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Tag Archives: recession of 2018

Housing Prices Edge Closer to Catastrophe

04 Sunday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Business, Crisis Management, Customer Service, Economy, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Housing, Real Estate, Taxes, The Tipping Point, United States

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2007-09 Recession, California, Colorado, Disaster, economy, home prices, Homes, housing, investment owner, Massachusetts, median home price, Nevada, owner-occupied, real estate, Recession, recession of 2018, United States

For the last twenty years, the United States has been building a tower of paper wealth. Over time the paper value of homes on the market has far outpaced inflation and wage growth. The current realty market has little connection to reality and we are on the brink of a housing catastrophe.

Price With No Reality Check

The real estate market is inherently flawed. Some claim that it is a perfect example of supply and demand, but that is not accurate. Real estate is the perfect example of a capitalistic market where common sense and ethics are overlooked because greed has blinded the people involved.

Prices exceed the bubble of 2007

Home Prices Heading Toward a Cliff

Housing prices are not governed by a person’s (or family’s) ability to pay. They are governed by a real estate professional who has a financial interest in driving the price up, and an owner that wants as much money as possible. The buyer taking all the risk and if the housing prices don’t continue upward, they lose.

So why would anyone buy a house when prices are already too high?

The ‘Investment’ Loophole

Historically, the one house, one owner or owner-occupied concept kept a check on housing prices. If the buyer couldn’t pay the mortgage, he or she would lose their home. That was a big risk. Today’s investment buyer risks little if anything if they can’t pay a second home mortgage. She or he may lose the home if the investment fails but is a loss of potential future revenue and not a personal crisis.

Investment housing creates artificial shortages because one owner can own multiple homes, removing those from the overall inventory. The lower the supply, the higher the price. In 2016, the number of owner-occupied homes in the United States was 63.6%. California’s owner-occupied rate is 55.3% and at $524,000, its median home price is over double compared to $206,300 for the United States.

Median home price in four cities compared to U.S. average

Another 2007?

The current median price for a home in the United States is higher than it was during the housing bubble in 2007. Any shock to the economy would erase the paper home value and flood the market with another round of investment homes being dumped on the market.

It is a crisis that is easy to anticipate, but no one does. When the next recession hits the United States will once again suffer through a massive drop in housing prices as multi-house owners dump their investment homes and walk away.

[COUNT TO 500: 493rd Article in PAULx]

GOP War on the Spirit of Christmas

24 Sunday Dec 2017

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Business, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Green, Health, Higher Education, History, Honor, Management Practices, Politics, racism, Religion, Respect, Taxes, Universities, US History, Women

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115th Congress, Christmas, Congress, corporate tax cut, corporations, Donald Trump, gloating, GOP, government rape, hate, racists, Recession, recession of 2018, Republicans, tax cut for wealthy, tax giveaway

GOP celebrates destroying Christmas 2017

The Republican party has gone to war with Christmas. It’s not just that they disrespected people’s desire to enjoy Christmas by ramming through a disgraceful and unpopular bill during the holiday season. That would have been bad enough, but what they did is craft changes to our tax code that violate almost every Christian belief at a time when a majority Christian nation sought to celebrate one of their most significant holidays.

I believe they did this just before Christmas for three reasons.

Distraction
First, the Republicans in Congress hoped to use the holidays as cover for their anti-Christian deed. They hoped that people would be so wrapped up in the excitement of Christmas that they would be distracted from a sacrifice of citizens and government to  appease the GOP corporate gods.

Before We Knew What Hit Us
Second, the Republicans hoped that by acting quickly, people couldn’t find out all the details of the legislation before an effective campaign could be mounted against it.

A 2018 ‘Nice Guys’ Makeover
Finally, Republicans needed to allow time to do a personality makeover before the 2018 elections. By passing this bill in 2017, they can begin to pass minor, but popular legislation to make them not look like stooges of corporations and the wealthy.

Now we are left with a dark cloud hanging over the holidays. The wealthy will be allowed to steal more money from the government. Corporations will be able to use all the resources the government provides (roads, infrastructure, law enforcement, etc.) and pay little or no taxes for that service. Money and exemptions that were meant for the poor and middle class have been stripped away in order to give the wealthy lower taxes and more money.

Republicans won the war on Christmas. With laughter they destroyed the foundation of our country. The new year will dawn with Trump and Putin still laughing at us. They won. The United States of America lost.

The 2018 Recession

06 Monday Mar 2017

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Politics, racism, Taxes, US History

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2018, cutting taxes, Donald Trump, economy, government revenue, government spending, military spending, President, Recession, recession of 2018, United States

Some people seem to believe that recessions are unpredictable. After all, if we could predict them, why would we let them happen? But recessions are predictable. They follow economic policies that are near-sighted. Policies that use deception to sell them to the citizens. Recessions happen because you can fool some of the people all of the time.

Recession:  The Shadow That Follows Republican Leadership

Republicans, back on top, recession to follow

Republicans, back on top, recession to follow

Republicans and recessions are inseparable. This was true in the 1980’s after Ronald Reagan made massive tax cuts for the wealthiest, while gutting domestic programs. President George Bush (41st) averted a recession when Democrats in Congress forced him to restore government revenues and increase government spending. The 2001 recession came after Republicans forced Bill Clinton to accept tax cuts and dismantle domestic programs after they took control of Congress. George Bush (43rd) used tax and domestic program cuts, along with massive military spending, and stripped down oversight of banking, to lead us into the Great Recession.

The pattern is simple. Republicans cut taxes, primarily for the extremely rich, and cut spending on domestic programs, taking away jobs and money from the economy. Minor tax relief is short-lived and is countered by an economy that is collapsing.

In addition to gutting the country’s economic foundation, Republicans favorite vice is to pour money into the military, which creates spending in small geographic areas, but it doesn’t support the broader sections of the peaceful economy. This type of spending for destruction fails to build lasting infrastructure that promotes the future economy, and creates a flow of government revenue for expenses outside of the United States to finance bases, logistics, and support troops. This money leaves our economy and doesn’t flow back into it.

donald-trump

The face of the economic failure

Trump’s Plan To Destroy the Economy
Government spending is the fuel of the U.S. economy. Specifically, government domestic spending. Military spending is usually burdened with unethical practices of the private military industry that tend to overcharge and under perform.

Donald Trump’s plan is to combine the economic errors of past Republican fiascoes and leave a middle class with low paying service jobs. Spending in the military is only effective if the United States is at war, so it is likely that Trump’s aggressive war of words with the rest of the world is designed to generate violent acts that can be manipulated into an air and ground war.

The result of Trump’s revival of failed Republican economic policies will bring on a recession in 2018, that may last for years.

Government Domestic Spending:  Real Jobs, Good Jobs
Growth in our economy has one common denominator:  Government domestic spending. Money spent by the government pays for both public and private sector jobs. Spending on programs that create new infrastructure and new technologies have the lasting effect on our economy. Spending on dams and hydroelectric programs, highways, and the space program all infused money and technological advances that moved our country into the economic leadership role that it has held for over a century.

When government fails to invest in internal programs it empties the pipeline of money that flows through the economy and that prevents money flowing back to the government, choking off the recharge of tax revenue that keeps the economy going.

Who’s Not Paying?
We are in a wealth crisis. As of 2012, the wealthiest ten percent (10%) of the United States own just under eighty percent (80%) of the wealth. The distribution of wealth in other affluent countries in 2012, showed that the top ten percent (10%) owned fifty to sixty percent (50-60%) of their country’s wealth.

Since Ronald Reagan, Republicans have successfully sacrificed the U.S. economy to make the wealthy, wealthier. Trump plans to put those efforts on steroids as he leads us to a recession that may resemble the Great Recession.

Can It Be Avoided?
No. The election of Donald Trump proved that there is no popular will to identify the problems caused by Republican economic self-pleasuring, and change course to put our country back toward a healthy economy. The best we can do is brace for impact and hope that our least educated citizens will finally see the consistent failure of Republican leadership. 

Other Pages of This Blog

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  • Familius Interruptus: Lessons of a DNA Shocker
  • Moffat County, Colorado: The Story of Two Families
  • Rules on Comments
  • Six Things The United States Must Do
  • Why We Are Here: A 65-Year Historical Perspective of the United States

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