Zuma military satellite was shrouded in secrecy, which means no one had to take the blame or acknowledge the payload failure. A report indicates that SpaceX was not to blame, but there are discrepancies in the live reporting by the SpaceX Launch Announcer that indicate a failure of the SpaceX fairings to deploy on time.

That gives SpaceX a 95% success rate, which would seem to be great, but with billions of dollars invested in payloads, one failure is too many. SpaceX gets a B.

No. 2 – Prove Falcon Heavy is Reliable: D+

SpaceX had a major publicity win with the first launch of Falcon Heavy rocket last February. The stunt of launching a Tesla Roadster was a stroke of public relations brilliance that overshadowed the fact that no additional Falcon Heavy launches followed the single success.

The next Falcon Heavy launch is scheduled for March of 2019. If all goes well, SpaceX will be one step closer to proving reliability, but SpaceX has not made its case to the people who can afford to pay SpaceX to launch their satellites.

Another Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to be launched in April, but those are the only two Falcon Heavy launches scheduled in 2019. The fact that the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) announced in late October that it awarded a Heavy Lift contract to SpaceX’s competitor, United Launch Alliance (ULA) indicates that SpaceX is not considered reliable and/or as economical in the heavy launch market.

If SpaceX has any issues with either of the 2019 Falcon Heavy launches, it may have to end its Falcon Heavy program for a lack of customers. SpaceX gets a D+.

No. 3 – Success of the F9 Block 5 Version: C+

There are two primary missions of the Block 5 booster. First, it has to be proven to be safe for human flight. Second, the Block 5 booster is supposed to be the savior of space travel because of reusability and reliability. It is supposed to have a quick turnaround from launch to re-launch and it is touted as a booster that can easily be used ten times or more.

In 2018, SpaceX put up six Block 5 boosters in ten launches. One Block 5 booster has been used three times and two boosters have been used twice. Of the three Block 5 boosters that have been reused, the average turnaround time from launch to re-launch is 99 days.

SpaceX had to delay the December 2018 crewed mission back to June 2019. That means they failed to prove human rating in 2018.

The reusability and reliability of the Block 5 booster are also still in question. They have to be given credit for the ten successful launches, and the turnaround time is better than the Block 4 booster turnaround time (Average 177 days.)

Still, there is not enough information to determine if the Block 5 will achieve its primary goals. SpaceX gets a C+.

SpaceX gets an A+ in generating excitement and a polished public image that invites public support; however, the public image is not what counts in the commercial space business. SpaceX is practically giving away space on some of its rockets to stay in the public spotlight with its launches. The reality is that SpaceX maintained its ability to stay in business one more year, but that was not what it needed to do. Overall grade: C+

Nevada School District is Missing Children

17 Tuesday Apr 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Aging, All Rights Reserved, Conservatives, Economy, Education, Generational, Government, Higher Education, jobs, labor, Life, Nevada, parenting, Politicians, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, Reno, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States, Women

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charter schools, Nevada Schools, overcrowding, population, population growth, private schools, public charter schools, public schools, religious schools, taxes, Washoe County, Washoe County School District

Nevada’s Washoe County School District is missing children. About 6,500, and no one seems to have noticed. In the last decade (2008 to 2017,) the student population in Washoe County Schools has increased by 291 students. That is a half of one percent increase (0.05%) in ten years. The population of Washoe County has increased by almost eleven percent (10.7%) during the same time period. If the student population grew at the same rate the school district would have 6,500 more students than it does. Where are the missing children?

GRAPH 1.0 – WCSD Growth vs Washoe County Population (1,000’s of people)

Mystery of the Missing Students

The population of Washoe County increased by over 44,000 people from 2008 to 2017. One might expect that the Washoe County schools would have increased by more than 291 students. If the student population had kept pace with the Washoe County population growth, there should be over 70,000 pupils instead of just under 64,000.

Table 1.0 – WCSD student population growth compared to projected growth (Based on Washoe County population. NOTE: All figures are from WCSD reports.)

Some of the missing students can be found in private schools and public charter schools. Private schools in Washoe County enrolled 3,419 students in 2016-17; however, total enrollment in private schools in Nevada have not changed significantly during the last ten years. Public charter schools account for some of the missing students, but they only enrolled 2,753 students in Washoe County during the 2016-17 year.

Assuming that public charter schools absorbed 1,000 new students during the last ten years, and private schools absorbed 500, there is still approximately 5,000 missing students. It is possible that the growth in Washoe County was primarily adults without children. If that is the case, it may indicate that families aren’t moving to Nevada.

Flat Student Growth Saved Schools

There is a silver lining to the flat growth in Washoe County schools. Prior to 2008, the district was overcrowded and facing a crisis. The flat growth allowed time to ease some of the overcrowding and end some of the desperate measures to handle the situation.

However, Nevada may be facing a bigger crisis. If families are choosing not to move to the State it may be that Nevada’s poor school rankings have finally sealed its fate. No one wants to raise a family in a State that has underfunded schools.

Ethics Wins…Always

15 Sunday Apr 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in All Rights Reserved, Business, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Discrimination, Donald Trump, Ethics, Gender Issues, Honor, Lessons of Life, Life, Management Practices, Marketing, Nevada, Politicians, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, racism, Relationships, Religion, Reno, Respect, selling, The Tipping Point, United States, Women

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Car Dealerships, diabetic supply costs, Donald Trump, Ethics, unethical behavior, Unethical Business Practices

People who believe in a deity believe that there is a guiding force in our lives. Most people cling to the idea that, in the end, good will prevail. They want to know that whatever Judgment Day looks like, that ‘bad’ people will fail, and ‘good’ people will win. The need for a deity is secondary because what we really seek is the hope that ethical behavior will triumph over unethical behavior. And it does.

Ethical?: Price of Life for Diabetics

Ethics, Dual Harm Theory, and Time

When someone acts unethically it harms all parties. It, of course, harms the victim(s) of the unethical act, but it also harms the party responsible for the act. Neither of the parties may realize the harm caused at the time of the act. The victim(s) may take years to realize the offense committed. The party responsible may actually have a feeling of pleasure in committing the act. If an unethical act were obvious to the victim(s) and unpleasurable to the perpetrator, we wouldn’t have unethical acts.

But over time, the victim(s) will realize the harm and it will form a negative feeling or reaction that person or party. That negative feeling will become the foundation of the relationship between the two parties and will only be undone by multiple acts of contrition by the perpetrator.

As for the perpetrator, it may take much longer for their feeling of pleasure to spoil. They may even develop a lifestyle based on repeating the unethical behavior, but eventually, they will experience negative repercussions from their unethical acts.

Reaping What They Sow

The first impact of unethical behavior on a perpetrator is mistrust and anger from the victim(s.) This essentially defeats any opportunity for a positive relationship as the betrayal of the perpetrator will determine the relationship.

CASE STUDY: A service department representative at a car dealership gives an estimate of $725 for routine maintenance on a car purchased from them, new, three years prior. When questioned, he offers two other options for lesser maintenance at $600 and $450. The routine maintenance would cost less than $150 anywhere else.

The perpetrator may also become involved in reactions from the victim(s) and/or people who are sympathetic to the victim(s.) Revenge is only one of the possible reactions, as the perpetrator will have people they didn’t even know harbor ill-will toward them. There is no limit to the damage caused by unethical behavior.

Over time, the perpetrator is tainted with the unethical behavior, and all other actions are viewed in light of the previous behavior. Eventually, the perpetrator may realize the offensive nature of the behavior and face an internal conflict of self-loathing compensated with a delusional sense of ego.

Support of Enablers

Some perpetrators of unethical behavior are reinforced by an enabler or enablers. These people prop up the unethical behavior and act as cheerleaders for the perpetrator, while vicariously enjoying the acts of unethical behavior.

The problem for enablers is that a person who is routinely unethical will likely be unethical at some point with the enabler. This eventually leads to enablers to have a limited lifespan of supporting the unethical person.

CASE STUDY: Donald Trump has had 30 notable members of his staff resign or be fired in less than 30 months after being elected President. Most of these people were enthusiastic supporters of Trump. Some of them were let go with little or no notice. In at least one case, the victim learned through a Trump tweet that he was no longer in the position.

Ethical Behavior Builds, Not Destroys

The destruction of unethical behavior is punished over time; however, ethical behavior is rewarded over time. Ethical people tend to be trusted, build lasting relationships, enjoy life more, and have a positive outlook. There is a perverse immediate pleasure that can come from fooling another person into doing something that is not in their interest. That feeling is temporary. Lasting satisfaction comes from doing the correct thing, even when there are other options.

SpaceX’s Magical Block 5 Booster is a No Show

06 Friday Apr 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Ethics, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Government, Honor, Management Practices, Mars, NASA, Nevada, Public Image, Public Relations, Reno, Science, Space, SpaceX, Technology, The Tipping Point, United States, US History, US Space Program

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Block 5, booster, delays, F9, Falcon 9, first stage, promises, SpaceX

Today is 6 April 2018. That deafening roar that you DIDN’T hear yesterday was the SpaceX Block 5 Falcon 9 rocket. It didn’t launch yesterday. Nor did it launch in February…nor in December. SpaceX plans fall short of reality again. The trademark of Elon Musk’s and his companies are their ability to fail to live up to their claims.

SpaceX One Trick: Wasting Money to Reland Junk Boosters

Block 5 Falcon 9 – The Grand Promise

Block 5 is the made-up name for SpaceX’s final version of the Falcon 9. It is critical to their hope to be NASA’s go-to company for the manned space program. There is a catch. SpaceX has to fly the Block 5 booster seven times without making any upgrades or changes before NASA will put humans onboard.

There is another catch. SpaceX entire company has been built around one concept: economical space flight. Their method is reusability, and the centerpiece is the reusable booster. Musk has made grand claims that the SpaceX booster will be used ten times. In addition, some people have been suggesting that the booster will only need an inspection and will be able to be reflown in a matter of days.

To date, the maximum any booster has been reused is once (F9 Boosters B1021, B1023, B1025, B1029, B1031, B1032, B1035, B1036, B1038, B1039, B1041.) Of the eleven reflown boosters, six were relanded after the second flight, but then they were ‘retired’ or junked. The rest were ‘expended’ or destroyed. None of these boosters were Block 5 types.

The Snake Oil of Spaceflight

Any cost savings of the reusable booster have been eliminated by the waste of expending, relanding, and recovering junk boosters. The delays of the Block 5 are costing SpaceX money, and the idea that a booster can be landed, inspected, and reflown in days was the boast of NASA with the Space Shuttle. NASA found out the hard way. It is not possible without endangering lives.

The other aspect of this is that only SpaceX knows how much these launches really cost. They are not making the cost per launch available to the public. They could be charging much less than the actual cost to hide the fact that the reusable booster doesn’t actually save money.

Space Customers Are Watching

The first Block 5 flight is now scheduled for 24 April. The first SpaceX crewed flight was scheduled for December. It is improbable, and likely impossible that SpaceX will be able to have seven successful Block 5 flights in time to meet the December deadline.

This delay comes after a five-year delay in the launch of the Falcon Heavy. The first one was a spectacular success, but there are two more scheduled launches of the Falcon Heavy this year. Both have to be on time and successful, or SpaceX will face increasing doubts about its reliability.

Three Steps For Solving the Assault-Type Weapons Problem

16 Friday Mar 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, All Rights Reserved, Assault Weapons, Crime, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Gun control, Gun Extremists, Mass Shootings, Mental Health, Nevada, Politicians, Politics, Reno, Second Amendment, The Tipping Point, United States, US History, Violence in the Workplace

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assault rifles, assault weapons, Assault weapons ban, gun, Gun control, gun extremists, gun laws, gun lobby, gun rights, gun violence, guns, Second Amendment

Some people are saying that assault-type weapons genie is out of the box. Their belief is that the ban on assault-type rifles can never be reinstated. They fear that collection of assault weapons may involve violent confrontations with gun extremists. There is a way out of this mess caused by letting the assault weapons ban expire. It involves three steps.

Designed to Kill Without Aiming – Semi-automatic Mossberg-MMR

STEP ONE: Reinstate the ban on assault-type rifles

All future sale, trade, and/or gifting an assault-type rifle, including all rifles with an automatic and/or semiautomatic firing function, would be banned in the United States of America. These weapons would not be allowed to be imported, nor purchased outside the United States and brought into the country.

STEP TWO: Voluntary Surrender of Assault-type Rifles

Any current owner of an assault-type rifle would have the option of surrendering hu’s* weapon to local law enforcement. Those guns would need to be secured or destroyed.

STEP THREE: Conditions of Ownership of Assault-type Rifles

Condition One: Registration

Anyone with peaceful intent should be willing to comply with the registration of all assault-type weapons. Those that fail to register their automatic and semi-automatic weapons shall be considered to have a violent intent. They will face stiff fines and possibly prison. Registration will also consist of a background check, regardless of whether one was done when the owner purchased it.

Assault-type weapons cannot be sold to anyone else without approval from the local law enforcement agency. That agency will be required to perform a background check.

CONDITION TWO: Insurance

Anyone owning a weapon in question must obtain and maintain a one million dollar liability insurance policy. This is similar to the liability policy required to own a car. Failure to do so will require forfeiture of the gun and a significant fine and possibly prison.

CONDITION THREE: Compliance With the Second Amendment

Per the Second Amendment, an owner of an assault-type rifle must join a State National Guard and submit to regular training and duty as long as they own the weapon. Use of the weapon shall be regulated by that State’s National Guard, including the determination of mental and physical qualifications of use of such weapon.

(*’Hu’s’ is a pronoun meaning ‘his’ and/or ‘hers.’)

Leadership Madness: Time To Check Trump’s Urine Color

08 Thursday Mar 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, All Rights Reserved, Crisis Management, Economy, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Health, History, Lessons of Life, Management Practices, Mental Health, Politicians, Politics, Public Image, racism, Republic, Russian influence, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States, US History

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bipolar disorder, Congress, Donald Trump, GOP, Hitler, King George III, Leadership Madness, Mad King, Mussolini, porphyria, Republicans

King George III was an odd man in his later years. Sometimes talking without stopping for hours. He had a vengeful hate for the United States and hoped to war with our country incessantly until our spirit was destroyed. King George had episodes of odd behavior and his urine was allegedly blue. He was the focus of the American colonies desire to gain independence, and he was considered ‘mad.’ Maybe it’s time to check Donald Trump’s urine.

Enablers Surround Donald Trump

Destroyer of Nations: Diarrhea of a Leaders Thoughts

The final analysis of King George III’s reign is that he didn’t have the disease (porphyria) that turns urine purplish but rather had a bipolar disorder possibly caused by arsenic poison. His behavior towards the American colonies was a major factor in the cause of the American Revolution and his need to express himself verbally and in written words inflamed the situation.

A sentence containing 400 words and eight verbs was not unusual. George III, when ill, often repeated himself…

Historically, when a leader of a country becomes aggressive and vengeful, it often creates the devastation of that nation. Hitler, Mussolini, and even the Emperor of Japan took an aggressive stand that destroyed their countries. Aggressive and vengeful political leadership is a dangerous sign in for the well-being of its citizens.

Donald Trump is out of control, much like King George III. He is randomly lashing out and leaving his closest supporters desperately trying to explain his actions. We have never had a leader of the United States so out of balance in his words and deeds. He is a man who believes that he is unstoppable.

March 5, 2018

Leadership Madness: Raiding the Vault In the Chaos

The problem is that the Republicans in Congress are using this as an opportunity to take outrageous steps motivated by greed and ideology. They have no motivation to intercede and bring back stability. Our government was designed to have checks and balances but we are in a situation where that concept has become impotent.

Civility is a delicate balance of a conscious effort by a society. When that balance is destroyed there is no easy way to restore it. It is a crime for which everyone is punished.

GOP Memo is Last Straw

06 Tuesday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in Crime, Ethics, Government, History, Honor, Politicians, Politics, Public Image, Public Relations, racism, Republic, Respect, The Tipping Point, United States, US History, Voting

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115th Congress, 92nd Congress, Co-conspirators, collusion, Devin Nunes, Donald Trump, GOP, House Intelligence Committee, Putin, Republican, Republicans, Richard Nixon, Russia, Vladimir Putin

Last Friday the United State of America reached a point of no return when Republicans attempted to cast doubt on Trump campaign’s collusion with the Russians. Loyal Trumpster, Representative Devin Nunes, ignored all warnings and common sense in a desperate move to discredit the U.S. Intelligence community with a GOP memo claiming they were doing the bidding of the Democrats.

Trump and GOP Now Co-Conspirators

Any possible hope of Donald Trump and the Republican party maintaining their legitimacy as elected representatives ended with the release of a Republican-authored House Intelligence Committee memo that reconstructs facts to fit to create a manufactured story. Not only does the memo create a false version of the facts, but Trump was already promising a Republican that he was planning to release the memo as he was walking out after his of the State of the Union (or Uniom) speech.

Watergate Without a Democratic Congress to Stop Him

We are witnessing a more corrupt version of the Nixon administration without a Democratic majority in Congress to act on behalf of the people of our country. There is ample evidence to warrant a serious investigation into Donald Trump, his family, and his campaign regarding collusion with Russia to influence the 2016 election. The attempt to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the investigation by Trump and congressional Republicans is meant to reinforce the support of Trumpsters. It is an attempt to divide the country, not claim innocence.

Unfortunately, Trumpsters would likely not accept full video and audio recordings of collusion as evidence, so the release of the secret memo is simply a way for Trumpsters to maintain their belief that Trump is just a misunderstood genius. Trumpsters now have a way to reassure themselves that any evidence against Trump and his campaign is all part of a conspiracy by Democrats.

It is difficult to imagine a path toward normalcy in our country without some type of violent retaliation by some Trumpsters who will claim that Trump and the Republicans were illegitimately removed from office.

[COUNT TO 500: 495th Article in PAULx]

Stock Market Symptom of Great Depression, Not Cause

05 Monday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Business, Crisis Management, Economy, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Housing, Management Practices, Politicians, Politics, Real Estate, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States, US History

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1929, Black Monday, Black Thursday, Black Tuesday, feeding frenzy, investors, stock market, Stock Market Crash

Investors seem to be the last to know that the economy is a disaster. It is true that the downturn in the stock markets can trigger negative reactions in the economy, but those reactions are an acknowledgment of existing problems, such as low wages, overextended on loans, etc. In every case of an economic downturn, the stock market was a symptom of the larger economic failures and not the cause of the downturn.

Post-Great Depression Life

Investor Greed-Based Denial

Investors are notorious for lying to themselves. The primary motivation of an investor is to make more money and that motivation compromises his ability to make informed judgments. Most investors and the computer-based programs they use are focused on what the crowd is doing. Investors review and respond to company and industry issues, but even if the facts indicate a problem that might threaten the future of the stock value, most investors will follow the actions of the rest of the market over any contrary information.

Stock Market: It’s About Buying Stupid

Stock markets are ruled by buyers. If most investors want to buy a stock the value goes up. If most investors don’t want to buy the stock the value goes down. Individual stock values are driven by buyers.

However, when investors realize that major economic factors and/or significant world events will have a negative impact on all stock values, the markets collapse. A market crash occurs when sellers of stocks can’t find any buyers at any price. That is why some market collapses have been stalled by a major investor buying up stock to prop up the values of the larger market.

Economic Factors of the Great Depression

The major underlying economic causes of the Great Depression were low wages, weak consumer buying, high consumer debt, and depressed agricultural prices. Despite these warning signs investors continued to speculate on higher and higher stock values. They figuratively ran off the cliff unaware that there was no ground underneath them.

The Dow Jones Industrials 1929 Crash

The irony is that investors had multiple warnings before the big crash on 29 October 1929. In March and May of that year, the stock markets experienced mini-crashes that were warned of economic dysfunction; however, by June investors were back to rampant speculation. By September the stock markets began to stumble leading to Black Thursday (24 October) and Black Monday (28 October) and finally Black Tuesday (29 October.) After that, no one held any delusions of the state of the economy.

Market Crash Indicators: Rapid Advances, Wild Speculation

It is consistent that rapid growth and high exchange volumes in the stock markets are the best predictors of an impending crash. As the key indicators warn of economic downturn investors seem to move into a frenzied state of buying and selling. This behavior suggests that investors are aware of the coming downturn and are attempting to pass around stock as fast as possible to make money at a high value, but then selling off the stock before its value collapses.

2017 DJIA indicates a frenzied feeding event

2018 Looks Familiar

The economic situation of 2018 has many similarities to the 1929 pre-Depression environment. Wages have been stagnant for decades. Consumer debt is high and consumer savings is low. Multiple economic factors such as housing prices are out of touch with reality.

The scariest indicator predicting a downturn is the frenzied volume of shares being bought and sold. It indicates that investors are attempting to play ‘hot potato’ stocks in an attempt to harvest their value while the market is going up, but sell the stock quickly to avoid being caught before the stock market crashes. The current markets have no confidence in the future of our economy and that is more revealing than anything investors actually say in public.

[COUNT TO 500: 494th Article in PAULx]

Housing Prices Edge Closer to Catastrophe

04 Sunday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Business, Crisis Management, Customer Service, Economy, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Housing, Real Estate, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States

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2007-09 Recession, California, Colorado, Disaster, economy, home prices, Homes, housing, investment owner, Massachusetts, median home price, Nevada, owner-occupied, real estate, Recession, recession of 2018, United States

For the last twenty years, the United States has been building a tower of paper wealth. Over time the paper value of homes on the market has far outpaced inflation and wage growth. The current realty market has little connection to reality and we are on the brink of a housing catastrophe.

Price With No Reality Check

The real estate market is inherently flawed. Some claim that it is a perfect example of supply and demand, but that is not accurate. Real estate is the perfect example of a capitalistic market where common sense and ethics are overlooked because greed has blinded the people involved.

Home Prices Heading Toward a Cliff

Housing prices are not governed by a person’s (or family’s) ability to pay. They are governed by a real estate professional who has a financial interest in driving the price up, and an owner that wants as much money as possible. The buyer taking all the risk and if the housing prices don’t continue upward, they lose.

So why would anyone buy a house when prices are already too high?

The ‘Investment’ Loophole

Historically, the one house, one owner or owner-occupied concept kept a check on housing prices. If the buyer couldn’t pay the mortgage, he or she would lose their home. That was a big risk. Today’s investment buyer risks little if anything if they can’t pay a second home mortgage. She or he may lose the home if the investment fails but is a loss of potential future revenue and not a personal crisis.

Investment housing creates artificial shortages because one owner can own multiple homes, removing those from the overall inventory. The lower the supply, the higher the price. In 2016, the number of owner-occupied homes in the United States was 63.6%. California’s owner-occupied rate is 55.3% and at $524,000, its median home price is over double compared to $206,300 for the United States.

Median home price in four cities compared to U.S. average

Another 2007?

The current median price for a home in the United States is higher than it was during the housing bubble in 2007. Any shock to the economy would erase the paper home value and flood the market with another round of investment homes being dumped on the market.

It is a crisis that is easy to anticipate, but no one does. When the next recession hits the United States will once again suffer through a massive drop in housing prices as multi-house owners dump their investment homes and walk away.

[COUNT TO 500: 493rd Article in PAULx]

Why We Elect the Wrong People?: #2 We Don’t Understand the Purpose of a Republic

30 Tuesday Jan 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Aging, Business, Communication, Economy, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Health, Higher Education, History, Honor, Management Practices, Politicians, Politics, Public Image, Public Relations, racism, Religion, Republic, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States, Universities, US History, Voting, Women

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115th Congress, Business, candidates, Caucasian, democracy, Donald Trump, GOP, issues, Opinion, PAC's, platform, representatives, republic, Republican, uninformed, Voting, white male

Bad politicians are elected because the most voters don’t understand the purpose of a republic and because we don’t understand, we are manipulated by those who tell us what we want to hear. When anyone complains about Congress or the President we have to keep in mind that it is the voter that puts them in office and we are to blame.

Business Uses Republicans For Profit

Last weekend I published an article on why Big Business wants dumb politicians. Simply put, dumb politicians don’t interfere with unethical business practices and unethical business practices are more profitable than ethical business practices. Republicans have discovered that business will finance their campaigns if they are willing to restrict the function of government in a republic; however, Republicans are elected because they know how to manipulate a certain population in our country.

The Purpose of a Republic

Democracy is only effective if everyone is capable of researching all the information needed to make an intelligent decision on every issue facing a society. Even then, the ‘majority rules’ of a democracy is inherently unfair to the minority.

A republic accepts that not everyone will have enough information to make intelligent decisions on issues confronting a country so representatives are elected to research the issues and make the decisions that benefit the greatest number of people. The catch is that the representatives have to be capable of understanding complex issues and have to be honorable in the discharge of the duties of her or his office.

Opinions Are Irrelevant

What most voters don’t understand is that their ‘opinion is irrelevant in a republic,… and it should be. Opinions are based on the knowledge of the person. If the person is not qualified, not educated, and/or not experienced enough to understand the issue, his or her opinion is defective. When a ‘person on the street’ is interviewed, they are the least likely to have a valid opinion.

GOP Uses the White Male Voter

Republicans use uneducated and/or biased voter opinion to their benefit. They target issues that are based on misinformed or uneducated opinion that the voter is passionate about and elevate those issues in the political arena. Often these issues are based on the personal bias of the voter. Primarily, Republicans target opinions of the uneducated white male and exploit them by saying what the white male wants to hear to gain his support and trust.

The GOP reinforces the white male voter’s belief that he is correct. Republicans blame the government and liberals as the cause of the issue and convince white men that they will fix the problem if elected. Once they have gained the trust of the voter, it is relatively easy to plant other ‘issues’ in his mind. The twisted logic of giving money to the rich will create more jobs is a prime example of how Republicans plant an idea that completely defies common sense, and yet, Republican voters accept it as fact.

The Cure

If our country hopes to elect better politicians, then we have to choose those who are highly intelligent and honorable. We also must stop expecting candidates to take positions on issues before they are elected. Candidates with strong positions are often attempting to say what people want to hear. If our elected officials are intelligent and honorable, they will make good choices.

We also have to understand that our opinion is irrelevant unless we have expertise regarding the issue. Everyone has an opinion, but the only ones that count are the one with knowledge of the issue.

ICE Solidifies Itself As Trump’s SS Police

12 Friday Jan 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Crime, Ethics, Generational, Government, History, Honor, Management Practices, Politics, racism, Respect, The Tipping Point, US History

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criminals, Donald Trump, Hitler, ICE, ICE agents, Illegal Immigrants, immigrants, Immigration, immigration laws, Justice Department, minor offenses, Nazi, Operation Cross Check, Operation Mega, Russia, SS agents, SS police, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, visitors

The Trump Vision for ICE

[UPDATED: 19 July 2020 – original story from 12 January 2018]

Early in Trump’s administration, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) became the President’s ruthless thugs in his racist agenda. Moving away from intelligent, common sense enforcement of immigration policies, ICE began acting as Trump’s SS police to target people who have been contributing to the country’s economy and have not been involved in any significant criminal activity.

ICE has now become a white terrorist organization seeking to scare and intimidate immigrants whether they are documented or not.

ICE As Trump’s SS Police

In the past year ICE agents have:

10 January 2018 – ICE agents made an unannounced raid of almost 100 7-Eleven stores across the nation as part of a terrorism campaign to build fear among immigrants. In an announcement following the raids, Deputy Director Thomas D. Homan declared that his agency would be targeting small businesses and commercial operations that hire undocumented workers. He stated that these businesses are attempting to gain a competitive edge, but completely ignored the fact that small businesses and agricultural operations can’t find reliable U.S. citizens willing to work the types of jobs they have available.

17-21 September – ICE had planned on launching ‘Operation Mega,’ targeting 8,400 immigrants nationwide in order to meet a deportation goal by 30 September. U.S. Immigration Service canceled the operation after NBC News reported the plan earlier in September. ICE stated that the cancellation was because of the diaster recovery efforts after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

23-26 July 2017 – ICE agents arrested 650 immigrants, of which, only twenty percent had any criminal charge or conviction. The other 520 were noncriminal arrests.

1 May 2017 – ICE had arrested 21,000 immigrants and began masking the information of the criminal records of the detainees from public disclosure by combining minor offenses and a lack of documentation as a criminal offense. Prior to this, the Justice Department was demanding each ICE regional office report the three worst records of the detainees to be used as a propaganda campaign to justify their actions. Several offices reportedly could not provide the information sought by the Trump administration.

February 2017 – Operation Cross Check picked up 675 immigrants. Half had no other criminal convictions or only traffic offenses. Less than ten percent had drug-related convictions and less than 15% had convictions for assault. Only two had homicide convictions. (It would be interesting to compare these records to the criminal records of Congress members; however, as soon as the 115th Congress convened in January 2017, they passed a measure that protects them from revealing any personal information to any criminal investigation.)

June/July 2020 – In early June, unidentified armed officers in riot gear appeared at protests in Washington D.C. near the Capitol. Those were an assorted mix of armed agents and police from multiple agencies. In July, unidentified ICE agents were deployed in Portland, unannounced, in rented white vans and accused of kidnapping protesters off the streets.

ICE Above the Law…Just Like the SS Police

ICE agents no longer operate under the scrutiny of the citizens of the United States. ICE is intentionally hiding data regarding the offenses of detainees so that no one can question their actions. They are also using terrorism tactics to brazenly question and arrest people of color without regard to sufficient cause, and they are targeting cities and states that offer sanctuaries for immigrants.

These are the exact same tactics used by Hitler’s SS police force to intimidate the Jews in Nazi Germany. The SS officers were given broad authority with little or no regard for civil rights or common sense. This is the same tactic being used by Trump’s ICE force, and they are planning to double the size of the ICE force, even though they are not finding immigrants to justify their operations now.

12 Days in 1968

06 Saturday Jan 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in 1968, Aging, Arts, Crime, Crisis Management, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Health, Higher Education, History, Honor, Panama, Photography, Politics, Pride, Print Media, Public Image, Public Relations, racism, Relationships, Religion, Respect, Science, Space, Technology, The Tipping Point, Traditional Media, Universities, US History, Women

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1968, Apollo 7, Apollo 8, Apollo missions, assassination, Black Panthers, Catholic Church, Civil Rights, Elections, Feminism, Florida Education Association, George Wallace, Humanae vitae, John F. Kennedy, Jr., Lyndon B. Johnson, Martin Luther King, Moon, Moon landing, North Korea, police, Pope Paul VI, President Richard Nixon, Protests, Richard M. Nixon, Riots, Robert Kennedy, sit-ins, teacher's strike, USS Pueblo, Vietnam War, Women's Rights

May 1968 – Student injured in France in clash with police

1968. Fifty years ago our country was in chaos. Only five years had passed since President John F. Kennedy had been assassinated. The man who became President, Lyndon B. Johnson, had accomplished amazing milestones in civil rights, protections for the elderly (Medicare and Medicaid) and had expanded programs in public broadcasting and the arts, but the country was torn apart by the war in Vietnam, and he had increased the number of U.S. troops in the war to over half a million.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was still recovering from the fire in January of the previous year that killed three astronauts as they sat helplessly in the command module on the launch pad, and the Apollo program had yet to launch a manned mission with only two years left to honor President Kennedy’s goal.

At the start of the year, everything in the world seemed to be collapsing. The year would test our society’s threshold of endurance. These are twelve days that defined 1968. (Source: Wikipedia – 1968)

Captured crew of the USS Pueblo giving the finger to North Korea

January 23
- North Korea seized the USS Pueblo, creating an international incident that remained in the news for most of 1968. North Korea claimed the ship was spying on their country and violated its territorial waters. Its mission was to observe and gather intelligence and at the time of capture, the crew attempted to destroy classified information on the Pueblo, but only succeeded in destroying a small amount of the documents and equipment. One crewmember was killed by North Korean fire in the attempt to capture the boat. The crew was tortured and starved during the eleven months of imprisonment. They were released just before Christmas 1968. The USS Pueblo is still held in North Korea and is still a commissioned ship of the United States Navy.
February 13
- Civil rights disturbances occur at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. This would be one of many protests, sit-ins, and riots, in the United States, England, France, Germany, and other countries over civil rights, the Vietnam war, and other social issues. Many of those involved in the year of civil disobedience would be injured or killed in clashes with law enforcement.
- The Florida Education Association (FEA) initiates a mass resignation of teachers to protest state funding of education. This is, in effect, the first statewide teachers’ strike in the United States.
- NET televises the very first episode of Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood.
March 16
- Vietnam War – My Lai Massacre: American troops kill scores of civilians. The story will first become public in November 1969 and will help undermine public support for the U.S. efforts in Vietnam.
- President Lyndon B. Johnson, the incumbent, narrowly won the first Democratic primary to a minor candidate on March 11, and U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy entered the race for the Democratic Party presidential nomination. President Johnson would end his campaign two weeks after Kennedy makes his announcement.
April 4
- Martin Luther King Jr. is assassinated at the Lorraine Motel in Memphis, Tennessee. Riots erupt in major American cities, lasting for several days afterward.
- A shootout between Black Panthers and Oakland police results in several arrests and deaths, including 16-year-old Panther Bobby Hutton.
- A double explosion in downtown Richmond, Indiana kills 41 and injures 150.
May 17
- The Catonsville Nine enter the Selective Service offices in Catonsville, Maryland, take dozens of selective service draft records, and burn them with napalm as a protest against the Vietnam War.
June 5
- U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy is shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles. Sirhan Sirhan is arrested. Kennedy dies from his injuries the next day.

Pope Paul VI: The man who brought the Church into couple’s beds

July 25
- Pope Paul VI publishes the encyclical entitled Humanae vitae, on birth control. This voided a church commissioned study (Pontifical Commission on Birth Control) that determined birth control to NOT be inherently evil, and that couples should decide for themselves about the use of birth control. The Pope’s decision inserted the church into a conflict that continues to this day.
August 20
- The Prague Spring of political liberalization ends, as 750,000 Warsaw Pact troops, 6,500 tanks, and 800 planes invade Czechoslovakia. It is dated as the biggest operation in Europe since WWII ended.
September 6
- 150 women (members of New York Radical Women) arrive in Atlantic City, NJ to protest against the Miss America Pageant, as exploitative of women. Led by activist and author Robin Morgan, it is one of the first large demonstrations of Second Wave Feminism as Women’s Liberation begins to gather much media attention.
October 11
- Apollo program: NASA launches Apollo 7, the first manned Apollo mission (Wally Schirra, Donn Eisele, Walter Cunningham). Mission goals include the first live television broadcast from orbit and testing the lunar module docking maneuver. The United States is back in space for the first time since the Apollo 1 disaster.
- In Panama, a military coup d’état, led by Col. Boris Martinez and Col. Omar Torrijos, overthrows the democratically elected (but highly controversial) government of President Arnulfo Arias. Within a year, Torrijos ousts Martinez and takes charge as de facto Head of Government in Panama.
November 5
- U.S. presidential election, 1968: Republican challenger Richard Nixon defeats the Democratic candidate, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and American Independent Party candidate George C. Wallace. President Nixon would throw the country into a Constitutional crisis six years later and be forced to resign from office.
View of Earth from Apollo 8 as it orbited the Moon
December 24
- Apollo program: U.S. spacecraft Apollo 8 enters orbit around the Moon. Astronauts Frank Borman, Jim Lovell and William A. Anders become the first humans to see the far side of the Moon and planet Earth as a whole. Anders photographs Earthrise.

1929 is Coming

29 Friday Dec 2017

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Aging, Business, Crisis Management, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Health, History, Management Practices, Politics, racism, Religion, Respect, Taxes, The Tipping Point, US History, Women

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1929, Fascism, Fascist, Germany, Italy, Jews, Middle East, Nazi Party, Palestinians, Russia, Stock Market Crash, Tea Pot Dome scandal, the Great Depression, Third Rome

116 Palestinians and 133 Jews were killed in riots over control of the Western Wall. The Jews occupied and claimed the Western Wall in Jerusalem. The Palestinians came in and attacked the Jews in an attempt to remove them.

Italy was taken over by a political party that sought to create a Third Rome through ‘revolutionary nationalism’ based on the principles of order, discipline, hierarchy and dominated by the Caucasian race. The government opposed liberalism and sought to establish a corporatist system where the major corporations helped determine the national economic policy.

Germany began to have high unemployment and the government was thrown into chaos, that led to the conservative and nationalistic Nazi party to take control.

Russia reversed the post-revolutionary idea of free-market farming and began seizing private farms and moved workers to corporate farms.

The United States Secretary of the Interior was convicted of selling prime oil fields to petroleum companies at low prices in exchange for bribes.

Prior to the Great Depression that began in 1929, conservatives and nationalists were taking control of the governments of multiple countries around the world and instituting policies of racism, conflict, corruption, and greed. The result was a collapse of the world economy and set the stage for World War II.

We seem to be repeating the same cycle in 2017.

This is NOT an Excuse: Why Older White Men Sexually Harass Women

22 Wednesday Nov 2017

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Business, Communication, Crime, Crisis Management, Employee Retention, Ethics, Generational, History, Honor, Human Resources, Lessons of Life, Management Practices, parenting, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, Relationships, Respect, The Tipping Point, Women

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children, Donald Trump, Education, management by intimidation, men, power, Ray Moore, sex, sex ed, sexual harassment, sexual relationships, wealth, Weinstein, Women

I need to be clear. Sexual harassment is and always has been wrong.

However, as an older white man, I can say that I am not surprised by the revelations coming out about women who have been sexually harassed by powerful older white men, I have to admit that I have been guilty of the same attitudes and behaviors.

Nothing that I have to say should be construed as an excuse for the behavior. No one should read this and feel any sympathy for men who have engaged in sexual harassment. This is simply an explanation of why I am not surprised by the recent revelations, and why I think almost all men of my age or older have a propensity to sexually harass women.

“Nothing that I have to say should be construed as an excuse for the behavior. No one should read this and feel any sympathy for men who have engaged in sexual harassment.”

I was born in 1957. My parents that raised me were married in 1939. My Dad was twenty years old, and my mother was fifteen…on the day she married. That was not typical; however, older men marrying younger women, even girls, was not uncommon, and during my childhood years, almost every Mom was a housewife.

As a child of the 1960’s, the idea that the man was dominant over a woman was not even questioned. Women were created to please men. The mindset was, women should not be overtly sexual and modest; therefore, it was the man’s place to initiate sexual actions. There was no formal instruction about initiating sexual intention with women, it was just expected that boys would learn as they go.

It was blatantly obvious to me, and probably most men my age, that power and wealth made men sexually attractive, and that women craved men who boldly took the initiative, so they didn’t have to pretend that they didn’t want sex. One way to win over a woman was to be in a position of power, and create a situation where the woman could submit to them.

“…that power and wealth made men sexually attractive, and that women craved men who boldly took the initiative, so they didn’t have to pretend that they didn’t want sex.”

The problem was, it worked. In hindsight, it didn’t work because the myth of women secretly wanting sex was true, it worked because the intimidation of a powerful man, and because most fell into the belief that it was a societal norm. Until I was in my late 20’s, the concept of sexual harassment was not even recognized as a problem in the workplace. A man marrying a subordinate was commonplace.

During my adult years, the development of workplace training began to take hold, and one of the primary topics became sexual harassment training. I, and most other men, were told that we had to be careful how we handled ourselves in the workplace, but that seemed to be focused on the workers, not so much on the executives.

When an issue of sexual harassment did come up with someone in management, companies hushed it up “to protect the woman,” and often the woman was given some type of compensation and moved out of the situation. In the business world, the human resources department enabled men to sexual harass women by treating it as an embarrassment for the company that needed to be dealt with internally, without law enforcement involvement.

There is no excuse for my behavior, nor the behavior of white men my age. In part, the problem is born of myths that are created in the absence of discussion and awareness of sex. Young boys will believe what other young boys will tell them when reliable information isn’t available.

We have to stop pretending that sex is only for married adults, and prior to marriage sex isn’t supposed to happen. Abstinence is an abomination to human interaction, and people who promote that idea don’t realize the damage they are doing to our society. Sex is not taboo or should it be embarrassing to discuss. It is a natural function of life.

We also have to stop letting companies deal with sexual harassment issues. Profit, public relations, and efficient operation of the business have no place in how a workplace sexual harassment issue is resolved.

“Profit, public relations, and efficient operation of the business have no place in how a workplace sexual harassment issue is resolved.”

Finally, I apologize to any woman who feels I have offended and/or been sexually inappropriate with. There is no excuse.

Pokémon GO Partners With Starbucks

08 Thursday Dec 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Branding, Business, Communication, Customer Relations, Customer Service, exercise, Green, Information Technology, Internet, Public Image, Public Relations, Relationships, Social Interactive Media (SIM), Social Media Relations, Technology, The Tipping Point

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Apps, Games, Gyms, phone apps, Pokémon, PokéStops, Pokemon GO, smartphones, Starbucks

It’s official!

It’s no longer rumor. Pokémon GO is now a partner with Starbucks, and it is the perfect match.

At shortly after noon today (8 December 2016,) Mountain Standard Time, Niantic (the developer/partner of the Pokémon GO app for The Pokémon Company International aka: TPCi) turned on over 7,500 new PokéStops and Pokémon Gyms at Starbucks locations around the United States. Starbucks also began serving Pokémon GO frappuccinos to complete the partnership.

During its July launch, Pokémon GO placed PokéStops and Gym in retail centers and malls, creating a windfall of potential customers; however, businesses were not active partners with Pokémon (TCPi.) This week’s launch of business partnerships with Starbucks and Sprint (launched yesterday) signals a new era in cross-pollination of business interests with increased customer traffic created by the Pokémon GO game.

Rumors suggest that Pokémon GO is not finished in December surprises. The most anticipated update is the addition of the second generation of Pokémon GO characters. Trainers (players) are running out of new characters to capture, so a holiday event that includes expansion of the character field would be vital to keeping trainer interest.

Stay tuned!

Sanders is Still DOA: Math Trumps Rhetoric

04 Wednesday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Ethics, Generational, Government, Honor, Politics, The Tipping Point, Women

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2016, Bernie Sanders, convention, delegates, Democrat, Democrats, Election, Hillary Clinton, Philadelphia, President, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Presidential race, superdelegates

Bernie Sanders Math: If I lose, I should still win!

Bernie Sanders won Indiana. Well, sort of.

If by winning, you mean he received 34,466 more votes, then yes, he won.

However, exit polls showed him pulling a surprise 12% win, which would have helped his famous, and endless claim of ‘momentum,’ but he only came in with less than half of that percentage.

But the real contest is who wins the most delegates. Before Indiana Sanders was 327 delegates behind, and his Indiana ‘win’ nets him six more. Six more delegates is not even close to what he needed. Now he is has a deficit of 321 delegates, and between now and the June 7th California primary there are only 262 delegates available. Even if Sanders won one hundred percent of every primary and caucus between now and June 7th, he would still be behind Hillary Clinton in delegates.

California is the end of the road for Sanders. He can refuse to concede, but it won’t matter. There are 548 delegates available in the California primary. Clinton needs 181 of those delegates, along with the superdelegates who’ve pledged their vote to her, and she has the nomination.

Sanders needed to have a stunning win in Indiana to keep up the appearances of a contender, and he didn’t. His campaign has even given up the idea that he has to win the most pledged delegates, and is now focusing on converting the superdelegates to vote for him even if he can’t win the majority of regular delegates. That’s just a fantasy.

Hillary Clinton: In her 3rd decade of fighting for a government by the people

Hillary Clinton: Coasting to the nomination

The superdelegates are loyal Democrats. That’s how they earned the honor of being a superdelegate. Sanders is not a Democrat. He is an Independent who refused to join the Democratic party until he decided to run for President. His plan to ‘convert’ the superdelegates would require that some of the most loyal Democrats abandon the real Democrat who has won the most pledged delegates, to give the nomination to a candidate who is a Democrat in name only. It is not going to happen.

Under the rosiest scenario, Sanders will 129 delegates between now and June 7th. That would only give 66 more delegates to Clinton, but she would then only need 115 more delegates to win the nomination. Currently she is ahead of Sanders in California by ten points, but lets assume that Sanders wins by ten points. He would win 329 delegates, and Clinton 219.

Clinton will clinch the nomination in California by over one hundred delegates, even if Sanders wins every primary/caucus up to, and including California. Not only does Clinton win, but she also will still have over one hundred more pledged delegates than Sanders.

Sanders is claiming the system is rigged. He’s correct. It’s rigged to nominate the person who wins the most delegates, and that is Hillary Clinton.

The only question left is who she will face in the general election. Will it be the Donald Trump, or will there be an eleventh hour switch to Paul Ryan?

5 Reasons Why Sanders Should Be the Democratic VP Nominee

27 Wednesday Apr 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Branding, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Passionate People, Politics, Taxes, The Tipping Point, US History, Women

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2016, Bernie Sanders, Congress, Conservatives, Democrats, Dems, GOP, Hillary Clinton, House of Representatives, President, Presidential race, Republican, Republicans, Senate, vice president, White House

Bernie Sanders is passionate, if he is anything

Bernie Sanders as Vice President. It’s not going to happen. It seems like the logical move, but there are too many forces working against it. Hillary Clinton will not want an adversary as Vice President. Sanders won’t want to play second fiddle. Contributors for the Clinton campaign will fear Sanders influence in the White House. The list goes on.

However, Sanders as Vice President is exactly what our nation needs:

ONE: He will energize the ticket and bring in supporters who might not vote
Sanders will bring in the youth vote, who very well may walk away if he’s not on the ticket. A Clinton/Sanders ticket will end any chance for a Republican win. The best they can hope for is to try to keep the House of Representatives, which is unlikely with Trump at the top of their ticket.

Hillary Clinton needs Sanders as her liberal standard-bearer

TWO: He could be tasked with helping Democrats take back the House and Senate
There is no doubt that for Sanders to see anything on his agenda achieved, the Democrats have to control government. He would be the perfect catalyst to make that happen.

THREE: As Vice President, Sanders can push a liberal agenda
Sanders is relentless on changing the conservative status quo. Even before he would be sworn into office, he will put conservatives on the defensive, instead of taking the offensive as they did when Barack Obama was elected in 2008.

FOUR: Sanders on the ticket creates a big win
Red States, like Arizona, might turn to voting Blue if Sanders is on the ticket. Certainly, Clinton will beat Trump, but the win has to be so large that the unintelligent, immature, and racist Trump supporters must be humiliated. Sanders can make that happen.

FIVE: Clinton will do better with a team of rivals
A spirited debate within the administration will lead to better decisions. Liberals value intelligence, logic, and empathy, and that requires a thorough examination of all viewpoints. Sanders would be a key element in challenging the paradigms of politics, economics, and social values.

Moffat County, Colorado: Story of Two Families (Part III-Another Radiator Springs)

12 Friday Feb 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Business, College, Education, Generational, Government, History, Lessons of Life, The Tipping Point, Travel, US History

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Barrick, Colorado, Colorado Street, Craig, Family, Frances Barrick, genealogy, Kiser, Maybell, Mike Kiser, Vernon Kiser

1940’s-Kiser/Barrick Merger
By 1939, both the Barrick and Kiser family had established themselves in Moffat County. The original two families had lived in northwestern Colorado for over two decades and the children born there were now old enough to start their own families. Vernon, the oldest son of the Kiser family and Frances, the eldest daughter of the Barrick family married on October 29, 1939. Both were first generation natives of Moffat County.

Vernon and Frances Kiser

To support themselves, Vernon took jobs wherever he could in the 1940’s. He and Frances moved several times around northwestern Colorado to be where the work took them. World War II had little impact on Vernon and Frances as he had broken his arm as a child and it failed to heal properly.

His disqualification to join the military was a blessing as he became a father in 1945. Kenneth Clyde was born on July 10, and by that time Vernon had settled into a career as a heavy equipment operator. In 1949, Vernon began working for Henderson Construction where he would remain for the next 22 years.

However, World War II did have an impact on other members of the Kiser and Barrick family. Vernon’s brothers, Loren and Hubert Kiser and, the brother of Frances, George Jr. and two of her brother-in-laws, Lewis Hurlburt and Ed Annon served in the military during the war. All survived the war, but they, and their families, all relocated outside of Moffat County after they returned.

1950-70 The Hahn’s Peak Years
Vernon’s work with Henderson Construction was largely with a small mining company. One of their mining claims was Hahn’s Peak in nearby Routt County. The idea was that because gold had been found in a radius around the extinct volcano, perhaps there were veins of gold in the mountain. For many years Vernon was employed to build and maintain roads on Hahn’s Peak for the mining operations on the mountain. Almost all of the roads on Hahn’s Peak were carved out by Vernon.

Hahn’s Peak – Roads by Vernon Kiser

Vernon and Frances had three more boys during his tenure with Henderson Construction. Michael Warner was born in 1950, Roy Dean was born in 1953, and Paul Alan was born in 1957.

Because Hahn’s Peak was about an hour and a half from Craig, Vernon lived in a trailer house at the base of the Hahn’s Peak during the week. During the summer when school was out the family would join their Dad and live at the camp for the summer. Once a week Frances and the boys would come into town to wash clothes, shop, and maintain the yard at the house, then head back to Hahn’s Peak.

1960-80 677 Colorado Street
Much of the Barrick family had moved out of Moffat County during the 1940’s and 50’s; however, the Vernon and Frances built a home at 677 Colorado Street in Craig, and From 1958 until 1978, that house was the anchor of the Kiser family. All their boys attended school in Craig, played sports, and graduated from Moffat County High School while living in that house.

The Kiser Family in 1957 at the new house, 677 Colorado Street

Henderson Construction closed it’s doors in 1972, and eventually Vernon took a job at the Moffat County Road Department where he moved up to the Assistant Road Supervisor. By 1976, all of their boys had graduated and left Craig, so Vernon and Frances decided to move to Great Divide and manage one of the county’s remote road maintenance stations.

Of their four boys, Mike Kiser was the only one who returned to northwest Colorado to stay. He was a helicopter mechanic for the Army and was stationed in Germany. After his tour of duty he worked a couple of years as a mechanic for the City of Sandy, Utah. Mike married a woman he met in Utah and they moved back to Craig. In 1975, they had a daughter, Carey.

In Craig, he took a job with the Moffat County Road Department and later became a member of Craig’s volunteer fire department. Unfortunately, while Mike was in his 30’s he was stricken with a hereditary autoimmune disorder that put him in the hospital for weeks at a time and he had to stop working. Eventually, Mike moved out to Maybell where he lived for the rest of his life.

1980’s to 2015-End of an Era
Craig’s story is similar to the story of Radiator Springs in Disney’s fictional town in the animated movie Lightning McQueen, Craig is the town that saw its glory days when U.S. Highway 40 was the best route between Denver and Salt Lake City. Once Interstates 70 and 80 were built, Craig became more isolated even though the two-lane highway is shortest route between the two major cities.

For a person graduating from Moffat County High School, Craig’s career opportunities are limited and the community can’t absorb 100 new job seekers every June. A diploma for many graduates is an order to work for the family business, a signal to scramble to find a local job, or a ticket to pack and leave northwestern Colorado.

Since the Barrick family emigrated to Moffat County in 1913, at least 24 Kiser/Barrick family members lived in northwestern Colorado. By 1990 there were only five members living in the county. The rest left the area for military service, college, better jobs, or just to discover other places.

The family members still living in Moffat County were Vernon and Frances Kiser, Mike Kiser, Virginia Barrick Hurlburt (sister of Frances,) and George Dean Jr. (brother of Frances.) Vernon had retired from the Road Department and he and Frances purchased a small ranch on the Yampa River west of Maybell. Mike Kiser and Frances’ sister, Virginia Hurlbert, also moved out to Maybell. The five survivors of the Kiser/Barrick family were all natives of Moffat County.

For several years Vernon and Frances enjoyed the return to life on a ranch until Vernon began having health problems. Vernon, the first child of the Kiser/Barrick clan to be born in Moffat County, died at Craig Memorial Hospital in 1996. He was 77. Virginia died in Maybell in 2004. She was 76. George Dean Jr. died in Craig two years later. He was 84. Frances, the last of the first generation of homesteader’s children died at her home in Maybell in 2008. She was also 84.

Michael Warner Kiser 1950-2015

After his mother’s death, Mike Kiser remained at the home west of Maybell. He had been married twice, but he had been single for most of the last half of his life. Although he lived with chronic pain, he had been feeling healthier lately. Local people had seen him taking long walks near his home on Highway 318. He had been out on Thursday, November 19, 2015, but no one had seen him since. His brother, Roy, tried to call him on the weekend and when he couldn’t get ahold of Mike he asked the Moffat County Sheriff’s Department to check up on him. They found him dead of a heart attack in his home.

The Kiser/Barrick family line in Moffat County

Mike’s passing ended a century of the Kiser/Barrick family in Moffat County. The Kisers and the Barricks that were born and raised in northwestern Colorado weren’t really noteworthy. None of them ran for political office, none of them were high-profile citizens, and rarely did you see their names in the local papers. They attended the local schools, worked at local jobs, were involved in sports in high school, and they quietly raised families.

This July the Kiser and Barrick families will come together at Hahn’s Peak to say goodbye to Mike, and say goodbye to our home in northwestern Colorado.

ALSO: Part I – Pre-Homesteading

ALSO: Part II – Two Family’s Destiny Unfolds

The Joy of No

01 Tuesday Dec 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Business, Club Leadership, College, Communication, Consulting, Crisis Management, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Education, Employee Retention, Ethics, Generational, Government, Higher Education, Honor, Human Resources, Lessons of Life, Management Practices, Membership Recruitment, Membership Retention, Passionate People, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, Re-Imagine!, Relationships, Respect, Rotary, Social Interactive Media (SIM), Social Media Relations, The Tipping Point, Tom Peters, Universities

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bosses, committees, dictators, Human Interaction, meetings, No, organizations, Social Interaction, workplace

No is a perfectly acceptable answer….providing,

The idea or suggestion lacked thought or had no basis in fact. (e.g.; Would Donald Trump be a good President?)
The idea or suggestion has obvious flaws. (e.g.; Should we let a gun be in a room with a bunch of 2nd grade children?)
Is a matter of personal opinion or seeks personal approval. (e.g.; Would you go out with me?)

But when an idea or suggestion doesn’t fall under any of these categories, the “no” answer becomes a potential weapon of personal destruction for the person saying it, and a beautiful opportunity for the person on the receiving end.

Being the youngest of four boys, my brothers and parents became accustomed to telling me ‘no.’ I was constantly asking questions and making suggestions, and the ‘yes’ answer was likely to encourage me. In those situations where I actually had a good idea, it was enough that as the youngest member of the family, a ‘no’ answer was valid.

As an adult, I never had any expectations that my ideas and suggestions would be better received, so hearing ‘no’ was an irritation, but I accepted it as part of life.

However, I as grew older I noticed that some people seemed to enjoy telling other people ‘no.’ Often these people were in leadership positions and their tactic was to dominate and/or intimidate others. In some cases people would act as a dictator within the organization, silencing the ideas and opinions of others with a type of ‘no’ answer that implied dire consequences if the person didn’t drop the subject, or the idea was treated so lightly as if the person was unintelligent for making the suggestion. For years I thought that part of being a good manager was to have the privilege and responsibility to tell others, “NO!”

Then several years ago I joined a service club and became very involved in the organization. I served on several Boards and committees. I discovered that I could manipulate some people because I always knew their response to whatever I suggested would be, ‘no.’

It was then I realized that when someone says ‘no,’ it is a gift. The “No-ee” has done all they are required by making the suggestion or asking the question. The “No-er” has put their reputation and respectability on the line. The ‘no’ answer gives them all the responsibility, and, as a situation plays out, their failure to consider someone else’s idea or suggestion may be the fatal decision that brings them down.

I still find enjoyment of sometimes asking a perfectly legitimate question of someone I know will give me a ‘no’ answer. It is even more interesting to do this when I have more information about the issue or situation than they do and they can’t help but give me an answer that will eventually haunt them.

Still, I have learned that organizations and relationships with ‘no’ people are typically doomed. There’s a time to experience the joy of ‘no,’ and then there are times it’s best to walk away and shake the dust off your sandals.

GOP Presidential Race is Over

27 Sunday Sep 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Ethics, Government, Health, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Religion, Respect, The Tipping Point, US History, Women

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2016, America, conservative, Conservatives, Elections, GOP, House of Representatives, House Speaker, John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Pope, President, Republicans, resignation, right-wing extremists, Tea Party, United States of America

Marco Rubio basking in the glow of Boehner’s resignation

House Speaker John Boehner’s resignation last week has brought reality to the Republican party. The smallest minority in Congress is the right-wing extremists and they have been the tail wagging the GOP dog. House Speaker Boehner has been attempting to keep up appearances that common sense conservatives and right-wing extremists all want the same thing, but they don’t. Boehner’s resignation was the showdown between conservatives who believe in the founding principles of our country and conservatives who want to dismantle our country.

Senator and Republican Presidential candidate, Marco Rubio announced Speaker Boehner’s resignation to the cheers of a political group that desires to overthrow our 240 year-old government and replace our Constitution with Taliban-like laws based on mythology. Rubio then went on to say that it is time to “turn the page” on a government that sees all people as equal and install a government that dictates who people can love, what women can choose, and how people can worship.

House Speaker John Boehner takes the high road

Senator Rubio’s victory speech is premature. Boehner’s resignation exposes the Republican party’s festering wound and the hysteria of the mob mentality of right-wing extremists. The Republicans have two choices. They can either capitulate to the right-wing extremists and select a Presidential candidate that will not be electable, or they can finally stand up to those people who seek to overthrow our government and find a moderate conservative that might draw some support from left leaning voters.

In either case, it is unlikely that any Republican candidate can rid themselves of the poisonous environment created by extremists in their party. The right-wing extremists have devolved into a group that has lied and deceived so much that their social media posts are only propaganda for incestuous consumption of other extremists.

However, the right-wing extremists are not an unstoppable force. Their lies and deceit may entertain them, but disgust intelligent, loyal citizens. Right-wing extremists are parading stupidity as if it is something to be proud of in a country of highly intelligent people. The only question is whether common sense conservatives will stay on the right-wing band wagon until it goes off the cliff.

The Beginning of the End For Starbucks?

11 Wednesday Feb 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Branding, Business, Communication, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Ethics, Public Image, Public Relations, Social Media Relations, The Tipping Point

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*bucks, caffine, Coffee, coffee brewers, Coffee retailers, Oprah Chai Tea, SBUX, Starbucks, tea

WTF? Even Jasmine is disappointed

There are always people who hate Starbucks. It’s easy to do. A person can find retail coffee brewing houses that make as good, or better espresso drinks, and the die-hard loyalty of Starbucks customers, like myself, can be obnoxious. Even the term, ‘barista,’ can seem pretentious to some.

Still, Starbucks has always done one thing right: exceed customer’s expectations. Note some of their highlights:

When coffee drinking was dying out with old people who were raised in the era of the peculator coffee pot, Starbucks revolutionized coffee drinking with espresso drinks that created a new generation of caffeine consumers.
When other food and beverage businesses were trying to get the customer out the door as fast as possible, Starbucks was offering free WiFi and encouraging customers to enjoy a non-work, non-home, ‘third place’ to spend time to relax and enjoy.
When the coffee/tea/snack menu was becoming boring, Starbucks re-designed their menu and name to become known for more than just beverages.

Starbucks has always tried to do a little more than their competitors, which is why they have stood out.

But lately it seems Starbucks has fallen victim to the accountants and investors. This is to be expected. The average Fortune 500 or equivalent corporation last only between 40 to 50 years. Smaller companies have a much shorter life span.

“The average Fortune 500 or equivalent corporation last only between 40 to 50 years”

Typically a successful company manages become established and then after a period of time it catches fire. This is usually a combination of having a great idea at an unexpected moment. Customers often have a feeling of relief and joy associated with the product or service, a “WOW!” feeling. It can take twenty years or more for a business to have this kind of impact in a market.

If the business can survive the explosive growth phase, the next phase is coasting or reinvention. Coasting companies usually don’t make it to forty years. Competition is always ready to go after the market share of the leader who thinks they’re unbeatable. Anyone can copy and improve upon an idea.

However, the business that works to keep ahead of the competition by offering their customers something extra tend to outlast those who only copy them. Certainly, Starbucks fits this mold.

But at some point the accountants and investors start chipping away at a successful enterprise. They start by whispering, “We can save five cents per unit if we don’t do this. Why should we offer this, it doesn’t bring in revenue!” Soon managers are focusing on saving money to look good, not creating new sales.

“We can save five cents per unit if we don’t do this. Why should we offer this, it doesn’t bring in revenue!”

That’s when the wheels come off. As the company ‘saves’ money the customer begins to wonder why they do business with them instead of the competition. As revenue shrinks, investors get nervous, accountants ring the alarm bells and the pressure to do more with less boils the great people out of the company. At this point the fate of the company is set. The people left don’t know how to offer the unexpected to the customer and if they did, it would be against company policy.

Starbucks became forty on March 30, 2011. Today they are almost 44 years old. So where is Starbucks now?

A few years ago I noticed that most Starbucks stores took away all the trash cans from outside the store. Starbucks offers drive through service and outdoor seating a most of its stores, so it is obvious that outside trash cans are needed, but somewhere someone said, “Why do we offer to take care of people’s trash? It doesn’t provide revenue!” That was the first sign of a change in attitude.

This past holiday season Starbucks was again offering their ‘Sticker’ program for the holiday drinks, offering a free drink for every five holiday drinks sold. At least a week before Christmas Starbucks began running out of the holiday drink syrups. This was in contrary to past years when some of the holiday drinks were available until well into January. Why would Starbucks miscalculate how popular the holiday drinks would be, and how hard would it have been to order more from their supplier?

Of course, without holiday drinks, Starbucks saved money on the Sticker program. Obviously, an accountant projected the maximum loss of free drinks through the Sticker program and cut off the supply when the maximum benefit was reached in holiday drink sales.

The final evidence for me was subtle, but obvious.

Many Starbucks offer a ‘Puppachino’ (whipping cream in a kid’s cup) for people who have a dog. This is an off-menu free service and it caused our dog to go from barking at the Starbucks window attendant to quietly and anxiously anticipating her Puppachino. Today, our Puppachino was water in a kid’s cup with a little whip cream on top.

The simple change in a free service was a deafening moan of a company that is hemorrhaging goodwill from cuts to the veins of good management. No one would offer a cup of sticky, whip cream-laced water to their dog inside a car. It was a slap in the face of the customers. The manager is saying, “we can’t afford to offer this service, but we know you’ll bitch if we stop it, so here, pour this on your backseat.”

Starbucks is in full retreat and is following the spiral downward to be just another company that we will reminisce about in ten years.

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