Tag Archives: astronomy

The Betelgeuse Summer Problem

03 Monday Feb 2020

Posted by in Astronomy, NASA, Nevada, Reno, Science, Space, United States

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The star Betelgeuse is doing something. Something important. No one is sure what it means, but it has our attention and we want to keep our telescopes focused on it. Except that this Summer, we can’t.

What’s next for Betelgeuse? [NOTE: Image distorted by minor camera movement.]

Whatever is happening with the soon-to-be supernova Betelgeuse currently, it is critical astronomers and astrophysicists maintain close observation of the progenitor star. It may be decades, centuries, or millennia before it collapses and explodes into a spectacular show for our planet nestled some 640 lightyears away, and yet, at this moment, it is displaying behavior that may give us the first opportunity to learn what a supernova does before it does its supernova thing.

Betelgeuse and its parent constellation, Orion, are victims of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. For two months in the Summer (approximately Cinco De Mayo to Independence Day in the U.S.) the constellation is on the opposite side of the Sun from Earth. Astronomers will not be able to see the star at a time that may be crucial to understanding pre-supernova behavior.

Betelgeuse is a variable star that is undergoing a historic expansion, cooling, and dimming (fainting) phase. That process is likely near the end. Next up should be a contraction, warming, and brightening phase. That process will take months…right into Summer. When the curtain drops on Betelgeuse in May, Earth-bound astronomers and astrophysicists will be an audience without a show to watch.

Graphic 1.0 – Betelgeuse variable star cycle (hypothetical 2020 brightening cycle in blue.)

There are multiple possibilities for what might happen. Betelgeuse might increase in brightness over several weeks or months as it has in the past, then resume a normal cycle. It might brighten, but not to the magnitude it has in past cycles. The star might keep brightening to a greater magnitude than it has in the past. Betelgeuse might also brighten suddenly and begin its short-lived supernova phase. No one knows.

What is known is that astronomers will be observing Betelgeuse as long as possible. We will know if something major happens this Summer through other electromagnetic observations and non-Earth bound observation sources, but for amateur astronomers, we will have to wait and not see.

Betelgeuse is NOT Collapsing, It’s Expanding [NOTE: THIS IS IN ERROR]

24 Friday Jan 2020

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[Author’s Note:  This article is in error. I somehow misread the information provided in the Astronomer’s Telegram post stating that the star was decreasing in size. I discovered the error a few days after I posted the article. Since the premise of the article is incorrect, the entire article can be disregarded. Rather than delete the article, I am posting this announcement and leaving the original article intact. I apologize for any confusion or misunderstanding this article may have caused.]

Betelgeuse Collapsing? Think Again

The buzz about Betelgeuse is about its sudden and historic fainting (dimming.) Those who have a knowledge of the star and of supernovas have received the news with anticipation. Is this the great moment of Betelgeuse going supernova? Many people already know that immediately before the supernova, the progenitor star (the original star before a supernova) collapses in on itself. Betelgeuse is dramatically dimming, so it must be collapsing. Not true. Betelgeuse is expanding.

Dimming and Expanding Betelgeuse on 22 January 2020

Expanding Betelgeuse

Betelgeuse is dimming, but it is also cooling. Down approximately 100°K (180°F) in the past four months. This is an issue of physics. Temperature increases with increased pressure and the temperature decreases as the pressure decreases. The collapsing mass of a star increases pressure and temperature [¹SEE:  Primer on Combined and Ideal Gas Laws below.] The expansion of a star would cause a decrease in temperature. Betelgeuse temperature is decreasing, therefore astronomers believe it is expanding, not collapsing.

…Betelgeuse is currently the coolest and least luminous yet observed. Since September 2019, the star’s temperature has decreased by ~100 K while its luminosity (inferred from the C-band/m-bol observations) has diminished by nearly 25%.

Edward F. Guinan and Richard J. Wasatonic
Posted in The Astronomer’s Telegram 20 January 2020

No Joy On A Neighborhood Supernova?

Does this mean that Betelgeuse is not about to go supernova? Nobody knows. This could be the last big push outward before the finale we’ve been anticipating. It could also be another step toward the end but not the last gasp of Betelgeuse.

Betelgeuse in the Orion constellation

It is unusual behavior and worthy of constant monitoring. This may be one part of the process that will help us understand the last days, weeks, months, and years of a supergiant red star. Stars don’t suddenly brighten or dim without reason and now we have the opportunity to discover something new and visibly intriguing about the process of a star’s death.

What’s happening? Something wonderful.

[¹Primer on Combined and Ideal Gas Laws ].]

Betelgeuse: Schrödinger’s Star

21 Tuesday Jan 2020

Posted by in Astronomy, Communication, Ethics, Exploration, Higher Education, History, Honor, Internet, Journalism, Religion, Science, Space, Technology, Universities

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Much Ado About Something

Some astronomers are taking a dim view of the fading light of Betelgeuse. Many are trying to dampen down reports of the star’s demise while not ruling out the possibility. The reality of science is that no one knows what is happening.

What are you doing, Betelgeuse?

A Funny Thing Happened On the Way to a Supernova

Betelgeuse is the hot topic in astronomy because it has been dramatically dimming or ‘fainting’ [SEE Graph 1.0.] In a period of three months, it has dropped from being the eleventh brightest star in the night sky to the twenty-third brightest. This fainting spell is significant because when a star goes supernova it rapidly collapses prior to the event.

Astronomers Edward Guinan, Richard Wasatonic (Villanova University,) and Thomas Calderwood (AAVSO) posted a notice on December 8th of the fainting of Betelgeuse that helped raise awareness of the event. The news media became aware of it and by late December the fainting of Betelgeuse was trending in public speculation of a spectacular doom for Betelgeuse.

Graph 1.0 – Betelgeuse fainting is historic (2018 to current)

A 645-Year-Old Notice

Because of the distance between Earth and Betelgeuse, we wouldn’t know of a supernova event until approximately 645 years after it happens. Our first indication would likely be through a sudden increase in neutrinos. The visual confirmation would occur a few hours later.

If Betelgeuse has gone supernova within the past ≈645 years, then an astronomer could say that Betelgeuse has both gone supernova and has not gone supernova. The delay creates a Schrödinger’s cat scenario. The truth is unknowable.

But astronomers remind us that it may be 100,000 years of more until Betelgeuse makes a stellar spectacle of itself and then abruptly ends its role of marking Orion’s armpit. Their impreciseness of the future of the star is due to a lack of observations of the behavior of progenitor stars (stars that end their life as a supernova) in the years, months, weeks, and days just prior to a supernova.

Betelgeuse is the armpit of Orion

Why Don’t Astronomers Know?

It’s been over 400 years since a star in the Milky Way was observed after it went supernova. That event, like almost every other supernova observation, occurred after the star exploded. Rarely have astronomers been forewarned of an impending explosion and in those cases, the warning has been a matter of hours prior to the event.

To make an accurate prediction of a supernova, we must have data to create a theoretical model of behavior preceding the collapse of the star. The model must be created by using mathematical formulas based on observable data. Without the math, a prediction is just an opinion.

In science, “We don’t know,” is the motivation to discover the truth, even if the truth contradicts the desires and opinions of the majority. At the core of every legitimate scientist is an unwavering desire to offer facts and not mislead others. Astronomers can’t, and shouldn’t, attempt to predict a supernova. “We don’t know,” is the correct answer and the general public has to accept that answer.

Unfortunately, most humans don’t like not knowing. Religions like to give absolute answers to questions even if the answer is unknown or even if it is 100% wrong. A scientist and/or scholar is governed by a higher power of truth. For scientists, not knowing the answer is what makes the process discovery so satisfying. 

The End of the Faint?

In the past week observations of the fainting of Betelgeuse have leveled off. This may indicate that Betelgeuse is about to begin increasing in brightness. It may also indicate the fainting is pausing, or it may indicate that there is no pause and next week astronomers will see a continued drop in brightness. No one knows. 

Graph 2.0 – Is the dimming leveling off in mid-January? (OCT 2019 to current)

My Answer To the Question

I am not a scholar in the field of astronomy so I can state my opinion about the situation. My opinion is that at some time in the past 645 years, Betelgeuse has gone supernova…and it hasn’t.

You have to love Schrödinger.

Astrophysics Book Review – Space: 10 Things You Should Know

11 Friday Oct 2019

Posted by in Astronomy, Book Review, Communication, Education, Entertainment, Exploration, Higher Education, Information Technology, Internet, NASA, Passionate People, Photography, Print Media, review, Science, Social Interactive Media (SIM), Space, Technology, Traditional Media, Universities, Women, Writing

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Minding the Gap of Knowledge

Sharing the knowledge of scholars (e.g.; astrophysicists) with non-scholars is difficult. Astrophysics scholars have spent years obtaining a foundational understanding of the dynamics of our universe that is not obviously known to the public. They also have a working knowledge of special terms, acronyms, and highly cited authors. This creates a chasm with scholars on one side, who are advancing human knowledge, and non-scholars on the other side, unaware of the progress and activities of those in the field.

As scholars tend to be focused on their work and the work of their peers, it is rare to have a scholar attempt to bridge the chasm and help non-scholars have access to the secrets that have been uncovered and the challenges to be overcome. 

Dr. Becky Smethurst, astrophysics researcher, educator, YouTuber, and author

Dr. Rebecca Smethurst, or Dr. Becky as she is known on her YouTube channel, is one of those rare scholars who is diligently immersed in sharing new knowledge and discoveries in astrophysics with the public as she actively participates in furthering our understanding of it. In her new book, Space:  10 Things You Should Know, (2019) Dr. Smethurst continues to inform and enlighten us about what humans know and don’t know about the development of galaxies and the stars within them.

Review – Space:  10 Things You Should Know

Category:  Nonfiction, Science, Non-Textbook

UK/Europe Release: 5 September 2019 by Seven Dials Publishing
North America Release:  Summer 2020 by Ten Speed Press

Informative  ★★★★★
Relevancy  ★★★★★
Readability  ★★★★☆
Half-Life  ★★★☆☆
Expertise  ★★★★★
Visuals  ★☆☆☆☆

[Formats: Hardcover, Audio]

Dr. Smethurst has written multiple scholarly articles; however, this is her first book. It is a short, easy-to-read work of 10 chapters. Each chapter reveals information about our universe that may not be part of public awareness. 

The book is written in conversational language, not scholar-speak. It provides a basic knowledge of what we know about the formation of the universe, galaxies, and planets (including the Earth.) Amateur astronomers likely know most of this information, but Dr. Smethurst provides nuggets of new information that make the book worthwhile to read.

She begins with a view of how gravity is critical to how the universe functions. Because her work deals with supermassive black holes, Dr. Smethurst discusses what we know about black holes and theories of how supermassive black holes impact the galaxy they’re located in.

Dr. Becky also discusses Dark Matter, why scientists believe it is real, and what it means in the grand scheme of the universe. Two other chapters talk about the hunt for planets outside of our solar system and the practicality and current limitations of human space travel.

This book could serve as a unit in a middle or high school science class, but it is just as functional as a broad-based survey of current astrophysics knowledge for adults who can read above a sixth-grade level. As a first book by a doctorate-level scholar for consumption by the general public, it is brilliant.

As one might expect with a book of this nature, the subject matter is fleeting. As Dr. Smethurst states in her preface, “…science moves quickly…” Though this is not a textbook, it encounters the same problem as most textbooks in that research and discovery move forward while the printed book remains unchanged.

My projection is that the half-life of this is about seven to ten years. After that, about half of the information will become less relevant as new discoveries push astrophysics forward. That said, this book is certainly not a wasted effort and the need to persevere with updated information is critical.

If this book were a second or third book by this author I would expect to see a more expansive book and more visually stimulating. Both Carl Sagan and Brian Cox have used television and print to ignite a passion for science in the minds of the public. Their books are filled with images that help the reader to see science as a living entity filled with wonder and adventure.

Dr. Becky uses imagery extensively on her YouTube channel so it is likely that we can expect future books to have a greater visual element.

Still, as a first book, coupled with her YouTube work, Dr. Smethurst has built an impressive bridge to reach out to the public. As an active researcher, she offers a unique opportunity for non-scholars to access scientific information from a knowledgeable source rather than the entertainment-based news media.

Dr. Rebecca Smethurst is the one to keep a telescopic eye on.

Dr. Becky’s Astrophysics Work

Understanding The Life and Times of a Galaxy

In the last 100 years, our ability to visualize the stars has vastly improved but the galaxies we see today have changed very little in the past 10,000 years. Changes in the shape and location of a galaxy take millions of years to occur so what astronomers see today isn’t that much different than what they could have seen thousands of years ago.

What astrophysicists do know is the relative age of a galaxy. When we image a galaxy that is ten million light-years away we are seeing how it looked ten million years ago. By using the relative age of a galaxy and the characteristics of that galaxy, astrophysicists can identify group traits of similar galaxies and begin to understand how galaxies develop and eventually die.

The work of Dr. Smethurst has been to increase our understanding of the role of a galaxy’s core black hole (supermassive black hole) in the development of a galaxy and of its ability to establish new generations of stars. The current theory is that as the galaxy matures the core supermassive black hole sucks much of the free hydrogen out of the galaxy. Without an adequate source of hydrogen, the fuel for the formation of new stars is depleted and the galaxy becomes inactive. 

Dr. Smethurst’s Scholarly Astrophysics Linage

Dr. Smethurst’s advising faculty for her doctorate program was Dr. Chris Lintott. Since 2013, Dr. Lintott has been a co-presenter for the BBC’s enduring documentary astronomy television program, The Sky At Night and is a co-founder of Galaxy Zoo, an online crowdsourced project to engage the public in helping to categorize millions of galaxies for research purposes. Dr. Lintott’s advising faculty included the highly published and cited cosmologist Dr. Ofer Lahav.

Dr. Becky earned her Master’s degree in Physics with Astronomy at the University of Durham and her Doctorate degree in Astrophysics at the University of Oxford. Currently, she is a Junior Research Fellow at Christ Church College at Oxford University. Her focus is on studying galaxies and their interactions with their core supermassive black hole.

In 2014, [23 April 2014] Dr. Smethhurst was asked where she saw herself in five years. Her response was, “I’d look to reach the most amount of people as possible…to spread the word about the amazing things that people have no idea about.”

…to spread the word about the amazing things that people have no idea about…

Dr. Rebecca Smethurst – 23 April 2014

Now, five years later, Dr. Smethurst is achieving that goal through her new book, her YouTube channel, and her outreach work.  

Dr. Becky Smethurst

Dr. Becky on:

Sample of co-authored published work:

 

Is Jupiter the Cause of the Solar Sunspot Cycle?

26 Tuesday Feb 2019

Posted by in 1968, Astronomy, Eclipse, NASA, Science, solar, Space

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A Strange Coincidence

About every eleven years the Sun completes a sunspot cycle. Every 11.9 years Jupiter completes its orbit of the Sun. Coincidence? Maybe, but there is compelling evidence to suggest that Jupiter and the sunspot cycle are linked.

Image 1.0  Sunspots at the beginning of the 2017 Total Solar Eclipse

The Solar Sunspot Cycle

The solar maximum (the period when the Sun has the maximum sunspot count) of last six cycles occurred in 2012, 2001, 1990, 1979, 1968, and 1957. In each case, the solar maximum extended over many months, but by selecting a common date within the period, (e.g.; June 1st,) the eleven year period becomes apparent (SEE Graphic 1.0)

Graphic 1.0 The Eleven-Year Solar Cycle using a Common Date (June 1st)

It is important to note that the eleven-year cycle applies to the maximum sunspot activity. Solar minimums tend to vary significantly from cycle to cycle; however, solar maximum activity is usually reliable within plus or minus six months.

Jupiter’s Solar Cycle Precession

The question is, where is Jupiter in relation to the Sun during the solar maximums? The answer is simple. For the last six solar maximum cycles, Jupiter has been approximately twenty-five degrees (25°) further back in its orbit than the previous solar maximum. 

Graphic 2.0 The position of Jupiter in its Orbit for the Recent Solar Maximum Cycles and the upcoming cycle (Planets reflect orbital positions for 25 FEB 2019)

The idea of a connection between Jupiter’s orbit and the solar cycle has been traditionally scoffed at by astrophysicists; however, as more is understood about the dynamics of the Sun’s influence beyond the visible solar atmosphere, scientists are less eager to ignore the possibility. A 2016 German study suggests Jupiter, Venus, and Earth may all play a role in sunspot activity.

If there is a connection between the position of Jupiter and the solar maximum, it raises the question of why? Is it a gravitational link, or is it an electromagnetic link? Why does the solar maximum occur when Jupiter is approximately 25° further behind its position of the last solar maximum? Answers to these questions will certainly lead to more questions.

The answers may come soon. In the meantime, Jupiter is raising some interesting questions. 

Why Are There 360 Degrees in a Circle?

19 Monday Mar 2018

Posted by in All Rights Reserved, Astronomy, Eclipse, History, Photography, Science, solar, Space

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Everyone knows there are 360 degrees in a circle. Why? A circle could have a 1,000° which would make a half circle equal 500° and a quarter circle 250°. Who chose the number 360? Was there a vote? Who do we blame? Inquiring minds want to know!

Two circles getting in each other's way

2017 Total Solar Eclipse from Canyon City, OR

As it turns out there are at least two reasons we use 360° as the number to define a complete circle. One reason has to do with astronomy and the other with mathematics.

360 Degrees? Blame the Babylonians

The Greeks are partly responsible for defining the numerical value for a circle, but really it was the Babylonians. It may even be farther back than the Babylonians, but someone erased their hard drive and now we will never know.

Apparently, the Babylonians loved the number ’60.’ They created a number system using Base 60 (we use Base 10.) The number 60 is amazing because it can be divided into so many factors. 60 can be divided evenly by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 15, 20, 30, and 60. Since the Babylonians loved 60, the fact that a circle can be divided into six equilateral triangles made 360 the best option for defining the numerical value of a circle.

We don’t actually know if it was the Babylonians, but we do know that several prominent Greek mathematicians used 360° as the numerical value for a circle. It is written…in Greek of course.

Star Gazers In a 360 Days

But long before the Babylonians, it was obvious to anyone who looked up at the sky at night that the stars followed a circular pattern through the year. If one noted the position of a star or constellation on a particular night and time, next year that star would be in the same place on the same day and time.

The elapsed number of nights for a full circle? About 360. Anyone who tracked the stars would have noted that the circular pattern of the stars resumed after about 360 days.

The reason we have 360° is most likely because of the speed at which the Earth rotates, (once every 24 hours,) and there are approximately 360 rotations (days) in a year.

Metric Circles?

Believe it or not, there were attempts to make circles metric. It didn’t take. There are some uses for it, but the 360° value is more accepted ‘around’ (that’s a joke) the world.

Center of the Milky Way: Update

20 Tuesday Feb 2018

Posted by in Astronomy, Exploration, Generational, NASA, Photography, Science, Space, US Space Program

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During the history of humankind, we have looked up and stared at the center of our galaxy. Most of that time we created stories about it, but now we know some of the facts. If you’re not a space geek, astronomer, or science nut, you may not know what new information has been discovered about the center of the Milky Way. A lot of information has been learned in the course of our lifetime, even if you are only 16 years old.

ESO image Milky Way

The Milky Way Galaxy…as it was 26,000 years ago

Dust in the Wind

To see the Milky Way Galaxy requires getting away from bright city lights on a clear night. It looks like a faint cloud running across the sky at an odd angle. What a person sees is light that has traveled from the center of our galaxy for about 26,000 years. Some of those stars are gone, and new stars have formed.

What you may not know is the dim light coming from the central bulge at the center would be brighter than the full Moon if it weren’t for space dust. Near the center of the Milky Way are over ten million stars. If there were no dust we would just see a dazzling glow from the central bulge.

The Story of Black Holes

Our understanding of the Milky Way has coincided with our awareness and understanding of black holes in space. The idea of a black hole was first suggested in a letter by John Michell published in November 1784. The work of Albert Einstein on general relativity led to theoretical work confirming the mathematical possibility of black holes during the first half of the 20th century.

However, the first prospective black hole wasn’t discovered until 1971. At this point, no one suspected that the centers of all galaxies were black holes. It would be 2002 before Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Germany would produce evidence that a black hole was at the center of the Milky Way Galaxy.

What You Can’t See

The problems with determining a potential black hole are that, 1) as mentioned before, there is too much dust between Earth and the center of the Milky Way galaxy and, 2) a black hole doesn’t emit light. The first problem is solvable by using different wavelengths of radiation other than visible light. Gamma, infrared, and radio waves pass through space dust and allow astronomers to see their source.

The second problem in revealing a black hole is not what they are, but what they do. What black holes do best is produce the pull of gravity. Their gravitational effect is so strong that stars orbit black holes…before they are eaten by it. All astronomers had to do is find an invisible point that stars are orbiting.

Really, Really Fast Stars

It wasn’t as easy as it sounds, but they did it. What is now known as the supermassive black hole called Sagittarius A is at the center of our galaxy. A close group of stars orbit this invisible point at incredible speeds. Astronomers estimate the size of the black hole is big enough to encompass our Sun and extend almost to the orbit of Mercury.

One of the orbiting stars known as S2 comes only as close to Sagittarius A as four times the distance of Neptune is from our Sun. Despite that distance, S2 reaches speeds of 5000 km/s (11 million mph) as it swoops by Sagittarius A and heads back out in a highly elliptical orbit. S2’s orbit takes less than 16 years to make one complete orbit. S2 will make it’s next closest approach in a few months….well, it actually will have happened 26,000 years ago.

2018 Blue Moon Lunar Eclipse

31 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Astronomy, Eclipse, Photography, Recreation, Science, Space

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The Almost Super, Blue, Blood Moon

The western United States experienced a total lunar eclipse this morning just before dawn. I set up at 4:30 AM on a vantage point at the northwestern edge of Reno, Nevada with my camera and my telescope. It wasn’t as awe-inspiring as the total solar eclipse in Oregon on 21 August of last year, but it was impressive.

Blood-red Moon

Eclipsed Moon over Reno, Nevada

Unfortunately, Reno has been plagued with near constant high clouds this winter and this morning was more of the same. It allowed a good view of the eclipse of the Moon with the naked eye, but all my telephoto images lacked the clarity that I would have liked.

Coyotes Have the Last Howl

The best moment for me occurred after totality ended. As the Moon came out of Earth’s shadow, multiple packs of coyotes began to howl. It was amazing and a little unnerving. One coyote had to be within 150 meters, just below me. It is obvious that Reno is surrounded by packs of coyotes taking advantage of the food sources in human communities…including cats and dogs. Below is a recording of one of the two howling events.

I have seen several lunar eclipses in my life and it is fascinating to watch the white-washed Moon suddenly change to deep brownish red just before totality. The Moon becomes three dimensional and looks like a ball hanging in the sky.

My God, it's surrounded by stars!

Blocking the Sun’s reflected light allows us to see the stars near the Moon (click on image to see larger version)

During this eclipse, I noticed more stars in my images than in past eclipses. The high clouds hid almost all the stars from the naked eye, but the telephoto lens was able to capture them.

Buh, bye Moon!

A last look at the partially eclipsed, Moon setting behind the hills

Not Quite Super

The media plugged this Moon for this eclipse as the ‘Super’ Moon. They can get away with that, but the Full Moon of 1 January was the 2018 Super Moon. It was closer to Earth when it reach the Full Moon phase at the beginning of the month. This Full Moon was also near apogee when it became a Full Moon, but not as close as the New Year’s Day Moon. It was close, but not quite; however, an “Almost Super Moon” doesn’t have the same zip as Super Blue Blood Moon.

It was entertaining to listen to reporters try and explain the terms when they had no clue what they were talking about. Makes me think that maybe I’m entertaining when people read my articles…but not for the reason I would hope.

If you like the coyotes howl, below is the second event that I recorded a few minutes after the first one. I didn’t have my camera focused on the Moon at first, so I added images over the sound at the beginning, but the end is the real time video of the post-totality Moon with the coyotes singing in the background.

A New Year’s Earthquake?

21 Thursday Dec 2017

Posted by in About Reno, Education, Science, solar, Space

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Earth Science is one of my life’s passions. It was my first choice of study in college, but I gave up it when I discovered that calculus was required for any science degree.

However, I am a creature that is more fascinated by the world around me, than the details of societal norms. I don’t have a degree in science, but I do a lot of research on what real scientists have learned. That is why I’m interested in the orbits of the Sun and the Moon and the potential of an increase in earthquake activity starting near Christmas and continuing through the first week in January.

The gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon do not cause earthquakes. Earthquakes are caused by the movement of crustal plates at and near the surface of our planet. Anyone who claims that the Sun and Moon cause earthquakes is dancing on fringe science.

However, as the plates grind against each other they create stress and at times lock up. It is when a region of locked plates break free that an earthquake occurs. The bigger the movement after the release, the bigger the earthquake.

The gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon affects the Earth. This pull may have trigger effect on some earthquakes under certain conditions. It would be a situation where a region is near the release point, and the tug of the Sun and/or Moon gives the needed boost to start the movement of the stressed area.

Currently, the Earth is approaching its annual perihelion (closest approach) to the Sun. Perihelion will officially occur at 9:34 pm PST on 2 January 2018. At the same time the Moon is approaching its closest approach to Earth (perigee) for all of 2018 at 1:48 pm on 1 January.

The Sun and the Moon will be on opposite sides of the Earth around New Year’s Day, so the gravitational pull will be most intense at that time, potentially stretching areas of the Earth’s crust that are ready to break free. Will this cause and increase in earthquakes? I can’t answer that. No one can. But it will be interesting to track.

As always, preparation for an earthquake in those areas prone to have earthquakes, and in coastal areas is always wise, regardless of the orbits of the Sun and the Moon.

Happy Winter Solstice!

Confronting Truth: The Difference Between Science and Religion

27 Monday Nov 2017

Posted by in Education, Ethics, History, Passionate People, Religion, Respect, Science, Space, Technology, Universities

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There is a primary difference between science and religion. Religion discourages the confrontation of the ‘truth’ as it is presented by the leaders of the church. When I say discourage, I mean up to and including the murder of those who challenge the church’s version of the truth.

Science, not only accepts a challenge to the current truth, it is the fundamental architecture of all scientific endeavors to challenge the truth. Scientists accept that our current knowledge is incomplete, and that research, observation, and experimentation will replace the current truth of the universe around us.

A good example of this is our understanding of Earth and its relationship to other bodies in space. The religious doctrine stated that Earth was the center of the universe. Religious sources have claimed that holy text have told them the Earth is the center of the universe, and that was a truth which could not be challenged.

However, the concept of an Earth-centered (geocentric) universe had been challenged in the third century BCE by Greek astronomer and mathematician, Aristarchus of Samos, who theorized a Sun-centered (heliocentric) universe. Unfortunately, his idea lacked supportive evidence and was largely ignored.

Galileo was a victim of the Church, not of science

Over 1,700 years later, others began using observations that indicated that the geocentric model didn’t work as well as the heliocentric model. In January of 1610, Galileo Galilei used a telescope to discover three of Jupiter’s four largest moons, and observed that they orbited Jupiter. He then theorized that the Earth may also orbit the Sun, rather than the Sun orbiting the Earth.

This challenged the belief that dated back to Aristotle that all objects orbited the Earth, a concept that was adopted by both Islam and Christian churches. Galileo’s findings contradicted a fundamental truth of the church. For that crime, Galileo was subject to a Roman Inquisition, and ultimately, arrested and imprisoned.

While it is true that Galileo’s theories were not readily accepted, even by other astronomers of his time, he began a process of challenging truth, and using observation to determine truth. For this, Galileo is known as the father of the scientific method.

Some might think that their religion has outgrown this absolute interpretation of doctrine, and accepts scientific proof. To some degree, most Christian churches, when faced with overwhelming proof will either reluctantly accept the science, or become mute on the subject.

However, in the case of Galileo, the Catholic Church has attempted to use revisionism to explain its position on the geocentric/heliocentric debate. In 2004, the Catholic Church published a revised history of its role in the matter of Galileo. In a blog article on Catholic.com, the Church implies:

  1. that it was his fellow scientists, not the Church that disputed Galileo’s findings,
  2. that it was Galileo’s fault for promoting his theories that challenged Church doctrine,
  3. that Galileo failed to prove his position,
  4. that Galileo’s findings were not 100% correct, and 
  5. that Galileo did not suffer any real consequence for his research and findings.

All five of these points are twisted interpretations of what we know to be fact.

  • Galileo was persecuted by the Church, not his fellow scientists. Arrested by the Church, not this fellow scientists, and sentenced by the Church, not his fellow scientists. Yes, his findings were not widely accepted by other astronomers, but as Galileo was the first to observe Jupiter’s moons and their orbits, he would have been alone in promoting the observations.
  • Galileo had his observations, and while there would need to be more observations and the development of better technology to confirm his observations and conclusions, he had every right to promote the concept, even if it disputed the truth of the Church.
  • Galileo observed and hypothesized, but he wasn’t 100% correct. The Catholic Church suggests that because he wasn’t 100% correct that they were right in persecuting him for his theories. They were not, and the idea that the church was waiting for better evidence is a lie.
  • Galileo faced an Inquisition, and was sentenced. Whether he was tortured is not relevant to the Church’s role in trying to silence those who challenge the teachings of their doctrine.

Science seeks truth, but scientists know that all truth is subject to the gathering of more data, which may disprove the known truth and replace it with a new concept. The church believes that all truth comes from God, and it is not subject to revision, even if the truth of the Church is wrong.

Wimpy Sunspot Maximum Typical for Early in the Century

09 Saturday Nov 2013

Posted by in Science, Space

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Seven identified sunspots are on the Earth-side for 9 NOV 2013

Seven identified sunspots are on the Earth-side for 9 NOV 2013

Sunspots of 9 NOV 2013

Sunspots of 9 NOV 2013

The Sun’s sunspot maximum is turning out to be a dud, but that shouldn’t be a surprise. The sunspot maximum began its eleven year cycle in 2010 after one of the quietest solar minimums in recent history. Now in its fourth year, the sunspot maximum is one of the wimpiest since early last century.

Graph 1.0 Sunspot cycle for last 60 years

Sunspot cycle for last 60 years

The current sunspot activity is half to two-thirds of the previous five cycles (See Graph 1.0;) however, the current cycle is typical of the first solar maximum of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries (See Graph 2.0.)

Graph 2.0 Sunspot activity since 1700

Graph 2.0 Sunspot activity since 1700

The current cycle is also building to a double peak of sunspot activity that has been consistent in the last three sunspot maximums, which is typically followed by a rapid drop off of sunspot numbers. It is likely that activity will fall dramatically during 2014-15 leading us into the next solar minimum that will bottom out late in this decade.

Happy New Year!!!

22 Wednesday Dec 2010

Posted by in Random, Science

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by Paul Kiser
USA PDT  [Twitter: ] [Facebook] [LinkedIn] [Skype:kiserrotary or 775.624.5679]

Paul Kiser

For me, the New Year really begins today (December 22, 2010.) Being a science geek at heart, I tend to see the world slightly different that many and I see the day after the Winter Solstice as a rebirth. Yesterday was the shortest day of the year, so from now until June 21st the days will get longer and that is cause for celebration.

In addition, for the next two weeks the Earth is still getting closer to the Sun. This year the perihelion (Earth closest approach to the Sun) occurs at 11 AM PST on January 3rd, 2011. Sure, it’s a relatively minor difference between perihelion and aphelion (Earth’s farthest distance from the Sun), but it’s still a 3 million mile difference! In the cold and dark of winter I’ll take being even one mile closer to the Sun.

Split image of the Sun's relative size at perihelion and aphelion in 2009. Thanks to NASA, photo by Enrique Luque Cervigón

From now until January 3rd we’re getting closer to the Sun AND the days are getting longer. The fact that Christmas and New Year’s (and Hanukkah in some years) all fall in the same two week period tend to overshadow the science, but it does not diminish that, from an astronomical point of view, there is also good reason to be of good cheer.

That is, of course, for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere. For our friends south of the Equator today marks the march toward darker days that peak just before the Earth is the farthest away from the Sun. That just doesn’t seem to be as uplifting as our situation. Maybe we shouldn’t say anything to them.

Solar Halo around Sun on Dec. 21, 2010 (Winter Solstice in Reno, NV, USA

So Happy New Year to all of us in the Northern Hemisphere. Brighter, longer days are coming! For our friends in the Southern Hemisphere, uhm… man, is it hot out or what!

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