Tomorrow night the United States of America may be in for a shock. Donald Trump is going to lose, but the question is by how much. I think the loss will be surprising. I am not a statistician, nor do I have access to polling data, but there is a reality that polls don’t take into account for in today’s world. Intelligent people don’t like to respond to polls.
Phone calls at home are annoying to everyone, but decades of abuse by telemarketing companies and caller ID technology have made answering the phone without knowing who is calling a vestige of the past. Polls rely on talking to people on the phone, and when people don’t answer, polls don’t work.
This impacts this election year because there is a bias in those who support Donald Trump and those who support Hillary Clinton. Just look at interviews of Trump supporters. These people can’t shut up. They have no ability to filter themselves, and they are desperate to tell people how much they don’t know. Trump supporters are begging for attention, and when someone calls them to ask them their opinion, they leap at the opportunity.
Clinton supporters are not as eager to make a spectacle of themselves. You don’t see Clinton supporters trying to be seen by the news media, and it would be logical that they don’t want to answer annoying, twenty-minute phone calls that ask them personal questions.
In addition, many conservative campaigns are putting out manipulative polls that force people into answering the questions in their favor, so they can appear to be leading. Intelligent people can recognize this, while Trump supporters fall for it.
I predict that Trump will lose by twenty points or more.
Since the Civil War, the United States of America has not faced a bigger threat to the sovereignty of our nation, as we do today.
Donald Trump has been 1) endorsed by the former KGB agent and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, 2) Trump and his campaign has been link to possible ties to Russian interests, and, 3) Russia is apparently on a mission to hack into Trump’s opponents emails and released information intended to embarrass their campaigns. To add to the disgrace, Donald Trump has openly encouraged the subversion of Russia in our political system.
For the first time, our country faces the real possibility of an attempt to subvert our political system using both treasonous acts of a citizen or citizens of the United States, and the support of a former foreign enemy.
Vladimir Putin has effectively been the leader of Russia for almost seventeen years. To do this he has had to appoint a successor as President, who, in turn, appointed Putin as Prime Minister, in order to subvert the laws in Russia regarding the tenure as President. Now, as President again, he continues to rule over Russia as a Czar of Power, politically, economically, and militarily.
He is unquestionably in complete control of all aspects of Russian attempts to subvert foreign countries through contracts, contributions, and espionage support for candidates that favor Russia. In France, Greece, and Italy, Russian money and influence have been used to boost the political and monetary fortunes of key candidates.
Donald Trump has been a gushing supporter of Russian interests for decades. Trump’s close ties to Russia should have made citizens of the United States question his loyalty to our country, but it didn’t because we have a large population of people who hate our country, hate our government, and eagerly support the downfall of the United States in order to replace it with a white-male dominated, Confederate States of America.
The oath to our country states that our citizens will support and defend our country’s Constitution and laws, “against all enemies, foreign and domestic.” It is time to recognize that these are not just words, but a call to action.
Trump has even gone so far as to encourage an insurrection against the legal government of our country if he is not elected President. Based on his words and actions, and the words and actions of Vladimir Putin, isn’t time to stop pretending we don’t know what is going on?
“He loves Trump because he’s an outsider, not a politician.”
“…Sanders – at least he is an outsider who understands that the government and the economy are broken.”
A 55 year-old male quoted in The Gaurdian
Post hoc ergo Proctor hoc is latin and it means that just because one thing follows another, doesn’t mean one thing causes another.
The logic of Trump and Sanders supporters is as follows:
- Our Government is broken.
- Our Government has been broken by politicians.
- People who are not politicians are outsiders.
- Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are not politicians.
- Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are outsiders.
- Outsiders will fix our government.
All six of these statements have to be true for their logic to be valid, but Trump and Sanders supporters seem to believe that by stating statement number five (Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are outsiders) that six is automatically true.
Post hoc ergo proctor hoc.
Statement #1 – Our Government is broken
That is a broad statement that is often linked to conservative’s effort to stonewall any government action that doesn’t conform to their failed ideas. A careful review of our government and in our country will show that almost all problems in government have had a root in conservative ideology. The past thirty years have been a parade of bad decisions based on conservative concepts that they now refuse to allow to be changed. Despite that, the United States of America is still considered to be the place that most people would want to come to live and raise a family. That doesn’t really support the idea that our government is broken.
Statement #2 – Our government has been broken by politicians
Here again, it is conservative ideology that is the root of most problems that can be identified in our government. A lack of good government oversight, corrupt private businesses committing fraud in their dealing with the government, and undercutting the vital revenue needed for good government are all evidence that the broad brush blaming all politicians doesn’t adequately explain the cause of the problems in our government.
Statement #3 – People who are not politicians are outsiders
All colleges have a political science department, but that doesn’t mean only those with a degree in political science become politicians. Nor does the word, ‘politician’ specifically apply to someone who is elected to a political office. Anyone who attempts to shape social policy is a politician. The term ‘politician’ is often used to mean, “those bad guys,” but that is too general of a term to apply to everyone involved in politics. Our country was built by politicians, and many of them served in that role for decades. Electing an ‘outsider’ rather than a politician is like cutting down an entire orchard, that you planted, because one tree had sour fruit.
Statement #4 – Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are not politicians
Donald Trump has put himself into consideration for running for President in 1988, 2000, 2004, 2012, and for New York Governor in 2006 and 2014. He has been trying to get into politics for almost three decades. He is a politician, …and he’s really bad at it.
Bernie Sanders has been in political office since 1981. He is a career politician. He has always stood as an Independent, but he is definitely a politician.
Statement #5 – Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are outsiders
And Lance Armstrong is an ethical, honest person.
Statement #6 – Outsiders will fix our government
The history of our country indicates that those with the least political experience are the least likely to accomplish anything positive. Many of the people who are preventing any effective action in Congress, are novice lawmakers who were voted in on the belief they were outsiders.
Representative Paul Ryan is considered to be a maverick and an outsider by many. His accomplishments in Congress since 1999 are to have a Post Office in his District renamed, and to have an excise tax on arrow shafts lowered.
Trump and Sanders supporters have one thing in common. They have no idea what they are doing, nor why they are doing it.
The Republican party can’t help themselves. They are born to do the wrong thing.
The United States of America was established on the principle that everyone is equal. Yes, there were
some many of our founders who didn’t see African Americans as equals, nor were women seen as equals, but they probably also didn’t believe that the Earth orbited the Sun.
Over time we learned that all humans are truly equal. Over time we adopted a system of government that was committed to protecting the rights of ALL people. Over time we became the greatest country in the history of the world not only because of the principles that were the framework of our country, but because we took that framework and made it greater than the people who wrote it.
But there are always those who want to tear it all down under the belief that it is not ‘our’ country, but ‘my’ country. Those people who are too stupid to be let out in public, but want a gun in their purse when they our out among our citizens just in case they see someone they want to kill.
Conservatives have a history of tearing down great things. Guided by the concept that “we can’t,” conservatives have constantly battled for less for everyone else and more for them.
After fifty attempts the Cliven Bundy’s of Congress have finally passed a repeal of Obamacare. Nope, they don’t have a plan ‘B’, except they want American healthcare run by the greedy, not by compassionate. Republicans have proven again why they are the party of anti-Americans. They hate equality. They hate being told to be ethical. They hate paying for the privilege of being citizen of the United States of America.
It’s time we repeal Republicans and put our country back into the hands of the intelligent, the compassionate, and the true patriots.
Why is Donald Trump running for President? This American version of Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein is making no attempt to appeal to intelligent voters, and acts as if he is running for President of the Student Council by being anti-school.
The answer is that he is probably not running for President; however, Trump is vital to the hopes of the Grand Ole Party (GOP,) that consists of a vocal white, ultra-religious, anti-American group, and a smaller group of intelligent traditional conservatives.
In the Spring of 2015, it was chaos in the Republican party. Every day another new candidate was announcing his or her run for the White House. Each of them desperately sought the favor of the anti-American faction that would give them the nomination. As each candidate carved out smaller and smaller slices of their party it began to look hopeless for Republicans. None of them could win the Presidency because winning anti-American support would be poison to them in November 2016. At the same time, the GOP candidates were dividing up the party, making reconciliation with a legitimate prospect almost impossible.
Enter Donald Trump. Trump’s role in the party is to be the Pied Piper. He is to gather up all the misfits of the anti-American movement in the GOP and gain their trust. He can be as outrageous as he wants because it will only serve to help him in his role of winning the loyalty of those who love to hate America.
As he solidifies the anti-American vote he will force other GOP candidates out of the race, and Jeb Bush will continue to chart out a more moderate course that will give him the best chance of winning a majority in the general election. Next summer Donald Trump and Jeb Bush will likely be the only two viable GOP nominees. It is at this point Trump will ask his supporters to “fall on their swords” for the party. He will explain that if they don’t vote for Jeb Bush, the Democrats will win…again.
Trump As Vice President?
A fair question is whether Trump will be the Vice President candidate for the Republicans. That deal may already have been brokered with the Bush campaign, or it may still be a decision yet to be made. The problem is that Trump may bring too much baggage to the ticket. Attempts to use the Vice President as material to sew together a conservative coalition has failed in past elections (Sarah Palin in 2008, and Paul Ryan in 2012) as each made the Presidential candidate less appealing to moderates and intelligent voters.
Regardless, Trump’s ego is overflowing with the attention he is currently receiving from supporters and detractors. It is likely that he would see political office beneath him, but he loves being the center of attention. This is a win-win opportunity for him.
Republicans have a major problem. They are not the majority in the United States. They have managed to win congressional elections, and lesser political offices by convincing true conservatives and anti-Americans that they have the same goals. That strategy has worked because the anti-Americans originally were silent partners in the alliance and were easily led by true conservatives.
The problem is that the anti-Americans have managed use the Republican party to legitimize their 150 year effort to take over America and remake it in their image. That effort started when the white Southern Democrats were determined to make slavery the law of the new territories and they declared that if Abraham Lincoln (a Republican, ironically) were elected as President they would abandon the United States of America. The white, male, landowners of the South said they would disgrace our flag, country and Constitution by creating a new country where all men would not be equal all because their candidate lost the election.
What many Americans do not know is that the Confederacy lied. They were not content with stealing a handful of states and declaring themselves as a new country. Had that been their goal the Civil War would not have occurred. Lincoln was ready to let the six states abandon our country and be done with them.
However, after seceding, the Confederate States of America began attacking our country and sought to destroy the United States of America. Their intent was clearly to conquer us and put our citizens under their autocratic rule.
To defend our country, President Lincoln moved troops in to protect the capital but they were attacked in Baltimore by anti-Americans who attempted to disrupt the our military by operating inside our country. The result forced us into the Civil War.
The Confederate States of America incorrectly assumed that we would surrender rather than fight. That miscalculation not only caused them to lose the war, but also left them without a country. After the war the white, anti-Americans continued to behave as if they were not subjects to the United States of America, nor did they recognize African-Americans as equal despite laws that demand it.
One hundred years after the Civil War the anti-Americans were confronted by citizens who would no longer tolerate their lack respect to our Constitution and the rule of law. They continued to defy and disgrace our country and we were once again required to send troops into the South to force their compliance.
Today they still maintain their defiance against America and our Constitution. They retain loyalty to the defeated Confederate flag, and seek to end American government. For the most part, our country has tolerated the anti-Americans and allowed them to use their right of free speech to disrespect our government and our country.
But over the last four decades Republicans, defeated by scandals and failed leadership, have sought to lure the vote of anti-Americans by promoting white supremacist ideals. Among the concepts promoted by Republicans have been a hate for minorities, claiming a religious doctrine that enshrines white males as dominant, pushing for absolute gun ownership that puts military weapons in private hands, interpreting the Constitution to use militias as a means to overthrow America, and promoting an ultra-patriotism that ironically claims that people who seek to overthrow America are patriotic. By using these tactics the Republicans have been successful in capturing the loyalty of the anti-Americans and that has kept the party viable.
Unfortunately, true conservatives have lost control of the Republican party to the anti-Americans. Now, a candidate has to practically pledge allegiance to the Confederate flag to be a viable candidate. Republican candidates must also pledge to bankrupt the government of the United States through no-taxes promises.
The result has created chaos in the Republican party. Like a shark feeding frenzy, anti-American candidates are leaping into the political arena sensing that this is their moment to be the Jefferson Davis of the 21st century.
Yet, America is still not ready to be overthrown. The last two Presidential elections have demonstrated that loyal American still have a majority, Now the Republican party is faced with two opposing facts. A true conservative cannot win the nomination as the Republican Presidential candidate, and an anti-American candidate cannot win the election. Republicans have to find a way to thin the frenzy, eliminate the anti-American candidates, and find someone who can appeal to moderate voters, conservatives, and anti-Americans.
Next: The Trump Card
This week my son’s Elementary school is engaged in a venture into the world of Harry Potter. The teachers of 3rd, 4th, and 5th grades have divided the students into the four Houses of Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry. This is an opportunity to look back on the single person who created a series of fictional children’s books that revitalized reading for millions of people of all ages.
Any story of great personal success is characterized by being the correct person, in the correct place, at the correct time. That is a requirement. The story of J. K. Rowling is more compelling for why she was the correct person.
Her birth name is Joanne Rowling and she uses “Jo” in casual environments. She has no given middle name but was asked by her publisher to disguise her name so that young boys would not know that Harry Potter was written by a woman. Since she had no middle name she used her grandmother’s name, ‘Kathleen,’ and thus became, “J. K. Rowling (her last name is pronounced, ‘rolling.’)
Rowling accomplished the unthinkable. At a time when reading books was declining and the Internet was blossoming, the idea that one person could ignite a renaissance of book reading was considered absurd. Rowling’s first publisher told her to get a day job because writing children’s books would never provide enough income.
Like William Shakespeare, there is no significant indicator in Rowling’s pre-Potter life of her eventual rise to the top of the literary world. Still, there are earlier experiences that probably contributed to her success. Among them are the following:
- Her parents met at King’s Cross Station in London, which became the fictional departure point for the fictional train station departure point to Hogwarts. [Potter influences]
- As a child she was known to write out a story and read it to her sister, Dianne. [Early fiction writing]
- Her mother, Anne, was a science technician and also taught science at the Secondary school that Rowling attended. [Priority of education]
- She speaks English, French and studied German in Secondary school. [Broad-based education]
- She read and is an admirer of Jessica Mitford, a British-turned-American journalist, author, and political activist. [Ethics, writing, and honor]
- She has a Bachelor’s of Arts degree in French and the Classics from the University of Exeter. [Writing and knowledge]
- She studied a year in Paris. [Broad-based education]
- She taught English in Portugal [Life experience]
- Her mother had multiple sclerosis (MS) and died while she was writing her first Harry Potter book. [Life experience]
- Rowling suffered from depression triggered by several life events (Unemployed, her mother’s death, her divorce, etc.) [Life experience]
The idea for Harry Potter apparently came in 1990, during a four-hour train delay to London. She began writing as soon as she reached home and among the first chapters written was the final chapter of the last book. The first book was not finished until 1995. It was submitted and rejected by twelve publishers before it was finally accepted by Bloomsbury Publishing in England the follow year.
She went from living off of State benefits to a millionaire in five years. Since then, she has devoted a large portion of her fortune to philanthropic causes.
Though remarkable, Rowling’s financial success is not as significant as what she did for slowing the decline of children reading for fun during the period her books were published (1996-2007.) According to a study by Common Sense Media, 9-year-olds reading for fun at least one to two per week dropped only one percent from 1984 to 2004; however, by 2012 that dropped by another four percent (76% in 2012.) For 13-year-olds the decline in reading for fun from 1984 to 2004, was six percent, but that decline nearly doubled five years after the last Harry Potter book was published (down an additional eleven percent in 2012 to 53%.)
No one, including possibly Rowling, herself, could have expected anyone to capture a worldwide audience, as did the Harry Potter series. She brought new readers into the literary market that had no interest in reading. Her unexpected achievement is a reminder that what is possible extends beyond the impossible.
John Boehner (R-Ohio) was elected with less than 127,000 votes last November. On Wednesday, the Speaker of the House decided that was enough to make him President and commit a foreign policy mistake that will be construed by many Arabs as an act of war.
Speaker Boehner is desperate and he is not very capable. He also hates President Barack Obama, (the guy who won his election with almost 66 million votes and who is in charge of our foreign policy.) He would do almost anything to attack the leader of our country, even if it put American lives at risk.
Speaker Boehner is also owned by big money contributors and in this case, Sheldon Adelson, Nevada’s Queen of the Desert, owns John Boehner. Adelson is the CEO of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation. He is the master of The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino, Palazzo hotel, and the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States of America. He also is the lord of the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. Adelson makes a lot of money off people who come to his properties under belief that they are going to win money.
Sheldon Adelson doesn’t pay income taxes in Nevada. He, nor his con-businesses pays corporate taxes in Nevada, nor do they pay capital gains taxes. In fact, the main source of taxes from his casinos are the ‘winners’ who must pay a share of their take to the state, so Adelson contributes almost nothing for the privilege of emptying people’s wallets in Nevada.
So what does Adelson do with his money? He buys political power, mostly for Israeli and Jewish interests. Adelson’s money is banked in conservative measures all over the world. If it is anti-Arab and good for conservatives, Adelson’s money will be close by.
Considering the power that Sheldon Adelson has over Speaker John Boehner, it is easy to understand why the Congressman from Ohio invited Benjamin Netanyahu, possibly the most hated man in the Arab world, to speak to Congress. Speaker Boehner’s invitation would be similar to inviting the leader of the Klu Klux Klan to Congress in order to spite African-Americans.
Boehner’s insult to the Arab world is under the guise of learning about the ‘threat’ of Iran’s nuclear program. This is a lie. There are many true experts that could address the reality of an Iran threat, but those experts are not going to say what conservatives want to hear.
The March 3rd invitation (moved back from February 11) for Netanyahu is also timed to put the leader of Jewish military oppression against Arabs in the spotlight prior to the Israeli elections. A direct link between Adelson and Netanyahu’s invitation would be difficult to prove, but you can smell Adelson’s money all over Boehner’s act.
No one can know if Boehner’s insult to Arabs will result in an American body count, but the Speaker of the House has certainly put Americans in danger in order to make a payment on his debt to Adelson.
It would be an appropriate response to Boehner’s stupidity if all the Democrats held a conference on the same day regarding the reality of Iran’s threat with real experts who don’t have a political election in the balance.
Recently I was freed of my Apple conflict. Thanks to Apple’s security policy regarding my iTunes account, I no longer use it for buying music.
Like most people I have always used a PC. Apple computers were interesting, but I was always leery of the Apple agenda. I did have iTunes and an iPod and purchased songs through iTunes for most of my musical entertainment.
A few years ago I was given a Kindle Fire for Christmas and I began buying some music from Amazon, but then I had a split music library. One with iTunes. One with Amazon. Fortunately, I quickly discovered that my Kindle Fire couldn’t handle storing my songs, apps, and movies in the Kindle, so that ended my brief affair with Amazon music.
Then last year I was introduced to Google Play. I found that with their service I could play all the songs from my computer on my Android phone. Still, a question remained about the iTunes service I’ve used since I transcended from CD’s to digital.
In this past year, Apple made the decision for me. Apple has created a password security process that is complex and leads the customer to being locked out of his or her iTunes library with no recourse but to start a new iTunes account.
Here’s the way the scam works. During a purchase of an iTunes product, Apple forces the customer into a convoluted process that requires her or him to change their iTunes password and answer a limited choice of possible questions about the customer’s childhood memories. For several months after the customer has been forced to go through the new password procedure Apple allows him or her to make purchases from iTunes without giving the new password. The customer has no cause to recall the password until sufficient time has passed to make the customer forget the new password
However, after six months or so, Apple will spring the trap and make the customer give the complicated password before a purchase. Upon failing to give the correct password, Apple then requires the customer answer the questions about their childhood memories, which are so lame that most people won’t remember the answers.
So, then you contact Apple and get help, right?
Contacting Apple’s “Support” is where you find out how deep the password rabbit hole goes. They will ask for your password. You already tried that and they will, surprise, surprise, also find you don’t know it. They will ask for the answers to the childhood questions. You still don’t know the answers. After that they will ask you for the original credit card number with which you set up your account iTunes account. When you can’t produce that number, they will ask for the serial number of the first Apple product you owned. In my case, this is the 1st generation iPod that was recalled several years ago.
That’s it. Because you can’t answer any of their ridiculous questions they will tell you they can’t do anything more for you. You must set up a new iTunes account and the past digital downloads must be repurchased.
So now I must thank Apple. I no longer have a conflict with my digital music libraries. Google Play is the best choice and I won’t be purchasing anything from iTunes.
I suppose that someone will file a class action lawsuit with Apple in a few years. Apple emails will probably reveal their strategy to make customers repurchase their digital libraries and a settlement of a few dollars per customer will be made while the attorneys make millions of dollars.
In the meantime, I will listen to ALL my songs I purchased through Google Play.