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Tag Archives: California

Housing Prices Edge Closer to Catastrophe

04 Sunday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Business, Crisis Management, Customer Service, Economy, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Housing, Real Estate, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States

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2007-09 Recession, California, Colorado, Disaster, economy, home prices, Homes, housing, investment owner, Massachusetts, median home price, Nevada, owner-occupied, real estate, Recession, recession of 2018, United States

For the last twenty years, the United States has been building a tower of paper wealth. Over time the paper value of homes on the market has far outpaced inflation and wage growth. The current realty market has little connection to reality and we are on the brink of a housing catastrophe.

Price With No Reality Check

The real estate market is inherently flawed. Some claim that it is a perfect example of supply and demand, but that is not accurate. Real estate is the perfect example of a capitalistic market where common sense and ethics are overlooked because greed has blinded the people involved.

Prices exceed the bubble of 2007

Home Prices Heading Toward a Cliff

Housing prices are not governed by a person’s (or family’s) ability to pay. They are governed by a real estate professional who has a financial interest in driving the price up, and an owner that wants as much money as possible. The buyer taking all the risk and if the housing prices don’t continue upward, they lose.

So why would anyone buy a house when prices are already too high?

The ‘Investment’ Loophole

Historically, the one house, one owner or owner-occupied concept kept a check on housing prices. If the buyer couldn’t pay the mortgage, he or she would lose their home. That was a big risk. Today’s investment buyer risks little if anything if they can’t pay a second home mortgage. She or he may lose the home if the investment fails but is a loss of potential future revenue and not a personal crisis.

Investment housing creates artificial shortages because one owner can own multiple homes, removing those from the overall inventory. The lower the supply, the higher the price. In 2016, the number of owner-occupied homes in the United States was 63.6%. California’s owner-occupied rate is 55.3% and at $524,000, its median home price is over double compared to $206,300 for the United States.

Median home price in four cities compared to U.S. average

Another 2007?

The current median price for a home in the United States is higher than it was during the housing bubble in 2007. Any shock to the economy would erase the paper home value and flood the market with another round of investment homes being dumped on the market.

It is a crisis that is easy to anticipate, but no one does. When the next recession hits the United States will once again suffer through a massive drop in housing prices as multi-house owners dump their investment homes and walk away.

[COUNT TO 500: 493rd Article in PAULx]

Nevada’s Pot Business About to be Smoked

03 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Aging, Branding, Business, Education, Employee Retention, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Green, Health, Higher Education, History, Honor, Management Practices, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Public Relations, Recreation, Respect, solar, Space, Taxes, Technology, Travel, Universities, US History

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California, Carson City, corporate tax cut, corporations, divorce, economies, economy, educational ranking, Elko, Ely, gambling, gaming, gold mining, Henderson, Indian gaming, Las Vegas, mining, Nevada, Reno, Unemployment, Violent Crime, Winnemucca

Welcome to Nevada, where citizens watch other people get rich

Nevada has relied on being the rebel for decades, and it always fails to provide a reliable economy.

When gambling was taboo in the nation, Nevada became one of the few places people could gamble. People flocked to Nevada to gamble. Nevada had a ‘gaming’ industry.

In 1988, the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act opened the door to legalize gambling on Indian Reservations, and over the next three decades California built up an Indian Gaming industry that didn’t require taking chances with a trip to Nevada. Nevada’s gaming industry stagnated.

When a quick marriage and/or a quick divorce was taboo in the nation, Nevada made divorce easy. People flocked to Nevada to officially end or begin a relationship. Nevada had a marriage industry.

Then divorce became a fact of life and most of the rest of the country decided that government should be trying to inhibit the desires of a couple, so they made marriage and divorce easier. Couples no longer had to travel to Nevada to say their vows, or go their separate ways and Nevada’s marriage and divorce industry collapsed. 

Gambling, divorce, prostitution have all been part of Nevada’s economic plan, and they all have created more problems than money for its citizens. It’s a consistent trait of Nevada’s leadership in pursuing big money that comes with little or no foundation in what is best for the average citizen.

For the last six months, Nevada boosted its economy with legalized recreational marijuana sales. Again, people from California flocked to the state to get what they couldn’t get at home. Pot. And again, Nevada’s economic boost will be short-lived as California recreational pot business gets underway in 2018.

Nevada is a state where a few people become filthy rich and pay very little in taxes. Nevada compounds the problem by prostituting themselves for marginal industries that are not stable and corporations that seek to avoid paying their share of taxes while reaping big profits.

The result has been that Nevada has no money to improve schools that are ranked near the bottom in the United States. Nevada’s poor education record has resulted in businesses needing a highly educated workforce to go elsewhere despite the seductive tax environment.

Nevada has to stop lusting after short-term economies and start building a real economy…or watch the hopes and dreams of its citizens go up in smoke.

Clinton Wraps Up Nomination

06 Monday Jun 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Politics, Religion, Taxes, US History

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Bernie Sanders, California, Democrat, Democratic Presidential Nomination, Democrats, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, New Jersey, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Presidential race, Primaries, Primary, Senator Bernie Sanders, Vote

The Inevitability of President-elect Clinton

The Inevitability of President-Elect Clinton

Hillary Clinton will take the next step to being our country’s 45th President tomorrow. Despite what the Sanders Desparitas say, the race is over. Clinton’s quiet wins in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands put her only 26 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination. Shortly after the voting ends in New Jersey tomorrow, she will have the over 80 more pledged delegates to clinch the nomination as the Democratic Presidential nominee.

With a near tie in California, Clinton will win another 270 pledged delegates, and Sanders will be about 300 pledged delegates behind. The four other races tomorrow will have no impact on the outcome, as each of those States have fewer delegates at stake than the District of Columbia.

It is likely that Sanders and some of his supporters will follow through on their threat to violently disrupt the National Democratic Convention; however, many Sanders supporters joined the campaign to work for positive change, and Sanders is demonstrating that he cares less about building, than destroying.

On the other end of the spectrum, Donald Trump is heading toward political bankruptcy as each news cycle becomes less about his campaign, and more about his unethical behavior. Even Trump’s tweets make him look pitiful and stupid.

Unfortunately for the Party of Stupidity (POS,) Trump delegates are locked in for the July National Convention, and regardless of how dismal his poll numbers, Trump will be the POS nominee, as thousands of our country’s worst citizens will be in Cleveland to cheer him on to failure. 

Nine months ago, I said that the GOP Presidential Race is Over and this has continued to be true. All we have left to do is watch how bad the Republicans lose.

Sanders Campaign Implosion

22 Sunday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Politics

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2016, Bernie Sanders, CA, California, campaign, Democrats, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, Nevada, Nevada State Democratic Convention, Presidential election, Presidential race, Primaries

bernie_sanders_jef_AP

Bernie Sander’s campaign has already driven over the cliff, they just refuse to look at what’s coming up at them (jef/AP)

The Bernie Sanders campaign is about to implode, and it won’t have anything to do with unfairness, or a rigged selection process.

Money
The Sanders campaign has been spending massive amounts of money to win small states. This has been a tactic to keep up the appearance of having momentum, even though the New York primary effectively ended his campaign. Now he faces the June 7th primary in six states and the big prize is California. He needs money for ads, for campaign workers, for materials, for travel, and the thousands of expenses of running a national campaign.

On June 7th, Sanders would have to win in all the states to argue his legitimacy in the race, but California is the I-beam that will break his back. Without money to ‘burn’ in California he can’t effectively campaign during the critical final two-week push.

Summer Breakdown
Sanders campaign is more like a street gang, than a political organization. They need each other to maintain their passion. He has effectively used the micro environments at colleges and universities to build excitement and recruit supporters. The bad news is that almost every college in the United States is going or has gone on summer break this month. He has lost his core of his organization and while many students have been assigned to volunteer duties for his campaign over the next few weeks, the ‘gang’ nature of his organization has been lost.

Sanders would like to be able to storm through college campuses in California, whipping up support, but he can’t because most of the students are gone, and/or they’re working summer jobs. In effect, he has lost the foundation of his support and he has no money to replace wild-eyed college students with a real political machine.

Unpresidential Behavior
Some Sanders supporters have the tact and dignity of a Trump supporter. There are intelligent and respectful supporters in the Sanders camp, but the thugs are attracting the spotlight. The antics of the Sanders supporters at the Nevada Democratic State Convention, and their social media behavior following the convention, required Sanders to stand up and disavow his campaign from the thugs. He didn’t. 

In his response statement to the bad behavior of his supporters, he implied that he is not, and never was a Democrat. He has allowed himself to be deluded that real Democrats will suddenly become mindless Bernie Zombies, disavow their party, and select him to lead them into the abyss.

A qualified presidential candidate would have stepped up and made it clear that he or she would rather lose, than condone the behavior of violent and disruptive people. A qualified candidate would honor and respect the will of the people (Clinton won the Nevada’s caucus, not Sanders,) rather than offer a non-apology regarding his supporters who threw chairs, disrupted the meeting, and then called women sexually derogatory names. Sanders is not presidential. It is becoming difficult to distinguish who is less presidential material, Bernie Sanders, or Donald Trump.

Pushing A Bad Position
The hardest part of losing is accepting that you have lost. When almost everyone else knows the inevitability of the outcome, it is too late to back down. Sanders is beyond the point of any hope of winning. He lost on April 19th in New York when he failed to show that he could win a big state with a diverse population. Now, he is looking more and more desperate with each campaign speech. The line between a committed, passionate man, and an impassioned man who should be committed is a nanometer wide. Sanders is over that line.

Currently, Sanders is 264 pledged delegates behind. To win the nomination, Clinton needs 93 more delegates to add to her current combined totals of pledged and superdelegates. There is nothing Sanders can do to prevent Clinton from wrapping up the nomination on June 7th. He can pretend he is accomplishing something by staying in the race, but he is becoming the man who his supporters will pity, rather than admire.

The Road Out
Sanders does have an option out of his dilemma. He could suddenly announce he is dropping out, and throw his passionate support for Hillary Clinton. Some of his supporters would be angry at him, but those are mostly the thugs, who seek to disrupt the National Democratic Convention. By dropping out, he would gain the admiration of Clinton supporters who would celebrate the man who sought to bring the party back together. Then, he and his loyal supporters could continue to campaign on the issues that Clinton and he agree must be addressed.

The result would be the complete destruction of Donald Trump’s campaign before he was nominated in July. It’s not going to happen, but that is the contrast between a loser and a great person.

Sanders To Have Good, Meaningless Days May 10 & 17

09 Monday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Government, Politics, Women

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2016, Bernie Sanders, California, Caucus, Election, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, Oregon, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Presidential race, Primaries, Primary, Southern Democrats, West Virginia

bernie_sanders_jef_AP

Bernie Sanders:  Two laps behind at the finish (Steve Helber/AP)

Tomorrow (May 10) West Virginia holds their Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders will easily win and once again he will beat his breast and say:

…this campaign is about momentum….

What he should be saying:

…I only win in small, meaningless States with mostly rural, white voters…

West Virginia has 37 delegates at stake and Sanders will win about 20 of those delegates. He is, of course, behind by 290 pledged delegates, and a net gain of 3 pledged delegates will not change his loser status. After his loss to Hillary Clinton in Guam on Saturday, he will only gain two delegates.

Sanders will have another big win in Oregon on May 17, but again, his net gain will be 20 delegates or less, and he is almost 290 pledged delegates behind. Clinton only needs to win about 160 more pledged delegates, and with the superdelegates, she will win the nomination. That will happen on June 7, in the California primary, where she is likely to win over 200 delegates in one contest. 

It is like watching a foot race where Sanders is two laps down, and he passes Clinton just before the she crosses the finish line. He can brag about momentum all he wants, but he still is over a lap behind and he will still lose the race.

Confessions of a Closet Wine Snob

09 Monday Feb 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Public Image

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CA, California, Del Dotto, Del Dotto Historic Winery & Cave, Napa, Napa Valley, wine, Wineries, Winery

The wine cave at Del Dotto's Historic Winery

The wine cave at Del Dotto’s Historic Winery

In my defense, I didn’t know I was a wine snob. I thought that wine was a beverage that assaulted your mouth, overwhelmed the taste buds, and left your palate like it had just been mugged. I was happy to drink hard cider or craft beer.

Then my spouse suggested we go to Napa to celebrate our 20th wedding anniversary. Then we visited the Del Dotto Vineyard’s Napa Historic Winery. Then I discovered I was a wine snob._DSC0055

There are some things you need to know about Del Dotto Vineyards. First, they are not trying to make wine for the huddled masses. Sutter Home, Beringer, Robert Mondavi, Inglenook, etc., are the vineyards that have massive quantities of wine and seek to put a glass in everyone’s hand. Del Dotto Vineyards are microscopic compared to the 800 pound gorillas of California wine country. Instead of producing commercial wines, they produce fine art wines.

Del Dotto also does their wine tastings from the barrel for most of the tour. They do have wine that reached its prime bottling date and can be purchased the same day; however, a guest should note that they are probably not going walk away with wine in hand. If you wish to purchase the wine from any barrel, it will be shipped to you when the wine is bottled. The wine we tasted was anywhere from two weeks to three months from being corked.

Del Dotto's sculpture at the entrance to the wine cave

Del Dotto’s sculpture at the entrance to the wine cave

Finally, Del Dotto has two wineries. The one in Napa has the wine caves that were carved out in the 1800’s. We did not visit the other winery in St. Helena, but it offers both barrel tasting in a wine cave and bar tasting in the winery.

Our tour included wine aged in two different barrels. So what?

It was that exact same wine, or blend of wines, but they were aging one in a barrel made of French charred wood, and the same wine aged in American charred wood. I enjoyed the wine from all the barrels I tasted, but I preferred the French wood barrels over the American wood barrels. It is a great lesson in how the barrel influences the taste of the wine.

What I also discovered is that wine doesn’t have to make you feel like your mouth was taken down the alley and violated. The wines we tasted were full of flavor, but didn’t rampage through the mouth, nor feel like an oak moth just visited your tongue and left a deposit.

Later we visited another, well known winery, and they paraded out their best wines that were as expensive as the ones we tasted at Del Dotto’s. All of them reminded me of why I don’t drink wine.

I am not a wine expert. Nor do I have enough experience with the Napa area wineries to rank Del Dotto Vineyards with the cluster of wine tasting options in the region. What I do know is that their is a difference in the quality of wine and price is not always a good measure of quality.

At least I now know that I’m a wine snob and I know of at least one place I can find great wine. 

9 Most Violent States In the U.S. of the Past Decade

04 Friday Nov 2011

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Crime, Government, Travel

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Alaska, California, Colorado, Delaware, FBI, Florida, Hawai'i, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, South Carolina, Statistics, Tennessee, Uniform Crime Reports, Violent Crime

USA PDT [Twitter: ] [Facebook] [LinkedIn] [Skype: 775.624.5679]

Paul Kiser

South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, New Mexico, Maryland, Nevada, Louisiana, Delaware, and Alaska are America’s most violent States¹ during the last ten years according to FBI statistics². Violent crime is on the decline in most States; however, these nine have averaged over 600 violent crimes per every 100,000 in population in the last decade. There is an 85 point gap between the tenth highest State (Illinois) and ninth ranked Alaska, which is a significant separation considering that there is only a 116 point spread among the top nine (see TABLE 2.0.)

Graph 1.0 - The 10 Most Violent States of the Past 10 Years and other example States

The good news is that five of the of the top nine States have made major progress in decreasing violent crime during the last ten years. Florida dropped almost 255 points from its 2001 rate to its 2010 rate. Maryland and New Mexico dropped 235 and 192 points respectively. South Carolina and Louisiana both dropped over 100 points during the decade.

Four States still had rates in 2010 that were over 600 violent crimes per 100,000. Two of those States (Delaware and Tennessee) have made little progress over the decade and the other two (Nevada and Alaska) have lost ground from where they were in 2001.

Table 2.0 - 10 Year Violent Crime Averages (per 100,000 pop.)

Nevada began the decade with a violent crime rate below California’s, but the rate jumped in 2006, peaked in 2007, and has slowly declined. Despite the decline, the significant drop of other high ranked States has placed Nevada as the most violent State for the last two years.

Graph 1.0 shows the average violent crime rates over the last ten years for the eleven highest ranking States, plus five other States that are representative of borderline, middle, and low ranking States. Two of the eleven highest ranking (Illinois and California) were ranking relatively high in 2001, but dropped rapidly during the first three years of the decade and ended up with violent crime rates that were just over the United States average.

NOTES

¹ The District of Columbia was excluded from this report as it is not a State and is more representative of an urban area.

²The violent crime statistics are from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, Table 4, years 2001-2010. The information can be found at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr.

This article first published as
Nine Most Violent States of the Past Decade
on Technorati.com

America’s Hostile Takeover of Mexico

12 Wednesday May 2010

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, History, Lessons of Life, Random, Rotary, US History

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Tags

Alta California, Arizona, Blogs, California, Colorado, Hispanic, Illegal Immigrants, Immigration, Mexican Cession, Mexican Immigrants, Mexican-American War, Mexico, Nevada, New Mexico, Nuevo Mexico, Texas, US/Mexican Border, Utah

by Paul Kiser
USA PDT  [Twitter: ] [Facebook] [LinkedIn] [Skype:kiserrotary or 775.624.5679]

Paul Kiser

Arizona recently passed a law directed at people of Mexican descent in an effort to rid the State of ‘non-Americans’. For many Americans this topic is centered on claims of how ‘illegal’ immigrants are responsible for stealing jobs, increasing crime, and threatening to destroy almost every aspect ‘American’ life. If you want to find the person who has a raw nerve about the issue of Mexican immigrants (legal or illegal) one only has to say, “Press one for English” and that person will launch into a tirade about illegal immigrants and how they have destroyed ‘our’ country.

It is easy to forget that less than 165 years ago the United States of America “obtained” 55% of Mexico’s territory at gunpoint. The Mexican-American War was not a war as much as it was a mugging.  It is now recognized that most of the rationale for the declaration of war by the United States on Mexico had little to do with defending US citizens or property and a lot to do with our designs on seizing northern Mexico.  We had offered to buy much of the land prior to the war and Mexico rejected it, but after the war we paid fifty cents on the dollar.

Mexico 1847

There is a reason why the northern borders of California, Nevada, and Utah fall on the same latitude of 42 degrees North.  It is because that was the northern border of Mexico after they won independence from Spain.  Until 1847 the sovereign country of Mexico owned the land that is currently claimed by the States of California, Nevada, Utah, southwestern Wyoming, western and southern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, the pan handle of Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. Before the US takeover, northern Mexico consisted of Alta California, Nuevo Mexico, and Tejas. Many of the names of the geographic features, such as the Colorado River, retain the Mexican name still today.

How We Took Northern Mexico
After Mexico won its independence from Spain it allowed settlers to immigrate into their country, providing they agreed to become Catholics and abide by Mexican law and policies. In what is now Texas, the Americans moved into Mexico and then objected to the laws that outlawed slavery, restrictions on what crops could be grown, and becoming Catholics. Eventually the Americans declared their independence from Mexico in 1836 and a minor war ensued.

Mexico had few resources with which to fight the white illegal immigrants and restore Mexican law. After a few minor defeats the Mexican government stopped sending their army to battle with the trespassers; however, they never relinquished the land to the Texans.  The white illegal immigrants then claimed to be an independent country known as the Republic of Texas. Knowing that Mexico would eventually gather enough resources to reclaim the land, the immigrants then petitioned the United States for statehood and protection of the US Army. In 1845 the United States accepted Texas’ petition to become a State and sent troops to secure the territory.

US States that occupy Mexican land (in white...ironically)

Mexico objected to the occupation of Texas or ‘Tejas’ with U.S. troops and in 1846 attacked Fort Texas. In response the U.S. Congress, under a doctrine of ‘Manifest Destiny’ (i.e.; the United States was destined to control the land from the Pacific to the Atlantic) declared war on Mexico with the intent of not only securing the Texas territory, but California as well. Meeting little resistance the United States occupied northern Mexico, including California by January of 1847 and by September had captured Mexico City.

The United States then dictated the terms of Mexico’s surrender with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo. The treaty forced Mexico to ‘sell’ most it’s country to the United States for $15 million, half of what had been offered before the war.

As we consider the issue of immigration ‘reform’, it would be helpful to remember that it was the United States that aggressively took the land from Mexico in the first place and that ‘Manifest Destiny’ was a disguise for the conquest of northern Mexico.

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