Tag Archives: Disaster

Housing Prices Edge Closer to Catastrophe

04 Sunday Feb 2018

Posted by in About Reno, Business, Crisis Management, Customer Service, Economy, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Housing, Real Estate, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States

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For the last twenty years, the United States has been building a tower of paper wealth. Over time the paper value of homes on the market has far outpaced inflation and wage growth. The current realty market has little connection to reality and we are on the brink of a housing catastrophe.

Price With No Reality Check

The real estate market is inherently flawed. Some claim that it is a perfect example of supply and demand, but that is not accurate. Real estate is the perfect example of a capitalistic market where common sense and ethics are overlooked because greed has blinded the people involved.

Prices exceed the bubble of 2007

Home Prices Heading Toward a Cliff

Housing prices are not governed by a person’s (or family’s) ability to pay. They are governed by a real estate professional who has a financial interest in driving the price up, and an owner that wants as much money as possible. The buyer taking all the risk and if the housing prices don’t continue upward, they lose.

So why would anyone buy a house when prices are already too high?

The ‘Investment’ Loophole

Historically, the one house, one owner or owner-occupied concept kept a check on housing prices. If the buyer couldn’t pay the mortgage, he or she would lose their home. That was a big risk. Today’s investment buyer risks little if anything if they can’t pay a second home mortgage. She or he may lose the home if the investment fails but is a loss of potential future revenue and not a personal crisis.

Investment housing creates artificial shortages because one owner can own multiple homes, removing those from the overall inventory. The lower the supply, the higher the price. In 2016, the number of owner-occupied homes in the United States was 63.6%. California’s owner-occupied rate is 55.3% and at $524,000, its median home price is over double compared to $206,300 for the United States.

Median home price in four cities compared to U.S. average

Another 2007?

The current median price for a home in the United States is higher than it was during the housing bubble in 2007. Any shock to the economy would erase the paper home value and flood the market with another round of investment homes being dumped on the market.

It is a crisis that is easy to anticipate, but no one does. When the next recession hits the United States will once again suffer through a massive drop in housing prices as multi-house owners dump their investment homes and walk away.

[COUNT TO 500: 493rd Article in PAULx]

The Day Business Killed The NASA Space Program

28 Sunday Jan 2018

Posted by in Business, Government, History, NASA, Politicians, Politics, Public Image, Public Relations, Science, Space, Technology, US History, US Space Program

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Thirty-two years ago today, the first in-flight deaths of NASA astronauts tragically occurred after a launch that wasn’t supposed to happen. Some have proposed that the accident was a result of NASA and their contractors being pressured for public relations reasons. The truth is that their deaths were caused by trying to make space a business venture.

Seven astronauts killed in the Challenger accident

STS-51-L crew: (front row) Michael J. Smith, Dick Scobee, Ronald McNair; (back row) Ellison Onizuka, Christa McAuliffe, Gregory Jarvis, Judith Resnik.

 Death By Impact

On 28 January 1986, seven astronauts in the Space Shuttle Challenger (STS-51-L) died as their crew compartment slammed into the Atlantic Ocean after falling 12 miles in two and a half minutes. They were not killed in the breakup of the Shuttle, nor did they become unconscious from the depressurization of the crew compartment, as suggested by NASA. Some, if not all astronauts, were aware that they were about to die and knew there was nothing they could do to avoid it.

Trail of Causes

The technical primary cause of the accident was weather-related. The Space Shuttle was not to be launched at temperatures below 4° C (39° F) and had never been launch at temperatures below 12° C (54° F.) A few hours before the launch the temperature had fallen to -8° C (18° F.)

The technical fault caused by the weather were rubber O-rings at each of the joints of the solid rocket boosters (SRB.) The O-rings needed to be warm enough to expand to seal the joint to avoid burning gases from blowing out between the sections of the solid rocket booster. The concern was that the power of the burning fuel would rupture the joint at launch and cause an uncontrolled blast of hot gases to escape causing an explosion on the launch pad.

Known Problem to NASA

After previous Space Shuttle launches some of the recovered solid rocket boosters had shown ‘blow-by’ of the O-rings. That meant that the O-rings had not completely sealed the SRB joint and could have potentially compromised the safety of the crew had the blow-by breached to the exterior of the joint.

Engineers at Morton Thiokol, the Utah contractor that designed and built the solid rocket booster, had felt that NASA was ignoring their concerns about the issues regarding the SRB joints. In an emergency teleconference meeting held the night before the launch, the engineers made it clear that the temperatures were unacceptable.

NASA decision-makers did not like the ‘no-launch’ answer and suggested that if they didn’t launch the next day, the company would be blamed for the delay. Morton Thiokol managers caved into NASA and overruled their own engineers. They gave a go for launch. Just prior to the reversal of the recommendation the general manager of Morton Thiokol said to the Vice President of Engineering, “…take off your engineering hat and put on your management hat…” It was the moment that sealed the fate of the seven Challenger astronauts.

Run NASA Like a Business

Previous space projects at NASA had been focused on spaceflight. The goal of NASA and its contractors were to safely put humans in space.

That changed after we reached the Moon. We had done the impossible and now space was less interesting and too expensive. The deflation of post-Moon public support forced NASA to find a justifiable reason to move forward. The decision was that NASA must end the exploration of space and build the ‘business’ of space. The Space Shuttle was intended to make the United States leaders in space commerce.

The Space Shuttle was built to be a reusable, frequent-launch spacecraft that would make traditional, single-use rockets too expensive and unreliable for commercial customers to use. The idea of running NASA like a business became the core value of the organization.

Delays, Delays, Delays

By January of 1986, NASA far behind its business goals. It was not launching the Shuttle frequently enough, nor was the reusability function creating the desired savings. STS-51-L was a critical point in making NASA run like a business. Delays in the launch of previous Shuttle (STS-61-C) had pushed back the STS-51-L flight twice. The launch had been pushed back four more times because of weather and equipment malfunctions.

On the Business Stage

Business is like theatre. It doesn’t matter what is going on backstage because the only thing that counts is what the audience can see. Backstage, NASA was in crisis, but if they could launch STS-51-L, they could maintain the perception that they had everything under control.

There were several public image opportunities if the launch occurred on the 28th that would be lost if it was delayed again. For Challenger and NASA, the teleconference on January 27th had only one possible business outcome. It must be launched. The engineers at Morton Thiokol didn’t know that they were up against a business mentality when they met on that night. Nor did the managers at Morton Thiokol or NASA know that they were about to kill seven astronauts. To them, it was just business-as-usual.

Events in Motion

Once the decision was made to launch events were set in motion.

  1. The cold temperatures caused the O-rings to become rigid. After the SRB’s were ignited a puff of hot gases blew through the O-rings at a point near the large external fuel tank.
  2. The joint temporarily sealed itself off from the debris of the exhaust of the burning fuel.
  3. As the Shuttle rose after launch it hit the worst wind shear ever experienced by a Shuttle and the debris sealing the O-ring broke free allowing the hot gases to burn through the joint.
  4. The flame from the joint acted as a blowtorch cutting into the external fuel tank and finally igniting the hydrogen fuel.
  5. The resulting hydrogen fuel explosion ripped the External Tank into pieces, pushing the Shuttle away.
  6. The Shuttle rolled out of its nose-forward position and was blown apart by aerodynamic forces.
  7. The crew compartment broke free of the Shuttle and continued to ascend until it lost momentum and began to fall down toward the ocean. It did not suddenly depressurize, but likely, depressurized slowly. The astronauts were jolted by the breakup, but not severely injured.
  8. At least three of the astronauts turned on personal oxygen after as the crew compartment fell. One did not, and the equipment for the other three astronauts was not found.
  9. The crew compartment fell and eventually hit the ocean, killing the seven astronauts on contact.
  10. NASA created a story that the astronauts were killed instantly, even after they knew that the events during the accident did not support the story. 

End of the NASA Manned Space Program

The Space Shuttle didn’t fly again for almost three years. It would resume flight for an additional 13 years, but it failed to meet the objectives of making space a business venture. The accident exposed the inherent issues of running a space program like a business and political pressure undermined the concept of a manned space program.

In 2011, NASA ended the United States manned space program with the last launch of the Space Shuttle. Since the last Shuttle launch, NASA has worked hard at pretending to have a manned space program by paying Russia to send U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station and producing videos of the development of the next generation of manned spacecraft. The reality is that NASA no longer can put a human in space, at won’t at any time in the near future.

Below is Vintage Space’s take on the cause of the Challenger disaster.

Epilogue of Planet Epsilon (science fiction)

24 Tuesday Dec 2013

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24 December 2038 – Chōfu, Tokyo, Nippon Unified Aerospace Agency (NUAA)

Orbits of 6 worlds nearest Sol

Orbits of 6 worlds nearest Sol and debris from the Epsilon explosion (Data recovered from alien ship) 

At today’s 9:00 AM press conference we announced the discovery of an alien craft found in orbit around our Sun. The orbital path of the craft was almost thirty degrees off the orbital plane of the solar system and was between Venus and Mercury at perihelion and extended out to near Jupiter’s orbit at aphelion. The long-deceased occupants of the ship were apparently from within our solar system on a planet they called Epsilon.

As mentioned this morning, we are releasing the text of the most significant alien messages or logs that we recovered on a hand device inside the craft. From what we can determine from the ship’s records so far is that Epsilon, located between Mars and Jupiter, exploded about 66 million years ago. The Epsilonian language is apparently the root language of English as the symbols and sounds are almost identical to English.

The aliens were human in body type. Several of the occupants of the ship were found in a compartment that preserved their bodies. We believed these aliens died after their craft was damaged and the crew put them in an area of the ship without heat or air to keep them from decomposing. DNA testing has proven that we are related these aliens, although probably not directly to the occupants of the ship.

According to what we have learned from their records so far, this ship was one of seven that attempted to reach Earth (named Gamma in Epsilonian) from Mars (named Delta in Epsilonian) after Epsilon exploded. Remnants of the planet still exist in what we have come to know as the Asteroid Belt; however, most of the planet was scattered throughout our solar system and some larger fragments impacted on the other planets including Earth. The descendants of the aliens that landed on Earth must have survived for millions of years in small pockets until humans began to become dominant in the past 100,000 years.  This ship was apparently the only one that did not make it to Earth.

Image of Epsilon before it exploded. Recovered from the alien database.

Image of Epsilon before it exploded. Recovered from the alien database.

Below is the original text from the most significant messages we have recovered so far. 

Message 10884.11.75.06.41.12.52 From Epsilon Crew Member
Wee faild. Wee tride, wee tride agane, wee tride more, and wee still faild.

Tu ue hoo reed this, I noe ue kant understand ar sarow. Pleese, here me. Fore ar brothers and sisters mae bee, likelee ar, yore fathers and mothers. If ue kan reed this then it is sertan ue ra, fore yore words kame from ar words.

Wee wer from Epsilon, tha 5th world from Sol, but wee livd in ae kalonee on Delta, tha 4th world. Now bothe worlds ar lost and all hope lies on Gamma, tha 3rd world.

Let mee restart. Epsilon was tha sorse of life in tha Sol sistim. Ar world was bigger than Gamma and Baeta (tha 2nd world,) and much bigger than Dellta. All 4 worlds had firm ground and ae laer of gas, but Baeta, like Alpha (the 1st world) had noe likguid. Gamma, Dellta, and Epsilon had likguid, but Epsilon producd life and evold 1st.

Epsilon was home but wee wantd tu xplore, soe wee lernd tu sore beetwene worlds. Dellta and Gamma had life, but not wise life. Ar peepel desided to kalonee on Dellta 1st.

Wee had livd on Dellta fore almoest 50 orbits and preeparing tu kalonee on Gamma  when disaster struk Epsilon. Ae flash that lit up ar erly morning skie on Dellta then faded. Epsilon was gon. Wee beeleve it was natural. Epsilon had plenteeful unstabil ellamints in tha krust. If those ellamints xtended into tha likguid rok beeloe, thae it koud hav gatherd tu ae kritikal mass and xploded with such forse tu destroy ar home world.

Ae grupe of sieintists had warnd that Epsilon mite….. (text was not recoverable)

Message 10884.11.75.06.41.15.04
Delltas orbit put it in tha Epsilon deebree flung toward Sol. Wee had onelee weeks tu evevakuate Dellta. With Dellta in sertan dume, ar hope was tu sore tu Gamma, but wee had noe kalonee ther. Wee had 7 ships availabel. 6 had peepel and 3 months of supplies eech. 1 ship kaireed ar teknolojee. That ship held ar soring masheens, ar komemunikashun eekwipmint, shelters, and everee thing needed tu restart ar sivilliesaeshun. 6 ships made it tu Gamma. 1 ship, ar ship, did not.

Wee due not noe if thae kan sirvive without….(text was not recoverable)

Volcanoes in the lower left caused by fragments from the break up of Epsilon

Volcanoes in the lower left caused by fragments from the break up of Epsilon

Ar ship was tha last tu leve Dellta. Deebree from r home world hit ar ship. It disstroyd ar injin kontrol. Ar injins flamed until wee had noe fuel. Ar orbit touk us abav tha planit orbits, around Sol, then in an eeliptikal orbit out past Epsilon and back tu Sol. Of ar 16 crew, 7 hav survived 2 orbits, but ther is noe hope. Wee noe longer can reepair our eekwipmint and ar air sistim will fail sune.

Message 10884.11.75.06.04.44.03
Wee hav watchd as ar broekin world has reekd havoke. Tha rimnants of Epsilon tore thru tha Sol sistim and miny larg fragmints inkluding 2 of Epsilons moons ar still in unstaebel orbits that will evinchuelee hit another world or Sol. 4 massiv fragmints hit Dellta kreeating majore fire mountans spewing out likwid rok. It is terning tha world inside out. Tha impakts of tha fragmints pushd Delltas gas in tu spase and chaengd its axis by 25 dagrees. Oever 1000 peepel wer left on Dellta and thae ar all ded.

Far side of the Moon peppered by fragments of Planet Epsilon

Far side of Earth’s Moon peppered by fragments of Planet Epsilon

Gamma survived thanks tu its Mone. A storem of deebree hit tha bak side of the Mone, but 1 larj fragment did hit tha Gamma. It filld tha air with fire and ash and tilt the axis almoset as much as Dellta. Kondishuns fore our peepel mae not bee sirviveabel.

 Zeta was forjunate. It was on tha opposeit of Sol when Epsilon xploded and it has not bin hit by maejor fragmints yet, however, ……(text was not recoverable)

Saturn's rings from the oceans of Epsilon

Saturn’s rings from the oceans of Epsilon

 ….differint fore Eta. Ae larj fragmint and sum fine deebree, posieblee likwid from 1 of Epsilons oeshuns was sent towards Eta. The fragmint tilted Etas axis and tha fine deebree went in tu orbit around Eta. It seems tu bee forming ae ring strukchure around Eta.

Sum of Epsilon was eejektd far out frum Sol kreeating ae cloud of deebree in tha outer sistim. Deebree nere Zeta was absorbed, but sum setteld in orbit ahed and beehind Zeta. What littel is left of Epsilon is spreding out whair ar world usd tu orbit. Fragmints will kontinue tu raen don on tha worlds fore senjurees…..(text was not recoverable) 

Message 10884.11.75.08.18.32.29
…..(text was not recoverable) Wee had kontakt with tha moset of tha ather ships until their power faild. Thae must restart ar race without all tha teknalogee wee karee on r ship. It mae bee hundreds of orbits, mae bee longer beefore thae kan sore aegaen. This message will not bee red until long after wee ar gon.

Challenger STS-51L: What Happened – 12 Hours + 73 Seconds + 207 Seconds

28 Saturday Jan 2012

Posted by in Government, History, Science, Space, US History

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Many experts have discussed what happened in the moments up to and after the breakup of the Challenger Space Shuttle on January 28, 1986. NASA thoroughly investigated the events the led to the loss of the vehicle and the seven astronauts on board. This information was released over the months (and years) following the disaster, but here is a synopsis of what has been learned and discussed.

The four basic parts of the Space Shuttle

What Didn’t Happen

Not An Explosion
The Challenger and the External Tank (ET) did not ‘explode’ in the sense of a violent, pressure wave of energy. The fireball that engulfed the Space Shuttle was triggered when the bottom of the External Tank broke away releasing all the hydrogen fuel. This fuel ignited and gave the ET a sudden acceleration or upward push, which then caused the rupture of the oxygen tank in the upper portion of the External Tank that tore off the top of the ET¹. The result of the escaping fuel from the top of the ET created an oxygen-rich environment around the vehicle. The fuel in the Orbiter for the thrusters also ignited which may have been released when the nose of the Challenger sheared off due to aerodynamic forces.

STS-51L at 59 seconds after launch – black smoke reappears

(¹There is also evidence that the nose of the starboard Solid Rocket Booster swung into the ET and contributed to the rupture at the top of the tank.)

The failure at both the bottom and top of the External Tank ultimately led to its breakup because it no longer had an aerodynamic structure to force the air around it. In the last images of the Space Shuttle before breakup, the entire vehicle is masked by a translucent white and gold curtain of smoke and burning fuel. The fireball that surrounded the Space Shuttle was a combination of all the liquid fuel being released and igniting.

STS-51L at 73 seconds – The both the bottom and top of the ET have ruptured

Similarly, the breakup of the Orbiter was not caused by explosive forces from the fireball. As the ET accelerated and broke apart Challenger began pivot, nose down, so that the upper portion of the Orbiter turned into the oncoming rush of air. Since it was not aerodynamically designed to fly into that position (the Shuttle was traveling at 1,450 mph) the nose portion, including the crew compartment sheared away from the rest of the vehicle. As the crew compartment separated from the rest of the Orbiter, air rushed in to the Payload Bay and other cavities literally blowing Challenger apart from the inside.

Joint Section of SRB and the seal is inspected after STS-51L disaster

Cold Weather and O-ring Failure Not the Entire Cause of Disaster
The joint on the starboard Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) failed and allowed extremely hot gases to be directed at the External Tank; however, the infamous O-rings (a primary and secondary for each joint) and the cold weather were probably NOT the only factors leading to the disaster.

STS-51L liftoff – Black smoke at lower right joint on SRB

Both Solid Rocket Boosters were subjected to subfreezing temperatures overnight (it was only 36°F at launch.) If temperature was the only factor, then other joint breaches should have occurred in the multiple joints of both SRBs. There was only one breach on one SRB and at one point in the 360° circumference around the joints. 

Photographic evidence shows that a breach of the joint occurred as Challenger lifted off, but it seemed to re-seal (probably with soot and debris) as the vehicle cleared the tower. However, Challenger hit the strongest wind shear conditions of any Shuttle in twenty-five missions soon after launch. Whatever was sealing the earlier breach in the O-ring probably broke free as the SRB joints flexed in the wind shear. That started the hot gases to burn an ever-increasing hole through the joint, which was aimed at the strut that attached the External Tank to the Solid Rocket Booster.

Joint design, wind shear, O-rings, weather, and possibly an unknown factor (undetected pre-launch damage or weakness at one point of the joint) all seem to create a set of extraordinary circumstances that doomed Challenger. 

What Happened

T Minus 12:00:00.000 Hours
In the twelve hours before the launch, Launch Pad 39B experienced colder temperatures than had occurred prior to any Shuttle launch. This likely caused the O-rings in the joint of the SRBs to contract slightly.

00:00:00.000 Launch
At launch, possibly due to the cold weather or other causes, the joint was not completely sealed and hot gases burned through one point on a joint on the starboard Solid Rocket Booster. As Challenger lifted off puffs of black smoke appeared near the joint area 3 times per second. 

+00:00:02.733 Joint Re-Seals
The black puffs of smoke are no longer visible. It is believed that debris from the O-rings temporarily re-sealed the joint.

+00:00:19.000 Wind Comment
Pilot Michael Smith says, “Looks like we’ve got a lot of wind here today.”

+00:00:36.990 Shuttle Responds to Wind Shear
Challenger automatically responds to heavy wind shear. This causes stress and flexing of the joints in the SRBs. The belief is that at some point the temporary seal formed soon after launch breaks free and hot gases begin to blow through the gap. The hole in the joint grows as the gases melt the structure around it.

At 59 seconds a flame is clearly escaping from the SRB above the rocket nozzle

+00:00:58.788 Heat Plume 
Cameras record an abnormal plume of flame and smoke coming from the starboard Solid Rocket Booster. The plume grows in size over the next several seconds. The plume is aimed at the strut on the External Tank which connects it to the Solid Rocket Booster.

+00:00:60.004 Pressure Drop in SRB
Computer data shows a pressure drop in the starboard Solid Rocket Booster. While Mission Control and the crew are not fully aware of this, there is no doubt that the leak in the joint is effecting the power output of the Solid Rocket Booster. Had the flame been pointed away from the Shuttle and the External Tank, the Solid Rocket Booster would have eventually caused an abort due to lack of thrust to make orbit.

+00:00:64.660 ET Burn Through
The plume between the Solid Rocket Booster and the External Tank suddenly changes shape. This indicates that the External Tank has burned through and hydrogen fuel is leaking and increasing the flame.

+00:00:66.764 Pressure Drop in ET
Pressure in the External Tank begins to drop indicating a massive leak; however, even if the astronauts had noted the drop in pressure there was no action they could have taken. In seven seconds the entire vehicle will be engulfed in flame and the External Tank and Orbiter will be breaking up.

+00:00:70.000 “Go at throttle up.”
Commander Scobee calmly responds to Mission Controls authorization to increase speed by saying, “Roger, go at throttle up.” While events around the Solid Rocket Booster and External Tank are beginning to impact the vehicles flight path, no one on the ground or in the air has any forewarning of what is about to happen.

+00:00:72.204 Wild Nozzle Movements
At this point the engines on the Solid Rocket Boosters are shifting positions to compensate for flight path variations caused by the cascading failures of the ET and SRB. These movements of the engines on the SRB and then by the Main Engines on the Orbiter become wilder over the next second. The computer is desperately attempting to keep the vehicle on the flight path.

+00:00:73.124 Beginning of the End
Challenger is traveling at almost twice the speed of sound. Seventy-three (73) seconds into the flight the lower strut on the External Tank, which has been the target of the blow torch of hot gases leaking from the SRB, gives way and the lower end of the starboard Solid Rocket Booster flies free. It begins to pivot around the upper support. At about the same time the bottom of the External Tank comes off allowing all the hydrogen to escape and ignite. This causes a rapid acceleration of the External Tank. The upward pressure on the interior of the ET then causes the a rupture at the top of the tank, which then releases the oxygen around the Shuttle. In rapid succession, the External Tank breaks up, the Solid Rocket Boosters completely separate from the vehicle, and the Shuttle is pushed into a pivot that causes the nose to shear off at the point just in front of the Shuttle bay.

STS-51L post breakup with crew cabin arching over ocean

The Next 207 Seconds
The crew compartment is violently thrown around, but the G-forces most likely are not severe enough to seriously injure the crew. Ultimately, the crew cabin continues to move up from approximately 46,000 feet to over 60,000 feet, until its forward momentum is lost and it begins to arc down to the ocean below. At one point the crew probably experience weightlessness as the cabin begins to fall. The crew compartment begins a rotation that will continue until about 100 seconds before impact when it seems to stabilize with the black tiles on the bottom of Challenger’s nose facing the shore.

There is little doubt that most, if not all, of the seven astronauts survived the breakup. Personal Egress Air Packs (PEAP) were activated by the crew and switches at the pilot’s station were changed from launch position. In both cases, the break up of the vehicle, nor the impact on the ocean could have caused these actions. It is believed that all astronauts were strapped into their seats at the time of impact, which would be expected regardless of their state of consciousness.

The oxygen supply for the crew was behind them and lost in the break up. It is likely that the crew knew they lost their oxygen supply, possibly due to a loss in cabin pressure and were seeking to reestablish oxygen flow via the PEAPs. Three of four air packs were activated, unfortunately, if cabin pressure was lost the air packs would not have offered pressurized flow and therefore the crew would have lost consciousness. How quickly that would have happened would have depended on the speed of the possible decompression of the crew compartment.

Regardless of their condition during free fall, the crew would have been killed instantly upon impact in the Atlantic Ocean at 207 seconds after the break up of Challenger. The upper left section of the compartment was likely the point of first impact. It would be over six weeks before the remains were found and recovered.

15 Days in January – Day 15

28 Saturday Jan 2012

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster on the 28th of that month; however, the details of weather and NASA events are based on known historical data.)

Titusville, Florida
Tuesday, January 28, 1986
High Temp: 46° F Low Temp: 32° F

Challenger and crew clear the tower

Where do I start? Seven amazing, wonderful, smart people lost their lives today. None of us can come to terms with the reality of what happened.

The morning was cold. We opened the water valves on Launch Pad 39B overnight to keep the lines from freezing and ice was all over the pad. Still, that should have not been a problem, nor caused a disaster. We had a delay of two hours because of an equipment failure on the pad, but the fuel and crew were loaded normally and Challenger launched at 11:38 AM.

Ice on Launch Pad 39B after water release to protect pipes

There were no warnings, no alarms, no indication of a problem. At 73 seconds after liftoff a massive cloud surrounded the vehicle and we lost sight of it. Then the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs) emerged at the top of the cloud and continued on followed by pieces of debris. We knew that something had happened but it was over a minute before it became apparent that the Orbiter had not survived.

The impact on everyone was a wall of emotions. The feeling of loss because the seven astronauts were our family. The feeling of empathy for the astronaut’s families for their loss. The feeling of anxiety as to if there was something we did that caused this tragedy and the need to find answers as quickly as possible. The loss was made even harder as we all watched helplessly seeing the remains of STS-51L fall into the ocean. Many of us held out hope of the miracle until it became apparent there would not be one.

Much of what happened does not make sense. Any rocket-based vehicle is a flying explosion waiting to happen, but everything possible is done to keep the volatile chemicals from interacting until they reach the nozzle. The cloud was apparently the result of a sudden burn of fuel from the External Tank, which doesn’t necessarily mean it was a violent explosion. If there was an explosion, why did the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs) escape, seemingly untouched. Challenger has been cursed with Main Engine problems, so some wonder if one of them failed causing the External Tank (ET) to breach and the fuel to burn, but again, why didn’t the SRBs also explode? 

There has been discussion that the cold might have caused a problem with the seal around the joint of a SRB, but why would that destroy the External Tank (ET) and Orbiter, but have seemingly little or no impact on the SRBs? It is apparent that the ET is key to explaining what happened. A joint could fail and hot gas escape that is aimed directly at the ET, which could cause an explosion, but a joint is 360°around and less than 25% of a joint faces at or near the ET. Odds of a first time failure of a joint facing the ET after 25 missions are ridiculously low.

STS-51L Christa McAuliffe, Gregory Jarvis, Judy Resnik, Mission Commander Dick Scobee, Ronald McNair, Pilot Michael Smith, Ellison Onizuka in White Room on 8 JAN 1986

The biggest question on everyone’s mind is the one no one wants to discuss. What happened to the crew? The Orbiter and ET emerged from the cloud in fragments and some were large enough to be the area where the crew sat during launch. Most of us believe that they were killed instantly, but no one will rest peacefully until we know what happened to them. 

The scope and breadth of this tragedy is far beyond what I could have imagined. Somehow we all have to move forward, but we’re all trying to deal with what happened. Moving forward doesn’t seem possible, right now. The first step in moving forward will be to understand what happened.

TOMORROW: What Happened to STS-51L

15 Days in January – Day 14

27 Friday Jan 2012

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster on the 28th of that month; however, the details of weather and NASA events are based on known historical data.)

Titusville, Florida
Monday, January 27, 1986
High Temp: 55° F Low Temp: 36° F

Flight deck wide-angle view of STS-51L crew all dressed up and ready to go

It is frustrating when minor issues become show stoppers. Today’s first launch from Pad 39B was thwarted by a simple tool that wouldn’t come off the hatch on Challenger as we locked the crew in the Orbiter. We finally sawed it off and then drilled out a bolt to replace it. By the time we had solved the issue the winds were unacceptable for a landing if we had to abort and bring the Challenger back. We are now scheduled for launch tomorrow morning, January 28.

The weather was cold this morning. We’ve never launched in conditions this cold, but it is a lot colder than 36 ° F only 20,000 feet above Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Challenger will be there about 30 seconds after launch. I guess we shouldn’t be complaining down here.

STS-51L mid-deck with rest of crew strapped in

Tomorrow’s forecast is for clear skies and temperatures to be cold overnight and not as warm tomorrow during the day. The big issue on the Launch Pad for us is whether or not the temperatures will drop below freezing tonight. We have a lot of water piped in and around the pad area and if the water in the pipes freeze and break the Challenger might not go up for several days. One option being discussed is to open valves tonight and let the water flow to keep it from freezing. Trying to heat the entire pad area is not a realistic option and any open heat source is dangerous considering the fuels we have in and around the Shuttle.

If everything goes smoothly tomorrow we will finally get Challenger on its way for its 10th mission. We are now almost a week behind on this launch because of the delays of Columbia and the weather, both here and at other abort landing sites. After the launch we have to clean up the chemical residue from the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs) and inspect the launch pad area for damage. Repairs and  maintenance will be scheduled and addressed, which is currently underway at Launch Pad 39A after Columbia’s January 12th launch. 

By this time next year we will be more like the gate at an airport with a continuous process of preparing for launch, repairing from launch, and preparing for next launch, with three active pad crews (two here at KSC and one at Vandenberg AFB.) President John F. Kennedy gave our country a dream to reach for the stars and it is exciting to watch the dream become a reality.

Tony Hayward: The very model of a modern Major General

23 Wednesday Jun 2010

Posted by in 2020 Enterprise Technologies, Branding, Communication, Crisis Management, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Ethics, Lessons of Life, Management Practices, Passionate People, Public Relations, Rotary

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by Paul Kiser [Twitter: ] [Facebook] [LinkedIn] [Skype: kiserrotary or 775.624.5679]

Tony Hayward - Modern Major General

Enough with the BP CEO bashing! Regardless of any verbal gaffs, or ill-advised yacht racing, if Tony Hayward, the shining star of BP, is guilty of anything he is only guilty of being the perfect CEO. A corporate executives first and last duty is to his investors and when we measure up Mr. Hayward he is, in fact, the very model of a modern corporate executive. If it please the court of the business world I’ll present my case:

POINT ONE: When he took the reins of BP (that does not stand for Bloody Petrol) he immediately weeded out all those people who, and I quote, “….wanted to save the world.” Saving the world is not the goal of business, making money is, and no one can say that Mr. Hayward didn’t make money for the investors of BP. Score one for the British! They’ve become as obsessive about profit as the an American conservative!

The Public Image of Tony Hayward...but it doesn't count

POINT TWO: After the fire and rescue of the victims from the platform Mr. Hayward’s legal team leapt into action to detain the survivors until they signed a release saying that they were not injured…which, in legalese is to say they were signing a waiver of all liability, not a just that they were not physically injured, but that BP could not be sued for any mismanagement, negligence, etc. This reflects devotion that Mr. Hayward and his team have for the investor. Duty first and last!

POINT THREE: Within hours of the disaster BP’s crack crisis response team sprung into action securing all information and potential access to protect the corporation from negative portrayals by the world media. First  there was no oil leaking, then only 5,000 barrels, then, well, no comment. Carefully crafted statements were released to reassure the investors, (not the public,) that the event was a minor setback and the amount of oil would have a minimal impact on the excessive amount of water in the Gulf of Mexico. Textbook Public Relations work!

POINT FOUR: Unfortunately, BP could not hide massive oil slicks from the cameras of the media and that could scare the investors…but wait a minute…they could hide them by pouring millions of gallons of toxic dispersants on the oil at the point of origin! Yes, it would make collection the oil impossible, but that was save-the-world thinking, and this was not the time to shirk the duty to the investor with ethics. Again, Mr. Hayward shows us his stuff!

POINT FIVE: The pièce de résistance (my apologies to the British for resorting to French) was the yacht race that Tony Hayward took leave of the United States to attend. As outrage among the American public reached a fever pitch it was a stroke of genius by a perfect corporate executive to again restore order with the investors by demonstrating that this oil spill event is all much ado about nothing and normal aristocratic life is alive and well in this man’s corporation.

It is true that not since King George III have the average, non-conservative American been so incensed with a British national, but the public is passé (again my apologies for using French) in the corporate world, especially in the world of big oil companies. The public will trade ethics for petrol (I’m trying to compensate for using French by using British words) any day of the week. The public’s role is to buy their product, not tell them how to obtain it. Tony Hayward has been true-blue to the investors…I wouldn’t be surprised if his urine is blue! No one can dispute that as a model of the corporate executive, Tony is the best of the best.

I rest my case.

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