Tag Archives: 2018

SpaceX 2018 Launch Schedule Is PR Gold or PR Nightmare

28 Wednesday Feb 2018

Posted by in Business, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Exploration, Falcon Heavy, Marketing, Milestone, NASA, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, Science, Space, SpaceX, Technology, United States, US History, US Space Program

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SpaceX is dependent on its reputation of success and reliability. There is no room in SpaceX’s 2018 launch schedule for major failures. The successful launch of the Falcon Heavy with a Tesla Roadster as the payload has repaired the long delays of the program, but in the business of space, you’re only as good as your last mission.

SpaceX’s Starman in Earth orbit

SpaceX’s reputation will be determined by the successful implementation of three critical elements of their program. Failure of any of the three elements and SpaceX could be facing a public relations (PR) nightmare; however, success will prove Elon Musk’s lofty visions for the company might be more than just talk.

SpaceX Must Do No. 1 – Consistency in Payload Delivery

The Falcon 9 program has moved out of the novice phase and into the professional phase. The question remains as to whether or not SpaceX can consistently put payloads into orbit.

Landing the booster after these launches dazzles the public, but has no impact on the effectiveness or cost efficiency of the program. Most of the boosters are the previous Block 3 or 4 versions and will not be reused. There is an issue with the booster landings. How long will paying customers accept SpaceX’s waste of resources on the ‘reusable’ PR parlor trick?

The other issue cropping up is the reliability of the fairing on the nose of the rocket. There are persistent issues with the fairing and while SpaceX absolved themselves of the loss of the super secret Zuma satellite, questions still remain as to the role of the fairing release after launch. 

SpaceX Must Do No. 2 – Prove Falcon Heavy is Reliable

The inaugural launch of the Falcon Heavy was a spectacular success for SpaceX. The PR kudos continue to pour in with every new sighting by astronomers as the alternate human, Starman, drives his Tesla out further in the solar system.

All that could be lost if the next two 2018 scheduled launches of the Falcon Heavy experience problems. Failed launches of the Heavy would erase much of the PR boost of the first launch and call back into question the wisdom of a 27-engine booster. SpaceX has to duplicate the home run first launch at least twice more before customers will feel warm and fuzzy about the Falcon Heavy.

SpaceX Must Do No. 3 – Success of the F9 Block 5 Version 

Block 5 is the final version of the Falcon 9 booster and it goes into service in 2018. It is the booster that will be rated for human spaceflight and much of SpaceX’s future as a commercial space program depends on proving it answers all the concerns of the four previous versions.

NASA is requiring seven successful booster flights of the Block 5 version of Falcon 9 before it will be rated for humans. That means SpaceX has to successfully launch the same version of the booster, without significant redesigns, seven times.

SpaceX has scheduled the maiden and second flight of the Block 5 version for April. It then has to fit five more successful flights between May and November. Once achieved, SpaceX can be approved to send astronauts up on the Block 5 booster in December of this year.

2018 A Year of Glory or Humiliation

Elon Musk has a reputation for promising more than he can deliver. He is a master of overconfidence but now results matter. He knows how to carefully craft a situation to amaze the public.

The Falcon Heavy launch was one of those moments. When they see the video of Starman orbiting Earth in a shiny red Tesla with the top down, people don’t remember that the Falcon Heavy was supposed to be ready in 2013. When they see the first stage of a rocket magically land on the pad, people don’t care that the booster was never going to be reused again.

2018 isn’t going to be a time when showmanship is going to cover up glaring issues. If there are problems meeting this year’s critical goals, people will see the man behind the curtain.

However, if SpaceX manages to achieve these milestones with minimal problems, SpaceX will be the shining star of space exploration.

Five ‘Facts’ About the Equinox?

24 Saturday Feb 2018

Posted by in Astronomy, Random, Science, solar, Space, United States

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At 9:15 am PDT on the 20th of March, we will reach the Spring Equinox, or more correctly, the Vernal Equinox. People in the northern hemisphere refer to this as the beginning of Spring. It is also referred to as:

  1. the date when day and night are equal
  2. the date when the Sun shines on both the North Pole and the South Pole
  3. the date when the Sun rises exactly East and sets exactly West at every location on the Earth
  4. the date you can balance an egg on its end
  5. the date you won’t cast a shadow.

Two of these ‘facts’ are false, one is “well, sort of,” fact, one is “mostly true,” and one is true.

Timelapse From Space:  Seasonal Progression of Sunlight on Earth

The Date of Equal Day and Night?

Nope. While the length of day and night are almost equal on the day of the Vernal Equinox, it’s not actually true unless you’re closer to the North or South Pole. At the poles and the farther away from the poles, the less this is true.

For example, in Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, in the Arctic Circle, in 2018 the date that comes closest to being equal in day and night hours is the 19th of March (day = 11:58:51 hours long.) In Reno, Nevada, USA, the date day and night are almost equal  is the 16th of March (day = 11:59:28 hours long.) In Sydney, Austrailia that date is the 24th of March (day = 12:00:38 hours long.) In Bogata, Columbia it was the 21st of February (day = 11:59:59 hours long.) 

The Date the Sun Shines on Both Poles?

Yes, and on the North Pole, it spirals up from the horizon, around the viewer until the Summer Solstice when it begins to spiral downward, setting after the Autumnal Equinox in the Fall. The same is true for the South Pole, only the Sun rises at the Autumnal Equinox and sets after the Vernal Equinox.

South Pole sunrise

Sunrise on the South Pole

The Date the Sun Rises Dead East and Sets Dead West?

Mostly true. Its explanation makes my head hurt, but I’ve been able to use pencils on a globe on its axis with a single light source to prove it to myself. You can read multiple descriptions on the Internet but have pain reliever at the ready.

However, there’s a catch. The viewer has to have an unobstructed view of the horizon and be near or at sea level. The Sun’s trajectory is at an angle compared to the horizon and if the view of the true horizon is blocked the Sun will appear to rise or set at a location that is off from true East or West.  

The Date You Can Balance an Egg On Its End?

Long proven to be false…and stupid at the same time.

The Date of No Shadows?

Sort of true, but only if you’re on the equator at exactly high noon. Not many people want to do that…it’s hot at the equator. Who wants to stand out in the Sun at noon just to NOT see your shadow? Besides, the people who might want to do that are still trying to balance an egg on its end.

North Korea Bizzare Olympics Stunt

09 Friday Feb 2018

Posted by in Ethics, Government, History, Honor, Mental Health, North Korea, Olympics, Politicians, Public Image, Public Relations, Sports

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Why is North Korea now best friends with South Korea? It doesn’t make sense. Their desire to be a part of the Olympics seems sudden and out of character for a regime that rejects any effort to be diplomatic. Since he took over North Korea in late 2011, Supreme Leader Kim Jung-un has not been the model of rational behavior so why now is he making the effort to reunite with his sworn enemy, South Korea?

The Olympic rings in Hoenggye town, South Korea

At the time I’m writing this it is about 9:00 pm PST on Thursday, 8 February. The opening ceremonies of the 2018 Winter Olympics will begin in about six hours (8:00 pm KST in South Korea, 3:00 am PST.) My hope is that when I wake tomorrow morning that there will not be ‘Breaking News’ from the Olympics. I am not an expert on North Korea, but taking part in a public show of world unity is not what I would expect from Kim Jung-un.

A military parade the day before the opening ceremonies?

Mixed Messages, Being Loud and Clear?

It also seems suspicious that at the same time he is reaching out to South Korea, he also plays up his military with a massive public parade on the day prior to the opening ceremonies of the Winter Olympics in South Korea. It cannot be a coincidence, as it was clearly intended to be an aggressive display.

Many intelligence agencies around the world closely watch North Korea 24/7/365 so it is unlikely that they could be planning a major strike against South Korea during the Olympic games. Satellites are most likely tracking all North Korea military movements and someone would be aware of any questionable actions. 

However, no one can track all actions by agents of an enemy country and North Korea doesn’t need to make a military strike to cause chaos at in South Korea.

Shadows of 1976?

The 1976 Summer Olympic games in Munich, Germany commanded international attention when the athletes from Israel were kidnapped, and eventually died in a rescue attempt. The incident changed the Olympics from a place of harmony and sportsmanship to an event of terror. That would seem to be more in character with the motives of Kim Jung-un than an intention of good will.

[COUNT TO 500:  498th Article in PAULx]

2018 Blue Moon Lunar Eclipse

31 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Astronomy, Eclipse, Photography, Recreation, Science, Space

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The Almost Super, Blue, Blood Moon

The western United States experienced a total lunar eclipse this morning just before dawn. I set up at 4:30 AM on a vantage point at the northwestern edge of Reno, Nevada with my camera and my telescope. It wasn’t as awe-inspiring as the total solar eclipse in Oregon on 21 August of last year, but it was impressive.

Blood-red Moon

Eclipsed Moon over Reno, Nevada

Unfortunately, Reno has been plagued with near constant high clouds this winter and this morning was more of the same. It allowed a good view of the eclipse of the Moon with the naked eye, but all my telephoto images lacked the clarity that I would have liked.

Coyotes Have the Last Howl

The best moment for me occurred after totality ended. As the Moon came out of Earth’s shadow, multiple packs of coyotes began to howl. It was amazing and a little unnerving. One coyote had to be within 150 meters, just below me. It is obvious that Reno is surrounded by packs of coyotes taking advantage of the food sources in human communities…including cats and dogs. Below is a recording of one of the two howling events.

I have seen several lunar eclipses in my life and it is fascinating to watch the white-washed Moon suddenly change to deep brownish red just before totality. The Moon becomes three dimensional and looks like a ball hanging in the sky.

My God, it's surrounded by stars!

Blocking the Sun’s reflected light allows us to see the stars near the Moon (click on image to see larger version)

During this eclipse, I noticed more stars in my images than in past eclipses. The high clouds hid almost all the stars from the naked eye, but the telephoto lens was able to capture them.

Buh, bye Moon!

A last look at the partially eclipsed, Moon setting behind the hills

Not Quite Super

The media plugged this Moon for this eclipse as the ‘Super’ Moon. They can get away with that, but the Full Moon of 1 January was the 2018 Super Moon. It was closer to Earth when it reach the Full Moon phase at the beginning of the month. This Full Moon was also near apogee when it became a Full Moon, but not as close as the New Year’s Day Moon. It was close, but not quite; however, an “Almost Super Moon” doesn’t have the same zip as Super Blue Blood Moon.

It was entertaining to listen to reporters try and explain the terms when they had no clue what they were talking about. Makes me think that maybe I’m entertaining when people read my articles…but not for the reason I would hope.

If you like the coyotes howl, below is the second event that I recorded a few minutes after the first one. I didn’t have my camera focused on the Moon at first, so I added images over the sound at the beginning, but the end is the real time video of the post-totality Moon with the coyotes singing in the background.

Why You Won’t See A Tax Cut

15 Monday Jan 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Aging, Business, Ethics, Generational, Government, History, Honor, Human Resources, Politics, Taxes, US History

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Republicans are happy about the tax cut for the wealthy, oh, and the small temporary tax cut for the middle class

The Republican slant on the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed last month is that it is primarily a temporary tax cut for the middle class. The problem is that the temporary tax cut is minor and few families will actually notice any change. The temporary tax cut will be given in small increments on the paycheck, not a lump sum at the end of the year.

By The Numbers

So how much can a person expect to see their paycheck increase? Here are examples of the average temporary tax cuts those earning between $25,000 and $75,000 per year, paid every two weeks (NOTE: Total Tax Cut/paycheck is for each wage earner in a married family):  

(Source:  NYTimes Tax Cut Calculator)

Situation    Dependents   Ave. Tax Cut    Tax Cut/paycheck

Married                    2                     $1,420                     $27.31 ($54.62 total)

Married                    1                       $  970                      $18.65  ($37.31 total)

Single                        2                      $1,290                     $49.62

Single                        1                      $1,000                     $38.46

If you live in the   states (California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Washington, D.C.,) the tax cut is less:

Situation    Dependents   Ave. Tax Cut    Tax Cut/paycheck

Married                  2                       $  470                     $  9.04 ($18.08 total)

Married                  1                       $  370                     $  7.12 ($14.23 total)

Two to three trips to Starbucks every week* will wipe out the tax cut for most of the middle class.

Inflation Will Swallow At Least Half

Inflation is forecast to be at 2.3 percent for 2018. That means that for every $100 spent on groceries, gas, clothing, etc., the consumer will pay $2.30 more in 2018. If a person spends $30,000, the cost of living will increase by $690. That will wipe out almost half of the temporary tax cut for most of the middle class.

In the end, the only citizens that will notice a tax cut are major corporations and the wealthy. The middle-class citizen will mostly notice what they can no longer use as exemptions.

(*Assuming one $5.00 drink per visit x 6 times per paycheck)

What will the wealthy get back?

A family making over $750,000 could pay a middie class worker’s annual salary with their tax cut.

Situation    Dependents   Ave. Tax Cut    Tax Cut/paycheck

Married                   2                   $39,360                   $ 756.92  ($1,513.85 total)

Married                   1                   $34,050                   $ 654.81  ($1,309.62 total)

The 2018 Recession

06 Monday Mar 2017

Posted by in Aging, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Politics, racism, Taxes, US History

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Some people seem to believe that recessions are unpredictable. After all, if we could predict them, why would we let them happen? But recessions are predictable. They follow economic policies that are near-sighted. Policies that use deception to sell them to the citizens. Recessions happen because you can fool some of the people all of the time.

Recession:  The Shadow That Follows Republican Leadership

Republicans, back on top, recession to follow

Republicans, back on top, recession to follow

Republicans and recessions are inseparable. This was true in the 1980’s after Ronald Reagan made massive tax cuts for the wealthiest, while gutting domestic programs. President George Bush (41st) averted a recession when Democrats in Congress forced him to restore government revenues and increase government spending. The 2001 recession came after Republicans forced Bill Clinton to accept tax cuts and dismantle domestic programs after they took control of Congress. George Bush (43rd) used tax and domestic program cuts, along with massive military spending, and stripped down oversight of banking, to lead us into the Great Recession.

The pattern is simple. Republicans cut taxes, primarily for the extremely rich, and cut spending on domestic programs, taking away jobs and money from the economy. Minor tax relief is short-lived and is countered by an economy that is collapsing.

In addition to gutting the country’s economic foundation, Republicans favorite vice is to pour money into the military, which creates spending in small geographic areas, but it doesn’t support the broader sections of the peaceful economy. This type of spending for destruction fails to build lasting infrastructure that promotes the future economy, and creates a flow of government revenue for expenses outside of the United States to finance bases, logistics, and support troops. This money leaves our economy and doesn’t flow back into it.

donald-trump

The face of the economic failure

Trump’s Plan To Destroy the Economy
Government spending is the fuel of the U.S. economy. Specifically, government domestic spending. Military spending is usually burdened with unethical practices of the private military industry that tend to overcharge and under perform.

Donald Trump’s plan is to combine the economic errors of past Republican fiascoes and leave a middle class with low paying service jobs. Spending in the military is only effective if the United States is at war, so it is likely that Trump’s aggressive war of words with the rest of the world is designed to generate violent acts that can be manipulated into an air and ground war.

The result of Trump’s revival of failed Republican economic policies will bring on a recession in 2018, that may last for years.

Government Domestic Spending:  Real Jobs, Good Jobs
Growth in our economy has one common denominator:  Government domestic spending. Money spent by the government pays for both public and private sector jobs. Spending on programs that create new infrastructure and new technologies have the lasting effect on our economy. Spending on dams and hydroelectric programs, highways, and the space program all infused money and technological advances that moved our country into the economic leadership role that it has held for over a century.

When government fails to invest in internal programs it empties the pipeline of money that flows through the economy and that prevents money flowing back to the government, choking off the recharge of tax revenue that keeps the economy going.

Who’s Not Paying?
We are in a wealth crisis. As of 2012, the wealthiest ten percent (10%) of the United States own just under eighty percent (80%) of the wealth. The distribution of wealth in other affluent countries in 2012, showed that the top ten percent (10%) owned fifty to sixty percent (50-60%) of their country’s wealth.

Since Ronald Reagan, Republicans have successfully sacrificed the U.S. economy to make the wealthy, wealthier. Trump plans to put those efforts on steroids as he leads us to a recession that may resemble the Great Recession.

Can It Be Avoided?
No. The election of Donald Trump proved that there is no popular will to identify the problems caused by Republican economic self-pleasuring, and change course to put our country back toward a healthy economy. The best we can do is brace for impact and hope that our least educated citizens will finally see the consistent failure of Republican leadership.