Tag Archives: Presidential candidates

The End of Reliable Polling?

07 Monday Nov 2016

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Latest Huffington Post poll

Latest Huffington Post poll

Tomorrow night the United States of America may be in for a shock. Donald Trump is going to lose, but the question is by how much. I think the loss will be surprising. I am not a statistician, nor do I have access to polling data, but there is a reality that polls don’t take into account for in today’s world. Intelligent people don’t like to respond to polls.

Phone calls at home are annoying to everyone, but decades of abuse by telemarketing companies and caller ID technology have made answering the phone without knowing who is calling a vestige of the past. Polls rely on talking to people on the phone, and when people don’t answer, polls don’t work.

This impacts this election year because there is a bias in those who support Donald Trump and those who support Hillary Clinton. Just look at interviews of Trump supporters. These people can’t shut up. They have no ability to filter themselves, and they are desperate to tell people how much they don’t know. Trump supporters are begging for attention, and when someone calls them to ask them their opinion, they leap at the opportunity.

Clinton supporters are not as eager to make a spectacle of themselves. You don’t see Clinton supporters trying to be seen by the news media, and it would be logical that they don’t want to answer annoying, twenty-minute phone calls that ask them personal questions.

In addition, many conservative campaigns are putting out manipulative polls that force people into answering the questions in their favor, so they can appear to be leading. Intelligent people can recognize this, while Trump supporters fall for it.

I predict that Trump will lose by twenty points or more.

Unofficial Advance Copy of Trump’s Acceptance Speech

21 Thursday Jul 2016

Posted by in Communication, Ethics, Generational, Government, History, Politics, Public Image, US History

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donald-trump(Below is the unofficial advance copy of Donald Trump’s RNC acceptance speech. Other copies may follow, so please note the date at the bottom to verify the most recent version.)

In the course of the past eight years, America has suffered deterioration in all sectors of life, which could inconceivably have been greater. The question as to what, if anything, could have been worse than in these times is a question which cannot be answered in light of the basic values of America as well as the political and economic inheritance which once existed.

In spite of its lack of mobility in political feelings and positions, America itself has increasingly turned away from concepts, parties, and associations which, in its eyes, are responsible for these conditions.

The number of Americans who inwardly supported the Obama Administration in spite of the suggestive significance and ruthless exploitation of the executive power dwindled, in the end, to a mere fraction of the entire nation.

Another typical characteristic of these eight years was the fact that, apart from natural fluctuations, the curve of developments has shown a constant decline. This depressing realization was one of the causes of the general state of despair. It served to promote the insight into the necessity of thoroughly rejecting the ideas, organizations, and men in which one gradually and rightly began to recognize the underlying causes of our decay.

The Trump campaign was thus able, in spite of the most horrible oppression, to convert increasing numbers of Americans in terms of spirit and will to defensive action. Now, in association with the other conservatives causes, it has eliminated the powers which have been ruling, by means of a revolution, and transferred the people’s will to the hands of the new Republican party. 

The program for the reconstruction, Make America Great Again, is determined by the magnitude of the distress crippling our political, moral and economic life.

Filled with the conviction that the causes of this collapse lie in internal damage to America, the Republican party aims to eliminate the afflictions from our country which would, in future, continue to foil any real recovery. The disintegration of the nation into irreconcilably opposition, which was systematically brought about by the false doctrines of liberalism means the destruction of the basis for any possible community life.

The dissolution permeates all of the basic principles of social order. The completely opposite approaches of the individuals to the concepts of state, society, religion, morality, family, and economy rips open differences which will lead to a war of all against all. Starting with the liberalism of the past century, this development will end, as the laws of nature dictate, in chaos.

The mobilization of the most primitive instincts leads to a link between the concepts of a political theory and the actions of real criminals. Beginning with Mexicans and Muslims invading our country, Police officers murdered, and acts of mass violence, all of which are condoned by liberals. 

It will be the utmost goal of the my administration to stamp out and eliminate every trace of this phenomenon, not only in the interest of America, but in the interest of the rest of World.

It is not the task of a superior national leadership to subsequently surrender what has grown organically to the theoretical principle of an unrestrained unitarianization. But it is its duty to raise the unity of spirit and will of the leadership of the nation and thus the concept of the my administration as such beyond all shadow of a doubt.

My administration basically regards it as its duty, in accordance with the spirit of the people’s vote of confidence, to prevent the elements which consciously and intentionally negate the life of the nation from exercising influence on its formation. The theoretical concept of equality before the law shall not be used, under the guise of equality, to tolerate those who despise the laws as a matter of principle or, moreover, to surrender the freedom of the nation to them on the basis of democratic doctrines.

Our next task, in any case, is to call upon the spiritual leaders of these destructive tendencies to answer for themselves and at the same time to rescue the victims of their seduction.

God Bless America!

Version AH1933,

Cited Material:  1933 March 23, Berlin

Clinton Wraps Up Nomination

06 Monday Jun 2016

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The Inevitability of President-elect Clinton

The Inevitability of President-Elect Clinton

Hillary Clinton will take the next step to being our country’s 45th President tomorrow. Despite what the Sanders Desparitas say, the race is over. Clinton’s quiet wins in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands put her only 26 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination. Shortly after the voting ends in New Jersey tomorrow, she will have the over 80 more pledged delegates to clinch the nomination as the Democratic Presidential nominee.

With a near tie in California, Clinton will win another 270 pledged delegates, and Sanders will be about 300 pledged delegates behind. The four other races tomorrow will have no impact on the outcome, as each of those States have fewer delegates at stake than the District of Columbia.

It is likely that Sanders and some of his supporters will follow through on their threat to violently disrupt the National Democratic Convention; however, many Sanders supporters joined the campaign to work for positive change, and Sanders is demonstrating that he cares less about building, than destroying.

On the other end of the spectrum, Donald Trump is heading toward political bankruptcy as each news cycle becomes less about his campaign, and more about his unethical behavior. Even Trump’s tweets make him look pitiful and stupid.

Unfortunately for the Party of Stupidity (POS,) Trump delegates are locked in for the July National Convention, and regardless of how dismal his poll numbers, Trump will be the POS nominee, as thousands of our country’s worst citizens will be in Cleveland to cheer him on to failure. 

Nine months ago, I said that the GOP Presidential Race is Over and this has continued to be true. All we have left to do is watch how bad the Republicans lose.

Clinton Emails: Secrets To Be Exposed

01 Wednesday Jun 2016

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Hillary ClintonDonald Trump and Bernie Sanders campaigns are rejoicing at the revelations about to be exposed from secret Hillary Clinton emails on a private server, while she was Secretary of State. Among the revelations are:

  • In 2009, Clinton attempted to humiliate, then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, by arranging to have him photographed in the nude, riding a horse.
  • In 2012, Clinton outlined a plan to become President, and use the Girl Scouts of America to send their members door-to-door under the ruse of selling cookies to determine which homes had guns, followed by night raids by Navy Seals to collect the guns.
  • In 2010, Clinton admitted in an email, that while she was Senator from New York, she conspired to run for President as a ruse to become Secretary of State, where she intended to set up a private email account, rather than using a government email account.

Fox News broke the story today and declared that this scandal will finally end the Clinton campaign to become President of the United States. Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, reacted to the news by saying, “Huh, what?” followed by a scathing, “Okay, great.”

Mitch McConnell said,

“Finally, we not only have the smoking gun on Clinton, we have the powder, the shot, the wading, and that tamper thing that you use to push it all the stuff down the barrel. She not going to be President because she’s going to jail!”

Vladimir Putin tests drives new Russian personnel carrier

Vladimir Putin tests drives new Russian air conditioned military personnel carrier

According to sources in the FBI familiar with the emails, the attempt to humiliate Putin was almost thwarted when he refused to take off the pants; however, the photographer decided that an image of Putin’s sagging breasts and small hands were adequate to accomplish the goal.

Apparently, the conspiracy to collect guns from United States citizens was later eliminated when it was determined that gun owners would likely shoot a Girl Scout under the assumption she was a burglar.

In a campaign speech today, Trump said, “There’s going to be a lot more coming out on Clinton’s emails. I know, because, really, I’m God, no, really, I am, and I’m not happy with her.” Sanders responded to questions from reporters about the rumors of the secret emails by saying, “This campaign is about momentum, and the superdelegates….I’m sorry, what was the question?”

Sanders Supporter’s Big Blunder

31 Tuesday May 2016

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Bernie Sanders supportersThe biggest mistake of Sander’s supporters is the ignoring the opportunity they have in front of them.

Sanders has lost the nomination, and the attempt to destroy the Democratic Party is not going to change that fact. Beyond whining, the main message I hear from Sander’s supporters is that it is time for changing the status quo.

Liberal and progressive people are unified in investing our money in people, not corporations. They are unified in maintaining strong government regulations that level the playing field in every commercial endeavor, including the banking and finance industry. Most Clinton supporters would completely agree that current government established by conservatives, for conservatives, and against the citizens of the United States, must be fixed.

The problem is that neither Hillary Clinton, nor Bernie Sanders can get anything done if both the House of Representatives and the Senate are run by conservative.

This is the big blunder of Sander’s supporters. Hillary Clinton will be ruled and regulated by Congress. If Sander’s supporters really want to see change, they need to stop wasting time on a lost cause, and start identifying the politicians that will focus on fixing our country, not shutting it down.

If Congress voted for a law to force banks to be smaller, and added new regulations, Clinton would have to accept it. To go to war with her own party would end her Presidency. If Clinton feels that Congress is too liberal, she will have to either get on board, or be humiliated.

Sanders supporters don’t understand this, because if they did, they would be one hundred percent focused on Congressional races, and not drooling at the idea of destroying the Democratic National Convention. There is nothing that will happen in Philadelphia this July, because it is meaningless. National political conventions are all show, and no substance.

The alpha and omega of positive changes in our country will be in the hands of Congress. If the dust settles in November and the Republicans still have control of either the House or the Senate, nothing, absolutely nothing will change.

Ironically, the real catalyst for change is in the hands of the Sanders supporters, but they have no idea of what to do with what the power they have in changing Congress.

What Trump Didn’t Do Today

17 Tuesday May 2016

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Donald Trump: The Republican Anti-Christ?

The SS Trump:  A disaster in progress

It didn’t happen. Trump didn’t do it. Donald Trump didn’t drop out of the Presidential race today as I predicted he would at 9:00 AM EDT. I was wrong.

If I ever wanted to be wrong about something, this was it. The SS Trump has set sail across the sea of stupidity and the Republican party is all on board. Trump doesn’t fear the icebergs of reality because he doesn’t believe in reality.

I knew my prediction would probably be wrong after I heard about last Thursday’s ‘Big GOP meeting.’ Instead of setting the stage for a Republican reality check and Trump’s departure, Paul Ryan played the role of Lucius Malfoy and pretended that our country’s Voldemort was going to be reborn and not be the laughing-stock of the world.

It is possible that the Republican leadership is really as stupid as they are acting, but I have a hard time accepting it. Our two-party system has had many bumps and bruises in the last two centuries, but when one party is going down in flames, the core believers in that party usually regain control and steer it back on course. That doesn’t seem to be happening this time.

But maybe I’m wrong about the date? Maybe he still is running a fake campaign but he’s going to drop out later? If he is going to drop out, he doesn’t have much time. Every day Trump adds another nail in the Republican coffin, and conservatives have been digging their grave since Reagan was President. 

Regardless, I was wrong about May 17….today is a great day!

Sanders To Have Good, Meaningless Days May 10 & 17

09 Monday May 2016

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bernie_sanders_jef_AP

Bernie Sanders:  Two laps behind at the finish (Steve Helber/AP)

Tomorrow (May 10) West Virginia holds their Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders will easily win and once again he will beat his breast and say:

…this campaign is about momentum….

What he should be saying:

…I only win in small, meaningless States with mostly rural, white voters…

West Virginia has 37 delegates at stake and Sanders will win about 20 of those delegates. He is, of course, behind by 290 pledged delegates, and a net gain of 3 pledged delegates will not change his loser status. After his loss to Hillary Clinton in Guam on Saturday, he will only gain two delegates.

Sanders will have another big win in Oregon on May 17, but again, his net gain will be 20 delegates or less, and he is almost 290 pledged delegates behind. Clinton only needs to win about 160 more pledged delegates, and with the superdelegates, she will win the nomination. That will happen on June 7, in the California primary, where she is likely to win over 200 delegates in one contest. 

It is like watching a foot race where Sanders is two laps down, and he passes Clinton just before the she crosses the finish line. He can brag about momentum all he wants, but he still is over a lap behind and he will still lose the race.

Trump and GOP About to End the Facade?

08 Sunday May 2016

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Donald Trump: The Republican Anti-Christ?

Donald Trump: The Republican Anti-Christ?

Cruz is out. Kasich is out. It’s all over. Donald Trump wins, and the Republican party goes down in flames in one of the biggest political blunders since Nixon began recording his phone conversations.

Could it be true? No. 

I have a hard time believing that the current antics of the Republican party are genuine. A year ago all Hell broke loose in the Republican party. Every wacko came out to run for President, and the party was being divided up into little pieces. It looked like the 2016 Presidential race was over before it started. (SEE: The Trump Card – Aug 2015)

Joffrey: The Leadership Model for Trump

Joffrey: The Leadership Model for Trump

Enter Donald Trump. From the start, Trump’s tactic was to be the biggest and loudest wacko. It made no sense. The majority of voters of the United States of America were not going to elect the Joffrey Baratheon of conservative politics as President. Not even a majority of Republicans would fall for it.

But, Donald Trump was accomplishing one vital objective. He was rounding up all the wackos under one banner. That was huge.

The only problem was that, in the process, Trump alienated the rest of the country. Could Trump be so stupid to think that he could charm intelligent people after insulting them for a year? Could he be so stupid to not realize that he was inciting a backlash of voters who would not only send him down in flames, but send the rest of the party with him?

In August of last year, I said that I thought that Trump’s run for President couldn’t be real and in December I even predicted a date and time as to when he would drop out and order his minions to vote for the real Republican Presidential candidate. (SEE:  Trump Dropout Countdown – DEC 2015)

Last month I admitted that at least part of my prediction was wrong, and that Jeb Bush was apparently not to be the beneficiary of Trump’s fake campaign. (SEE:  Am I Wrong About Trump? – APR 2016)

Now it is less than ten days to my May 17th prediction and it there is no indication that Trump is ready to end the charade; however, I still believe Trump is faking it.

Why?

It’s Just Business
In big business, especially in investment and real estate, the game is deception. Make your competition think you’re doing one thing, while you are actually doing something completely different.

Trump is a businessman, and he is skilled at the art of deception. He is arrogant, but he’s not that stupid. Trump’s buffoonery is too much drama, and indicates he is trying to create the grand illusion.

To fake out the country, and then pull in the ‘hero’ who would save the day, would be Trump’s ultimate business deal.

Ryan’s Denials:  Methinks the Lady Doth Protest Too Much
Paul Ryan is the most likely person to play the hero role at the end of Trump’s melodrama. He has been exceptionally low-key in this past year, which would be expected if he was avoiding any political controversies prior to a run for the President.

One could make the argument that it is easy to be Mr. Invisible when you don’t do anything, but Ryan has never been shy about the political spotlight even though he does nothing. To go from a rank and file Representative with national recognition to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and become invisible doesn’t make sense.

He has denied he would run for President, but Ryan denied that he would be the Speaker of the House five times before he ‘reluctantly’ accepted the position. He seems to play coy, and then force people to woo him before he suddenly take pity on the poor mortals, and does what he says he won’t.

The more Ryan denies that he will run for President, the more likely he will.

Reince Priebus: In on the Big Secret?

Reince Priebus: In on the big secret?

Anemic Republican Leadership
Another clue is the attitude of Reince Priebus, the chairperson of the Republican National Committee. For over a month now Priebus has been playing peacemaker with Donald Trump. This is odd. The party is in uproar over Trump as their nominee, and the leader of the party is acting as if Trump is just a misunderstood child.

This behavior doesn’t make any sense unless Priebus knows that Trump is running a fake campaign, and that he will drop out and throw his support behind a real candidate.

The End Game
Donald Trump has achieved his goal. All the GOP wannabes have dropped out of the race. There is nothing more for him to do but drop out.

However, Trump can’t just announce that he is dropping out of the race and tell his supporters to vote for Ryan. He has to lay the groundwork first. The following is a scenario of how it might happen:

  1. GOP Uproar. There has to be enough outrage from high profile Republicans to make it look as if that Trump will not be able to win in November. This has already started happening, but this has to reach a crescendo just before he takes the next step.
  2. The Big Meeting. Once it appears that Trump has no support from the GOP establishment, a meeting between Trump and the Republican leadership would be needed. The meeting gives Trump a cover story, so that it doesn’t look like his campaign was faked from the start. The meeting will later be credited with laying the groundwork for Trump to bow out and for Paul Ryan to step up as the Presidential candidate. Last Friday (May 6,) the Republican leadership announced a Big Meeting with Trump and the Republican leadership, including Paul Ryan. It is scheduled for this Thursday, May 12.
  3. Trump’s Anguish. After that meeting, Trump will ‘have to think some things over.’ There will be leaks to the press that Trump was told he can’t win and that he will destroy the Republican party. Trump’s campaign will begin to leak that he is concerned about the damage he is doing to the Republican party, and there will be hints he is dropping out. The rumors will need a few days to soak in.
  4. The Big Fall. As soon as all the news media is speculating that Trump is about to drop out, and that a deal has been brokered, Trump will make his announcement that he is falling on his sword for the good of the party and the nation. Paul Ryan’s announcement that he is stepping into the race has to come at the same time, or almost immediately to keep anyone else from restarting their campaign. May 17 would be about the right timing, even though Kentucky and Oregon primaries are on that day.

Of course, I could be wrong. Perhaps Donald Trump is stupid enough to think that he can reinvent himself and win over moderates, but I have faith in the citizens of the United States. Whether Abraham Lincoln said the following or not, it applies to Donald Trump:

You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

Sanders is Still DOA: Math Trumps Rhetoric

04 Wednesday May 2016

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Bernie Sanders Math: If I lose, I should still win!

Bernie Sanders Math: If I lose, I should still win!

Bernie Sanders won Indiana. Well, sort of. 

If by winning, you mean he received 34,466 more votes, then yes, he won.

However, exit polls showed him pulling a surprise 12% win, which would have helped his famous, and endless claim of ‘momentum,’ but he only came in with less than half of that percentage.

But the real contest is who wins the most delegates. Before Indiana Sanders was 327 delegates behind, and his Indiana ‘win’ nets him six more. Six more delegates is not even close to what he needed. Now he is has a deficit of 321 delegates, and between now and the June 7th California primary there are only 262 delegates available. Even if Sanders won one hundred percent of every primary and caucus between now and June 7th, he would still be behind Hillary Clinton in delegates.

California is the end of the road for Sanders. He can refuse to concede, but it won’t matter. There are 548 delegates available in the California primary. Clinton needs 181 of those delegates, along with the superdelegates who’ve pledged their vote to her, and she has the nomination.

Sanders needed to have a stunning win in Indiana to keep up the appearances of a contender, and he didn’t. His campaign has even given up the idea that he has to win the most pledged delegates, and is now focusing on converting the superdelegates to vote for him even if he can’t win the majority of regular delegates. That’s just a fantasy.

Hillary Clinton: In her 3rd decade of fighting for a government by the people

Hillary Clinton: Coasting to the nomination

The superdelegates are loyal Democrats. That’s how they earned the honor of being a superdelegate. Sanders is not a Democrat. He is an Independent who refused to join the Democratic party until he decided to run for President. His plan to ‘convert’ the superdelegates would require that some of the most loyal Democrats abandon the real Democrat who has won the most pledged delegates, to give the nomination to a candidate who is a Democrat in name only. It is not going to happen.

Under the rosiest scenario, Sanders will 129 delegates between now and June 7th. That would only give 66 more delegates to Clinton, but she would then only need 115 more delegates to win the nomination. Currently she is ahead of Sanders in California by ten points, but lets assume that Sanders wins by ten points. He would win 329 delegates, and Clinton 219.

Clinton will clinch the nomination in California by over one hundred delegates, even if Sanders wins every primary/caucus up to, and including California. Not only does Clinton win, but she also will still have over one hundred more pledged delegates than Sanders.

Sanders is claiming the system is rigged. He’s correct. It’s rigged to nominate the person who wins the most delegates, and that is Hillary Clinton.

The only question left is who she will face in the general election. Will it be the Donald Trump, or will there be an eleventh hour switch to Paul Ryan?

Am I Wrong About Trump

06 Wednesday Apr 2016

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Goodby Mr. Trump

If you’ve been reading my blog, seven and a half months ago I predicted that Donald Trump mission was NOT running for President, but instead he was gathering up all the wacko conservatives to deliver them to a real Presidential candidate. (SEE:  The Trump Card – 21 Aug 2015) Four months later, I not only confirmed my prediction, I set a date and a time (17 May at 9:00 AM EDT) for Trump to drop out. (SEE:  Trump Dropout Countdown – 21 Dec 2015) Now that we are about a month from my prediction, the question is, am I wrong about the Trump fake candidacy? 

It appears that I am wrong about one part of the prediction. I predicted that Trump was gathering up all the unintelligent, older, white males to deliver to Jeb Bush several weeks prior to the Republican convention. Unless Jeb Bush steps back into the race, which is unlikely, my prediction regarding the beneficiary of Trump’s fake candidacy is wrong.

However, several things have happened in the past week that indicate Trump is following a path to drop out. First, he had a staged meeting with the Republican leadership on March 31. This meeting was allegedly about Republican ‘unity,’ but it is exactly the type of meeting I suggested that Trump would have with the Bush campaign before he dropped out. This meeting sets the stage for him to drop out ‘after discussions with the Republican party,’ which allows him to tell his supporters that they must vote for the chosen Republican party candidate when he drops out.

Second, Trump is dismantling his campaign staff. The headline for one of yesterday’s stories in the Huffington Post was “Trump’s Campaign In Disarray.” This indicates he is preparing to drop out soon, and by dismantling his campaign now, he will likely not perform well in the upcoming primaries in New York on April 19, nor in the rest of the Northeastern bloc of States on April 26.

The GOP’s Biggest Loser, To Become Their Last Hope?

All of this allows Trump to have enough excuses to justify ending his campaign in order to look like it wasn’t a fake from the start. That’s important so that he can convince his supporters to back the appointed candidate. At this time, I believe that person to be Paul Ryan.

However, everything that is happening is at least a month earlier than I expected. It might be possible that the Republican party wants to put Paul Ryan in the game early in order to keep Ted Cruz from being a front-runner.

Why the Deception?
Why would Trump need to run a fake campaign?

Simple. The Republicans have backed themselves in a corner on issues. All the issues they campaign with are destroying their chances of being elected. They have pandered to the stupid, white males to the point that the majority of United States citizens are disgusted with them.

Trump's Chump?

Trump’s Chump?

To have a chance at winning, the Republican party needs to use trickery and deception to avoid a campaign on issues. Trump’s fake campaign provides a Presidential candidate that avoids a bumbling Primary race surrounded by idiot candidates that sink all boats.

It’s still possible I’m wrong, but if I am, the Republican party is done. A serious Trump Presidential campaign would be catastrophic to the GOP. If I’m right, then Ted Cruz is going to look pretty stupid when Paul Ryan steps in and he’s left at the altar…praying to his Canadian God.