Monthly Archives: October 2015

If I Were Speaker of the House of Representatives

28 Wednesday Oct 2015

Posted by in Education, Ethics, Government, Government Regulation, Higher Education, History, Honor, Politics, Religion, Respect, Taxes, US History

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House of Representatives

This House is Out of Order

It seems that Paul Ryan (R-WI,) has the bid to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives sewn up, but before anyone makes a significant mistake, allow me to offer myself as the alternative choice.

As Speaker, I can guarantee you that the dignity of the United States House of Representatives will be restored. To accomplish this, the following steps will be taken on Day One:

  1. The 38 members of House Freedom Caucus will be declared to be a neo-Republican party, independent of the Republican Party. Anyone joining their caucus will also be declared to be neo-Republicans.
  2. The House will be divided into three parties. The Republicans, the Democrats, and the neo-Republicans. Each will have their own leadership.
  3. Congressional committees will be all be reorganized with the two largest parties determining who will be given a proportional number of members on all committees If a third-party caucus has enough representatives to equal or exceed fifty percent or more of the of the second largest party, the majority leaders of the two largest parties will vote to select one Representative from the third-party to sit on that committee. 
  4. When Congress is in session, the leadership of the two largest parties will meet the first day of the week for breakfast to determine the agenda and issues to be addressed that week. 

That’s it. Four steps to put the House of Representatives in motion again.

The House Freedom Caucus:  The Rotten Apples in the House
The problem in the House is not bad politicians. There have always been bad politicians and always will be in almost every form of government. The problem is that the Republicans have let the worst 38 Representatives to determine what does and does not get done. The have let the House Freedom Caucus bring down everyone to their level because the Republican leadership knows that if they lose the support of these 38 members, they lose their majority.

What the Republicans don’t understand is that they are on the verge of allowing the House Freedom Party destroy the GOP if they don’t rid themselves of these 38 members (36 according to the Pew Research Center.) Here are the members according to Wikipedia and the Pew Research Center:

Rural Districts Running America

Congressional District map for Freedom Caucus membership of the 114th Congress

Congressional District map for Freedom Caucus membership of the 114th Congress (Credit: Wikipedia Commons)

These 38 are Representatives of primarily rural Congressional districts that often feel impotent in the political arena. Residents of rural areas find that their simplistic, socially conservative, sometimes racist, ultra-religious, anti-education view of the United States of America is often ignored because it is contrary to the Constitution and laws of our country. Despite this, residents of rural areas often see themselves as superior to urban residents, even though they lack the knowledge to make informed opinions. This makes them easy targets for unethical politicians to win their vote because rural voters typically listen only to what they wish to hear.  

NEXT:  Paul Ryan’s Legacy of Failure

Living in the Imminent

27 Tuesday Oct 2015

Posted by in Government, Honor, Passionate People, Pride, Random, Science, Space, Technology, Travel

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international-space-station-completeSix people near death 

Don’t they know?

They show no fear

They have to know.

They live surrounded by a monster that kills without effort

Yes, in this millisecond they live in peace

In the next they could die in horror

We have no reason to fear walking outside

But these six

They should have reason

Death awaits outside with the tools of the universe

Radiation, heat, cold, or even nothing can kill

These six live where no one should

Yet, these six rob Death

These six live flawlessly where perfection matters

These six know Death and know his tools

Yes, these six know and know the risk

Just before sunrise or just after sunset

We watch them go by

We walk outside and watch them go by

For them, sunrise comes, sunset goes many times a day

But rarely do they go outside to watch

They know what is waiting outside

They know the risk

And three by three they will come and go

Three to rob death, three to come home

Three to look up to, and three to celebrate

Six people near death

But alive and well

2016: Oil Prices Near $5/Gallon?

12 Monday Oct 2015

Posted by in About Reno, Business, Ethics, Government, History, Management Practices, Politics, US History

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Oil prices have more excuses than a meth addict. Demand in China, oil refinery fires or in maintenance, OPEC restricting supply, Saudi Arabia flooding the market, etc. Reality in oil pricing is elusive; however, despite what some experts say, next year will likely see the price at the pump jump based on current factors and on politics.

Minor Influence:  Supply and Demand
We have always been told that supply and demand rules the capitalistic market. Most people mistakenly assume that free market means the market can’t be manipulated, but a free market is ripe for manipulation, especially for the unethical business person.

A prime example of market manipulator is Saudi Arabia. Big oil producers are constantly seeking a bigger piece of the oil market, and fracking in the United States has revitalized US oil production. The Saudi response has been to flood the market with oil to bring down the price/barrel, leaving US producers with increased expenses and less revenue.

World oil supply carefully follows demand (Graphics credit: Yardeni.com)

Graphic 1.0:  World oil supply carefully follows demand (Source: Yardeni.com)

Despite temporary manipulations of the oil supply, the ratio of world supply and demand has not significantly changed in recent history. Demand has steadily increased (See Graphic 1.0,) and supply has increased just slightly less than demand. In fact, the supply of oil carefully follows demand so perfectly that it seems unnatural. It’s almost as if oil companies knew that an over supply would force oil prices down and oil shortages would lead to high gas prices, which would stimulate the development of alternative fuels.

Monthly imported crude oil price (1980 to 2014) Source: Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)

Graphic 2.0:  Monthly imported crude oil price (1980 to 2014) Source: Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)

There is no obvious correlation when comparing the wild deviations in crude oil price (See Graphic 2.0) to the world supply and demand (See Graphic 1.0.) This raises the question: If supply and demand doesn’t control the price of oil in the United States, what does?

US and Europe Oil Demand

Graphic 3.0:  US and Europe Oil Demand. The 2008 recession-triggered a drop in demand (Source: Yardeni.com)

The Game of Oil Pricing
World oil demand has been on the increase, but not in the United States and Western Europe (See Graphic 3.0.) The Recession of 2008, pushed demand down in the United States and Western Europe, but as the world economy collapsed, the price of crude oil rocketed up, then dropped dramatically for six months, then returned to its pre-recession price and resumed a steep climb for the next five years. The price of crude oil didn’t coincide with pre-recession, recession, or post recession demand.

Interestingly, retail gas prices (See Graphic 4.0) make even less sense than crude oil prices, as the price at the pump spiked while crude oil prices dropped. This deviation between crude oil prices and retail gas prices would be repeated, in 2012. The common denominator? The Presidential election. 

2016
Some experts are saying oil prices will remain low in 2016. The problem with these predictions are that the demand for oil is increasing, Republicans are self-destructing, and the economy is in good shape. Low prices at the pump in 2016, would be death to Republicans, and that is not what conservatives in the oil industry do in an election year.

October 2008 and 2012 pricing show a dramatic deviation from past years

Graphic 4.0:  October 2008 and 2012 pricing show a dramatic deviation from past years (Source eia.gov)

Since 1980, oil pricing just prior to Presidential elections in the United States follows an interesting pattern. According to the Energy Information Administration (eia.gov) the average retail regular unleaded price has a strong correlation to the  imported crude oil prices; however, during the last two Presidential election years, the October retail price jumped dramatically, while crude oil prices fell (See Graphic 4.0.) The rare deviation in the price of retail regular unleaded gasoline just before an election again indicates that the market was influenced by political, not free-market, forces. 

Oil pricing during Presidential election year follows a consistent pattern

Graphic 5.0:  Oil pricing during Presidential election year follows a consistent pattern

As 2016, is another election year, and as the Republican party is in deep trouble, the conservative leadership in the oil industry will likely follow the past pattern of attempting to create an economic crisis through manipulation of retail oil prices. Based on the Presidential election years since 1980, the average at-the-pump price of regular unleaded (See Graphic 5.0) will be about $270/barrel or around $4.91/gal.

(NOTE:  Personally, it’s hard to believe we could see $4.91/gallon next October. Despite what the trendlines suggest, I would expect the price to be closer to an average of $4.50/gallon. However, I’m confident that the average price of regular unleaded gas will be over $4.25/gallon.)

Why Blog? Why Not? Six Reasons

07 Wednesday Oct 2015

Posted by in About Reno, Branding, Communication, Generational, Health, Information Technology, Internet, Lessons of Life, Passionate People, Photography, Public Image, Public Relations, Social Interactive Media (SIM), Social Media Relations, Technology

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Why Blog?

Because it’s there.

Blogging is the sand castle of writing, but waves don't wash it away

Blogging is the sand castle of writing, but waves don’t wash it away

  1. Blogging is not a path to fame or fortune. If you think people are going to hang on your every blog post, you will likely be disappointed. If you think your blog is going to change the world, you will likely be disappointed. If you think people are going to pay you to write, you will likely be disappointed.
  2. Blogging is the opportunity to write. Like dance, or acting, or painting, blogging is a creative art. The more you write, the better your skills. The more skilled, the more satisfying.
  3. Blogging is expression. It is a public diary that exposes who you are and what you think. If you try to be someone you’re not, you likely will be embarrassed.
  4. Blogging is long term. If your measure of success is the number of readers who read yesterday’s blog, you probably shouldn’t blog. The Internet is a library and Google is the librarian. Five years from now someone may search for information and discover your blog is exactly what they needed. That is success. Remember, your blog is one among billions, but time is without measure.
  5. Blogging is about legacy. Your children’s children will have the opportunity to get to know you through your blog. It will expose them to your mind and your passions. Somewhere down the ancestry line will be a grandchild or great-grandchild who thinks exactly like you, and they will treasure the opportunity to get to know themselves through your writing.
  6. Blogging is about finding yourself. Writing down our internal discussions can be revealing. We may not fully understand our values and who we are until it comes back to us in our own words.

Most people cannot fathom why anyone would blog, but if you blog, you are not ‘most people.’ That alone should reassure you of the value of blogging.

A Failure of Communication

06 Tuesday Oct 2015

Posted by in About Reno, Branding, Business, Communication, Crisis Management, Customer Relations, Customer Service, Education, Generational, Government, Higher Education, Information Technology, Internet, Management Practices, parenting, Print Media, Public Image, Public Relations, Social Interactive Media (SIM), Social Media Relations, Technology, Traditional Media, Universities, Website, Women

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“What we got here is a failure to communicate“
Prison Warden in Cool Hand Luke

Organizations should use extreme caution in employing anyone over forty-five for handling public image and public relations. I fall into that bracket and I’ve been studying social media since 2007, but I only know enough to understand that most ‘professionals’ of the traditional media don’t have a clue when it comes to communicating information to people in this century.

Traditional media professionals reminisce about the glory days when the game was to be on good terms with the editor of the local newspapers, have drinks with the news directors of the local television stations, and talk shop with the other local public relations (PR) directors at the bigger companies. Those were the days when a phone call could land a big story for the local news that would launch a new product or service. Top management would pat the PR guy on the back (or on the butt if the person was female) and tell him or her what a great job they did.

Those days are over.

The Internet, Facebook, customer reviews, Twitter, Yelp, and a thousand other media channels severely wounded traditional media and the old ways are never coming back. Yet, talk to an old PR person and say that nothing has really changed. It’s all about who you know. Old PR people don’t have a clue at how silly they sound.

I was at a school board meeting for a public charter school last week where a self-professed ‘expert’ in public relations announced that she was at a conference and learned that people no longer used websites to obtain information. She said that parents of school-age children only paid attention to Facebook and Instagram.

Actual "Principal's message" from current school website....written at least three years ago

Actual “Principal’s message” from current school website….written at least three years ago

It should be noted, and that the school’s website is one of the worst on the Internet, and that the school is known for its severe deficiency in communicating information to parents.

Public Communication 2015
As part of the out-of-touch generation, take my advice with a grain of sodium chloride, or whatever water retaining additive you choose, but here is what I have learned in the past eight years.

It is true that many people from different generations tend to engage in social media at varying levels; however, there is no one single media that can reach everyone regardless of their generation. Education level, social economic status, and language all play a role in where people gather information. To declare that there are one or two media sources that parents of school-age children rely on is arrogant at best, and more likely, ignorant.

Any organization’s strategy has to be to use every possible form of media delivery to reach the stakeholders. In the case of a school, information has to be delivered through student folders, phone call announcements, in-school announcements, school website, parent emails, mail, Public Service Announcements (PSA,) school’s Facebook page, etc. Information must also be repeated in order to reach people when they’re listening. A single Facebook post is like going to a street corner at 6:00 AM and yelling out information and then assuming that everyone who passes by that street corner that day will hear the message.

But just sending out the same message through all the channels is ineffective. Social media channels are best used as a ‘reminder’ or ‘alert’ forum with a link back to one source (e.g.; the school website.) Long posts on Facebook make the information less likely to be read both now and in the future. Short posts with a link to more information for those interested is the most efficient method of delivery.

The website is NOT dead. In fact, it is more vital than ever. A charter school’s website is an information source for those considering enrolling their children, a primary source for parents for detailed information, and it establishes the public image for the school. A Facebook page is vital, and if you have a brilliant administration, Twitter can be the inside source for parents who want to know the inside scoop of what is happening now, but the school website will always be the 24/7/365 place for vital information.

It will take a decade or more to weed out the old PR professionals who live in the past; however, it doesn’t take a sixteen-year-old to know when someone doesn’t understand how to communicate in this century. If the stakeholders say they are not being adequately informed, it’s obvious the organization has a problem.