3rd From Sol

~ Learn from before. Live now. Look ahead.

3rd From Sol

Tag Archives: President Obama

2016: Oil Prices Near $5/Gallon?

12 Monday Oct 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Business, Ethics, Government, History, Management Practices, Politics, US History

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

alternative fuel, big oil, Bush, Clinton, crude, electric, fuel, gas prices, gasoline, margin, oil, oil prices, OPEC, President Obama, profit, Reagan, solar, Supply and Demand

Oil prices have more excuses than a meth addict. Demand in China, oil refinery fires or in maintenance, OPEC restricting supply, Saudi Arabia flooding the market, etc. Reality in oil pricing is elusive; however, despite what some experts say, next year will likely see the price at the pump jump based on current factors and on politics.

Minor Influence:  Supply and Demand
We have always been told that supply and demand rules the capitalistic market. Most people mistakenly assume that free market means the market can’t be manipulated, but a free market is ripe for manipulation, especially for the unethical business person.

A prime example of market manipulator is Saudi Arabia. Big oil producers are constantly seeking a bigger piece of the oil market, and fracking in the United States has revitalized US oil production. The Saudi response has been to flood the market with oil to bring down the price/barrel, leaving US producers with increased expenses and less revenue.

World oil supply carefully follows demand (Graphics credit: Yardeni.com)

Graphic 1.0:  World oil supply carefully follows demand (Source: Yardeni.com)

Despite temporary manipulations of the oil supply, the ratio of world supply and demand has not significantly changed in recent history. Demand has steadily increased (See Graphic 1.0,) and supply has increased just slightly less than demand. In fact, the supply of oil carefully follows demand so perfectly that it seems unnatural. It’s almost as if oil companies knew that an over supply would force oil prices down and oil shortages would lead to high gas prices, which would stimulate the development of alternative fuels.

Monthly imported crude oil price (1980 to 2014) Source: Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)

Graphic 2.0:  Monthly imported crude oil price (1980 to 2014) Source: Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)

There is no obvious correlation when comparing the wild deviations in crude oil price (See Graphic 2.0) to the world supply and demand (See Graphic 1.0.) This raises the question: If supply and demand doesn’t control the price of oil in the United States, what does?

US and Europe Oil Demand

Graphic 3.0:  US and Europe Oil Demand. The 2008 recession-triggered a drop in demand (Source: Yardeni.com)

The Game of Oil Pricing
World oil demand has been on the increase, but not in the United States and Western Europe (See Graphic 3.0.) The Recession of 2008, pushed demand down in the United States and Western Europe, but as the world economy collapsed, the price of crude oil rocketed up, then dropped dramatically for six months, then returned to its pre-recession price and resumed a steep climb for the next five years. The price of crude oil didn’t coincide with pre-recession, recession, or post recession demand.

Interestingly, retail gas prices (See Graphic 4.0) make even less sense than crude oil prices, as the price at the pump spiked while crude oil prices dropped. This deviation between crude oil prices and retail gas prices would be repeated, in 2012. The common denominator? The Presidential election. 

2016
Some experts are saying oil prices will remain low in 2016. The problem with these predictions are that the demand for oil is increasing, Republicans are self-destructing, and the economy is in good shape. Low prices at the pump in 2016, would be death to Republicans, and that is not what conservatives in the oil industry do in an election year.

October 2008 and 2012 pricing show a dramatic deviation from past years

Graphic 4.0:  October 2008 and 2012 pricing show a dramatic deviation from past years (Source eia.gov)

Since 1980, oil pricing just prior to Presidential elections in the United States follows an interesting pattern. According to the Energy Information Administration (eia.gov) the average retail regular unleaded price has a strong correlation to the  imported crude oil prices; however, during the last two Presidential election years, the October retail price jumped dramatically, while crude oil prices fell (See Graphic 4.0.) The rare deviation in the price of retail regular unleaded gasoline just before an election again indicates that the market was influenced by political, not free-market, forces. 

Oil pricing during Presidential election year follows a consistent pattern

Graphic 5.0:  Oil pricing during Presidential election year follows a consistent pattern

As 2016, is another election year, and as the Republican party is in deep trouble, the conservative leadership in the oil industry will likely follow the past pattern of attempting to create an economic crisis through manipulation of retail oil prices. Based on the Presidential election years since 1980, the average at-the-pump price of regular unleaded (See Graphic 5.0) will be about $270/barrel or around $4.91/gal.

(NOTE:  Personally, it’s hard to believe we could see $4.91/gallon next October. Despite what the trendlines suggest, I would expect the price to be closer to an average of $4.50/gallon. However, I’m confident that the average price of regular unleaded gas will be over $4.25/gallon.)

Nugent Attempts to Assassinate Obama, Gets Wrong City, Shoots Self

01 Monday Apr 2013

Posted by Paul Kiser in April Fools Day, Crime, Fiction, Government Regulation, Opinion, Politics, Universities

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

guns, National Rifle Association, NRA, President Obama, Ted Nugent

Ted Nugent: America's Epic Fail

Ted Nugent: America’s Epic Failure

Miami, Florida – April 1, 2013

Last April the 64 year-old rock musician Ted Nugent said that if President Barack Obama was re-elected:

“…I will either be dead or in jail by this time next year.” Ted Nugent

It was the latter and he still had two weeks to spare. On April 15, 2012, Nugent made the comment at the National Rifle Association (NRA) convention in St. Louis, Missouri. He was there to support Mitt Romney for President.

Nugent was arrested in Miami, Florida for attempting to assassinate the President; however, it may be hard for the prosecution to make a case against him since he was almost a 1000 miles away from the Commander-in-Chief. The President was scheduled to speak on the campus of the Miami University in Oxford, Ohio; however, Nugent went to the University of Miami in Miami, Florida.

Nugent apparently became enraged when he could not find President Obama and began waving a gun over his head yelling:

“WHERE IS HE! WHERE IS HE! I’LL KILL HIM! I’ll KILL HIM!”

Within minutes several campus police officers arrived and ordered Nugent to drop his weapon. Nugent apparently calmed down and began to tuck the gun under his belt at which point it discharged, wounding himself in the leg. He then yelled:

“You SHOT Me! You SHOT Me!”

The campus police then moved in, took Nugent’s gun and arrested him. It was several hours later that Nugent learned the police had not fired and that he shot himself. He is expected to make a full recovery, but doctors say that he may walk with a limp. When asked if the wound would affect his ability to play and sing, the hospital representative said:

“They’re doctors, not miracle workers.”

A spokesperson for the Secret Service was asked if they would be involved with the case and she said:

“The Secret Service focuses on credible threats, but somebody will probably have to go down to Miami anyway.”

Nugent will be arraigned in Miami on Monday.

The shock of the McChrystal story: Story is over before the article is published

24 Thursday Jun 2010

Posted by Paul Kiser in 2020 Enterprise Technologies, Communication, Crisis Management, Ethics, Human Resources, Internet, Lessons of Life, Management Practices, Print Media, Public Relations, Rotary, Social Interactive Media (SIM), Traditional Media

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Afghanistan, Army, Bloggers, Blogging, Blogs, David Pertraeus, denver post, Executive Management, Facebook, General Stanley McChrystal, latimes, Magazines, Management Practices, McChrystal, Military Command, New Business World, Newspapers, npr, nytimes, President Obama, Public Image, Public Relations, Publicity, Rolling Stones Magaizine, Rotary, scandal, Social Media, Social Networking, traditional media, Twitter, US Military, War

by Paul Kiser [Twitter: ] [Facebook] [LinkedIn] [Skype:kiserrotary or 775.624.5679]

Paul Kiser - CEO 2020 Enterprise Technologies

Today is an amazing day! It may not seem that different to some people, but they just don’t realize what today signifies in the world of social and traditional media. Still, not clear? Think about this:

General Stanley McChrystal

  • Monday, June 21 – Reports surface that President Obama is angry about an article that would be appearing in Rolling Stones magazine. The article has several remarks by General Stanley McChrystal that were derogatory in nature about several people in the Administration. It is announced that McChrystal has been ordered to appear in person at the White House for Wednesday’s staff meeting, normally done via a secure video transmission.
  • Tuesday, June 22 – Thousands of articles, blogs, and news stories on television and radio discuss the article, the General and what should be done. All this happens while the General is in transit to Washington, D.C.
  • Wednesday, June 23 – General McChrystal reports to the White House, his resignation is accepted and it is announced that General David Petraeus will assume his command.
  • Thursday, June 24 – Continued discussion around the world about the article, the General, and President Obama’s solution to the issue. A Google search of the terms ‘McChrystal runaway general Obama’ nets 464,000 hits (many refer to another situation in October 2009) and the same terms appearing in blogs nets 92,000 hits.

So why does this make today an amazing day? The article that is the cause of bringing down the US Commander of the war in Afghanistan, the President making a swift, major change in his top military administrative staff, and has been the subject of discussion around the world for days…isn’t published in print until tomorrow.

But that isn’t even the best part! The best part is that no one is amazed by this bizarre situation. We have become so accustomed to the Internet trumping print media that no one sees the significance of the reaction to a news story superseding the news story actually being published.

What does it mean?
There is no better example of what has happened in the worlds of Social and Traditional Media than the events of this week. Print media used to ‘be’ the news but now print media is only a historical account of news. It is impossible for print media to have any impact on the world because it is too slow. Yes, television and radio were leaders in promoting the story; however, it was the Internet that provided the mechanism for so many ‘civilians’ to react to the story. The story was discussed in blogs, on Facebook, and on Twitter…all in real-time, not on a news cycle.

For the business person it is simple. If you think that Social Media is a waste of time and that it has no ROI (return on investment) for your company then know that your business could be dead before you even know why. If you are not plugged in and aware then you are flying blind in a world that quietly watches you and everything you do. The Google search will give your customer access to the good, the bad, and the ugly about you.

Think about this: a very powerful and successful military man was brought down by one reporter through some inappropriate remarks. In this situation he worked for a major publication, but it could have been a blogger with a video and the impact would have been the same. Social Media is not about how much time it will take out of your day, nor is it about the return on your investment. It is about your survival.

More Articles

  • Tony Hayward: The very model of a modern Major General
  • Rotary@105: A young professionals networking club?
  • One Rotary Center: A home for 1.2 million members
  • War Declared on Social Media: Desperate Acts of Traditional Media
  • Pay It Middle: The Balance between Too Much and Too Little Compensation
  • Mega Executive Pay Leads to Poor Performance
  • Relationships and Thin-Slicing: Why the other person knows what you’re really thinking
  • Browser Wars: Internet Explorer losing, Google Chrome gaining ground
  • Rotary@105:  What BP Could Learn from the 1914 Rotary Code of Ethics
  • Twitter is the Thunderstorm of World Thought
  • Signs of the Times
  • Rotary Magazine Dilemma Reveals the Impact of Social Media
  • How Social Interactive Media Could Transform Higher Education
  • How to Become a Zen Master of Social Media
  • Car Dealership Re-Imagines Customer Service
  • Death of All Salesmen!
  • Aristotle’s General Rules on Social Media
  • Social Media:  What is it and Why Should You Care?
  • Social Media 2020:  Keep it Personal
  • Social Media 2020:  Who Shouldn’t Be Teaching Social Media
  • Social Media 2020:  Public Relations 2001 vs Social Media Relations 2010
  • Social Media 2020: Who Moved My Public Relations?
  • Publishing Industry to End 2012
  • Who uses Facebook, Twitter, MySpace & LinkedIn?
  • Fear of Public Relations
  • Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn…Oh My!
  • Does Anybody Really Understand PR?

Other Pages of This Blog

  • About Paul Kiser
  • Common Core: Are You a Good Switch or a Bad Switch?
  • Familius Interruptus: Lessons of a DNA Shocker
  • Moffat County, Colorado: The Story of Two Families
  • Rules on Comments
  • Six Things The United States Must Do
  • Why We Are Here: A 65-Year Historical Perspective of the United States

Paul’s Recent Blogs

  • Dysfunctional Social Identity & Its Impact on Society
  • Road Less Traveled: How Craig, CO Was Orphaned
  • GOP Political Syndicate Seizes CO School District
  • DNA Shock +5 Years: What I Know & Lessons Learned
  • Solstices and Sunshine In North America
  • Blindsided: End of U.S. Solar Observation Capabilities?
  • Inspiration4: A Waste of Space Exploration

Paul Kiser’s Tweets

What’s Up

January 2023
S M T W T F S
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031  
« Jun    

Follow Blog via Email

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 1,651 other subscribers

Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

 

Loading Comments...