15 Days in January – Day 5

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster. The character’s account is fictional; however, the details of weather and Space Shuttle events are based on known historical facts.)

Titusville, Florida
Saturday, January 18, 1986
High Temp: 70° F  Low Temp: 61° F

STS-61C Columbia lands at night at Edwards AFB

Today was a good news/bad news day. The good news was that Columbia is back on Earth. The bad news that it didn’t come home. It’s sitting at Edwards AFB, which means it will add about a week to the turnaround time before it flies again. We just can’t seem to catch a break. The landing took place after dark after they waited as long as they could for a KSC landing attempt.

Our next launch is still scheduled for January 23, and I still don’t know how we can make it. I’m not sure anyone will be ready, but there are a bunch of smart people in air-conditioned rooms that must know more than the rest of us. Of course, Challenger won’t fly if we are not ready.

To give you an idea of the schedule we are looking at, here are the launches scheduled for this year:

1986 Space Transportation System (STS) Missions

  • January 12 (KSC) – Columbia (STS-61C) – Deploying a satellite and experiments (Completed)
  • January 24 (KSC) – Challenger (STS-51L) – Deploying satellites and experiments
  • March 6 (KSC) – Columbia (STS-61E) – Astro 1 mission
  • May 15  (KSC) – Challenger (STS-61F) – Deployment of Ulysses satellite
  • May 20 (KSC) – Atlantis (STS-61G) – Deployment of Galileo satellite
  • June 24 (KSC) – Columbia (STS-61H) – Deployment of 3 satellites
  • July 1 (Vandenberg) – Discovery (STS-62A) – Dept. of Defense mission
  • July 22 (KSC) – Challenger (STS-61M) – Deployment of TDRS-4 satellite
  • August 18 (KSC) – Atlantis (STS-61J) – Deployment of Hubble Space Telescope satellite
  • September 4 (Vandenberg) – Discovery (STS-61M) – Dept. of Defense mission
  • September 27 (KSC) – Challenger (STS-61I) – Deployment of Intelsat-4 satellite
  • September 29 (Vandenberg) – Discovery (STS-62B) – Dept. of Defense mission
  • October 1 (KSC) – Columbia (STS-61K) – Mission information not released
  • November 1 (KSC) – Atlantis (STS-61L) – Mission information not released
  • December (Vandenberg?) – Challenger (STS-71B) – Dept. of Defense mission

One down, 14 to go. 1986 is going to be a big year for NASA!

15 Days in January – Day 4

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster. The character’s account is fictional; however, the details of weather and Space Shuttle events are based on known historical facts.)

Titusville, Florida
Friday, January 17, 1986
High Temp: 72° F  Low Temp: 62° F

STS-61C launches a satellite from cargo bay

For the second day in a row weather caused Mission Control to cancel Columbia’s landing. Weather was better here, but it was cloudy both here and at Edwards. They really have to land it here at KSC if we have any hope of getting the program back on schedule.

I wonder if the suits in the control room are being too cautious. The pilot has some of the most sophisticated navigation tools available in the world and he doesn’t even actually fly the Orbiter until just before the approach and landing. He just monitors the computers, and if he wanted the computers could land it for him. Visibility should not be a reason to wave off a landing.

My guess is the caution is due to the VIP on board. Nobody wants to make a bad call when a politician life is at stake and I’m sure he’s perfectly happy to have extra time in space. Still, we’re not running a tourism service and I think everyone knows Columbia has to get its wheels back on the ground as quickly as possible.

STS-61C Columbia-Representative Bill Nelson peels grapefruit

We are scheduled for 15 missions this year and no one really expects that is possible. I would guess that we could do 12 missions, but even that will not be possible if we keep having these delays. Our next launch is scheduled for next Thursday, but with the delays, I don’t see how we can be ready. 

This year is when we ramp up the program to go from exploring to occupying space. Orbiting outposts that are living and working environments are next in America’s advancement into to space. From there, bases on the Moon and Mars are not far behind. The Space Transportation System (STS) program will pave the way and I’m excited to be a part of it. We just have to get our ‘sea legs’ on launches and landings and it will all fall into place. We have 24 successful STS missions (assuming Columbia ever comes home) and the next launch will be our 25th. Space travel may never be routine, but we’re starting to understand what it will take to be the space port for the world.

15 Days in January – Day 3

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster. The character’s account is fictional; however, the details of weather and Space Shuttle events are based on known historical facts.)

Titusville, Florida
Thursday, January 16, 1986
High Temp: 69° F  Low Temp: 52° F

They waved off the Columbia landing today. Weather conditions here and at the backup landing site at Edwards AFB were unacceptable. It was drizzly here today and cloudy in California. Personally, I think that landing at Edwards should only be an emergency. When an Orbiter lands at Edwards it costs over $1.5 million dollars to get it back here and we lose a week in turnaround time. If we can’t land because the weather at Kennedy Space Center we could wait for several days and still save money and time on the recovery of the Orbiter.

Atlantis (STS-61-B) was the last mission and it landed at Edwards on October 7th and it was October 12th before it was back here. Once it got back here we had the fastest turn around in the history of the program. Atlantis was out to the launch pad by November 12th. Had it landed here at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) it would have been ready to go by November 7th. The only reason to land at Edwards is if the next launch for that vehicle will be from Vandenberg AFB, and our first launch from there isn’t going to happen until July.

STS-61-B Atlantis landing at Edwards on October, 7, 1985

Of course, delays have their costs, too. Every time we scrub a landing or launch we are wasting money because we all get paid whether the Orbiter comes or goes,…or doesn’t. Still, if we are going to prove the value of the program we need to be able to get the Orbiters back in the air as quickly as possible, and that means landing at KSC.

Fortunately, tomorrow will be warmer and hopefully dryer. It should be a good day for a landing. Columbia has been a pain in the neck. It should have been up and down by Christmas and now were almost a month later and still waiting for it to land. Once Columbia is back home we are scheduled to launch Challenger next week.  

15 Days in January – Day 2

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster. The character’s account is fictional; however, the details of weather and Space Shuttle events are based on known historical facts.)

Titusville, Florida
Wednesday, January 15, 1986
High Temp: 64° F  Low Temp: 43° F

STS-61-C Launch on January 12, 1986

STS-61-C, or Columbia is coming back tomorrow, pending good weather. We should have Challenger ready for launch a week after Columbia lands. It was scheduled for launch at 2:42 PM EST on the 22nd, but when they had to scrub the December launch of Columbia, they moved Challenger’s launch back a day to the 23rd.

Columbia’s main mission was to launch a communications satellite and that was a success. They have had a bunch of experiments, most of them are in the Shuttle bay, but they will have everything wrapped up for tomorrow’s landing.

Personally, I’ll be glad to have Representative Bill Nelson back on the ground. I’m not sure it’s a great idea to have the people who champion our budget in Congress to take the risk of flying in space. One mistake and we could lose all our financial support and the STS program would be over. I guess the PR people must know what they are doing.

Representative Bill Nelson with on board experiment

The next mission (STS-51-L) is also going to be a high-profile flight. We have the first ‘official’ civilian on the Challenger trip. She is our first ‘teacher-in-space.’ I wonder if this is going to be a regular thing from here on out. I understand we need the public’s support and I guess this is the best way to get it. Still, I think people just need to accept that our leadership in space makes us technologically superior here on Earth. Let us do our jobs at NASA and our country will reap the benefits in advanced scientific and engineering knowledge.

We had some fog today, but this morning was a little warmer. Yesterday’s low was too close to freezing for Florida. Our farmers don’t like it when we get that cold. Hopefully, we’ve had our cold snap for this winter.

15 Days in January – Day 1

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(NOTE: The following is a fictionalized account of the 15 days in January 1986 leading up to the Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster. The character’s account is fictional; however, the details of weather and Space Shuttle events are based on known historical facts.)

Titusville, Florida
Tuesday, January 14, 1986
High Temp: 63° F  Low Temp: 37° F

STS 61 C Crew - Columbia - Launched January 12, 1986

At least we have Columbia in the air. These delays are frustrating. Columbia was supposed to be launched on December 18th and since then launch attempts on December 19th, twice on January 6th, and January 7th, 9th, and 10th were all scrubbed for one reason or another. Finally, we got them off Sunday. At least the launch went well, but we have Challenger waiting in the wings.

Columbia is supposed to come back on this Friday, the 17th, but that’s going to push back the launch of the Challenger. There’s talk of bringing back Columbia early so we can move up the Challenger launch. Hopefully, we’ll get the official word tomorrow.

Charlie Bolden is the pilot on the Columbia on this flight. This is his first flight. Coincidentally, he’s from Columbia, South Carolina. He was the first guy we put in the slidewire basket to test the launch tower escape system. We didn’t kill him, which is at least on measure that it must work. 

We’ve also got a politician on board the Columbia. Representative Bill Nelson is one of the payload specialists. God I hope nothing goes wrong on this flight. That would put a quick end to the program. For all my complaining I have to say it’s pretty exciting to be part of the launch pad team right now. There’s a lot of pressure, but we’re doing something no one else in the world can do and I wouldn’t trade my job to anyone.

It was chilly this morning. It felt like we were in Denver. I didn’t take my jacket off until late this afternoon. Tomorrow should be warmer and maybe we can get back to more normal temperatures.

Evangelical’s Line In The Sand: South Carolina

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It comes down to South Carolina.

Mitt Romney gave Evangelicals a bloody nose in Iowa and everyone knew he would win New Hampshire, but South Carolina is the line in the sand. If Romney wins South Carolina, Evangelicals are done and the rest of the primaries become a big Romney celebration.

Bachmann, Perry, Cain all served up what Evangelicals wanted

It doesn’t look good for Evangelicals. The New York Times shows Romney favored in South Carolina with almost 32% supporting him. Newt Gingrich, who is hardly a darling of the Evangelicals is second with 24% and Rick Santorum is running a poor third with 19.5%. The problem is that Evangelicals seem to have an attention span of three year-old when it comes to supporting a candidate. Santorum’s dramatic showing in Iowa was likely because he became the Iowa Evangelical flavor of the week at the perfect moment.

Paul Kiser

Evangelicals flaw, …well, one of them, is that they have an absurd concept of what government should be and they are so passionate about their vision of owning “that which is Caesar’s” that they aren’t aware that most Americans don’t like their ‘we-know-best’ piety. Evangelicals want to hear what they want to hear and desperate Conservative politicians, like Newt Gingrich, are happy to deliver and bow down to them.

So Evangelicals are on a constant search for the next political Messiah, then drop them as quickly as they found him or her (let’s not forget Bachmann…Michele Bachmann…remember?  The one with the crazy, I’m-going-to-eat-you look? Google ‘Bachmann’ and you’ll remember her.)

The problem for Romney is that Evangelicals are married to their fantasy candidate and Romney is not, nor will be ‘it’, so getting them to vote in November is unlikely. For Romney, a South Carolina win will end the political involvement by many Social Conservative voters and leave him with two-thirds or less of the Republican party to support his bid for the White House. The scenario for Romney becomes worse if Ron Paul remains a player, but the Republican Achilles has enough heel-biters to deal with for now.

A version of this article first published as
Evangelical’s Line In The Sand: South Carolina

on Technorati.com

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Dates of Historical Note in 2012

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Missile sites in Cuba (1962)

April of 2012, will be the 100th anniversary of the launch and sinking of the RMS Titanic.  In 2012, Louisiana will celebrate its bi-centennial, while New Mexico and Arizona will mark their centennial. This upcoming Leap year will also note the 50th year since the Cuban Missile Crisis and America’s successful efforts to have a human orbit Earth. In addition to the October crisis in Cuba, 1962, is notable for the multiple conflicts between Russia and the United States that almost put the planet into a nuclear holocaust. Here are those, and other significant 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300, 500 and 800 year milestones coming in 2012.

JANUARY

  1  – The Republic of China was established (1912) as were the Navy Seals (1962)

  3 – Pope John XXIII excommunicates Fidel Castro (1962)

  6 – New Mexico became the 47th State (1912)

10 – Avalanche in Peru kills almost 4,000 (1962)

23 – Estimated 7.0-7.8 earthquake strikes near New Madrid, Missouri (1912 – 3rd powerful earthquake in 6 weeks)

26 – Ranger 3 (Moon Probe) is launched (1962)

28 – Ranger 3 misses Moon by over 22,000 miles (1962)

31 – Asteroid 433 Eros will pass near Earth, well 16.6 million miles (2012)

FEBRUARY

John Glenn in Friendship 7

  3 – The United States begins an embargo on Cuba (1962)

  6 – The Diamond Jubilee of the crowning of Elizabeth II (1952)

  7 – An estimated 7.4 to 8.0 earthquake strikes New Madrid, Missouri (1912-4th powerful earthquake in 2 months)

  8 – Winter Olympics are held in France (1992) and Utah (2002)

10 – A Russian spy is exchanged for Francis Gary Powers (1962 – CIA U-2 spy plane pilot shot down over Russia)

11 – British Airways is privatized (1987)

14 – Arizona becomes 48th State (1912)

20 – John Glenn becomes the first American to orbit Earth (1962)

MARCH

  1 – 1st KMart opens (1962) and the United States invades Afghanistan (2002)

12 – Girl Scouts of America founded (1912)

24 – Disney and France sign contracts to build Disneyland Paris (1987)

26 – 7.7 earthquake destroys Caracas, Venezuela (1812)

27 – Tokyo, Japan gives Washington, D.C. 3,000 cherry trees (1912)

30 – Queen Elizabeth, the Queen Mother died at 101 years old (2002)

APRIL

Titanic leaves on its maiden voyage

  6 – New York slave revolt kills nine white people (1712 – 21 African-Americans were arrested, found guilty, and executed)

10 – The unchristened RMS Titanic sets sail on maiden voyage (1912) and 1st major league baseball game played at Dodger Stadium (1962)

14- RMS Titanic strikes iceberg (1912)

15 – RMS Titanic sinks killing 1,514 people (1912)

17 – US & South Korea to split command of forces in that country (2012)

20 – Baseball’s Fenway Park and Tiger Stadium open (1912)

23 – Ranger 4 (Moon probe) is launched (1962)

26 – Ranger 4, with failed electronics, crashes into the Moon (1962)

30 – Louisiana is admitted as 18th State (1812)

MAY

Path of Annular Solar Eclipse of May 20, 2012 (click to see larger map)

  1 – 1st Target store opens (1962)

12 – World Expo opens in South Korea (2012)

20 – Annular Eclipse across western United States (2012)

22 – An in-flight bomb brings down Continental Airlines Flight #11 (1962)

24 – Scott Carpenter is the 2nd American to orbit Earth (1962)

26 – Planetary probe Odyssey finds evidence of significant water on Mars (2002)

28 – 19 year-old West German lands plane in Red Square (1987)

JUNE

  3 – Air France 007 crash kills 130 (1962)

  5 – Venus transits the Sun. The next transit will not be for over 100 years (2012)

11 – 3 escape from Alcatraz (1962)

12 – President Reagan, in Berlin, tells Gorbachev to “tear down this wall!” (1987) and Napoleon invades Russia (1812)

18 – War of 1812 (US and Britain) begins (1812)

19 – Supreme Court rules that Creationism can’t be required teaching in schools  (1987)

22 – 2nd Air France flight in June kills 113 (1962)

24 – France (Napoleon) invades Russia (1812)

25 – Supreme Court rules that mandatory prayers in school are illegal (1962)

28 – Iraq uses mustard gas on its own people (1987)

JULY

  2 – 1st WalMart opens (1962)

10 – The Great Fire of 1212 burns London and the structures on the London Bridge (1212)

11 – World population estimated at 5 billion people (1987)

17 – Last US atmospheric nuclear test (1962 – Nevada)

21 – WorldCom (MCI) files for bankruptcy (2002)

22 – Mariner 1, a probe intended to go to Venus, was destroyed soon after launch (1962)

27 – London opens its 3rd Summer Olympic Games (2012)

AUGUST

  4 – The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rescinds the Fairness Doctrine that required balanced news reporting (1987)

  5 – Marilyn Monroe dies (1962)

27 – Mariner 2, a probe to Venus, is launched (1962)

SEPTEMBER

Kennedy at Rice University

  2 – USSR agrees to send arms to Cuba (1962)

10 – Switzerland joins United Nations (2002)

11 – USSR warns that any attack on Cuba or on Soviet ships sailing to Cuba would be an act of war (1962)

12 – Kennedy gives, “…we choose to go to the Moon…” speech at Rice University (1962)

27 – Rachel Carson’s book Silent Spring is released (1962)

OCTOBER

  1 – 1st African American student is admitted to the University of Mississippi…escorted by Federal Marshalls (1962) and Johnny Carson joins the Tonight Show (1962)

  2 – Congress gives President George W. Bush authorization to go to war (2002)

  5 – 1st Beatles single is released (1962)

11 – 2nd Vatican Council begins ((1962)

14 – Former President Theodore Roosevelt shot, but not seriously injured, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (1912) and a U-2 flight is made over Cuba (1962)

15 – Based on U-2 photos, the United States confirms that Soviet offensive missiles are being built in Cuba (1962)

19 – United States forces put on High Alert (1962) and Black Monday (1987)

22 – John F. Kennedy gives a television address regarding the situation in Cuba (1962)

26 – The United States goes to DEFCON 2 (1962)

28 – After secret talks, Russia backs down and the Cuba Missile Crisis deescalates (1962)

NOVEMBER

  1 – 1st exhibit of the finished Sistine Chapel (1512 – Michelangelo’s work)

  3 – First use of the term ‘personal computer’ in the media (1962)

  5 – Republicans gains control of House, Senate, and Executive Branch (2002)

13 – Iraq agrees to United Nations demand to disarm (2002)

17 – Dulles Airport in Washington D.C. is opened (1962) and Tsunami hits Alaska (1987)

25 – Philippines hit with a Category 5 hurricane (1987) and the Homeland Security Act is signed into law (2002)

29 – Britain and France agree to jointly build the Concorde airplane (1962)

DECEMBER

  7 – Iraq complies with United Nations requirement for filing a list of weapons (2002)

  8 – New York City newspapers go on strike (1962)

  9 – Windows 2.0 released by Microsoft (1987) and United Airlines declares bankruptcy (2002)

12 – 12/12/12 at 12:12:12 PM

14 – Mariner 2 flies by Venus and sends back first data on the planet (1962)

27 – Spain passes the ‘Leyes de Burgos‘ (Laws of Burgos) governing the Spanish treatment of the native people of the Americas (1512)

This article first published as
Dates of Historical Note in 2012

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Bad News For Romney: He Might Win Iowa

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Can Romney Pull Out A Loss in Iowa?

Winning in Iowa might not be the ‘kiss of death’ for a Republican presidential candidate, but it will certainly give the winner bad breath. The Republican party in Iowa is dominated by ultra-right wing, Bible-thumping, white zealots who have a 5-minute loyalty to whoever panders to them the most. A GOP presidential candidate in Iowa is like being in a dancer in a strip club. The patron’s affection is dependent on how far the dancer will go for them.

Mitt Romney has avoided that strip club and the national polls have shown it’s been a smart move. Now, despite his efforts to lose Iowa, he finds himself in the lead with only days left before the caucuses. The latest CNN poll shows Romney is now leading, not so much because he is moving ahead, but because Newt Gingrich is moving backward…fast. This can only be bad news for Romney who really needs to lose Iowa in order to appear to be a legitimate candidate to the rest of the nation.

Iowa has tarnished the reputation of many Republican candidates. Remember who won Iowa in 2008? Mike Huckabee, who then promptly faded into the political wallpaper. During the last 30 years, when there was not an incumbent GOP candidate, Iowa Republicans have selected the next President only once (George Bush in 2000.) 

Mitt Romney has 25% support in Iowa in the CNN poll, which is up 5% as Gingrich fell by 19% in three weeks. Romney’s best hope is that Ron Paul will continue to surge forward (up 5% to 22%) and overtake him. The penny on the rail is Rick Santorum. He gained the most from Gingrich’s holiday free fall and picked up 11%. Had some of that support gone to Paul, Romney wouldn’t have to sweat the next few days.

Romney could do one thing that would assure him a loss in Iowa and his eventual Republican nomination. He could announce that Evangelicals are pushing America into a Taliban-like society and they should be stopped before gangs of Christians are walking the streets looking for someone to stone to death. That would give him his Iowa loss and likely gain him the White House. 

This article first published as
Bad News For Romney:  He Might Win Iowa

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PBS Station To Cut After-School Programming To Attract Donors

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Paul Kiser

Reno, Nevada PBS affiliate, KNPB is cutting almost a third of its dedicated children’s programming and all of its dedicated after-school shows that target school-aged children. Effective next week all PBS Kids shows on KNPB will end at 12:30 PM, cutting 2.5 hours from its current 9 hours of children’s programming. The programming cuts will put KNPB third from the bottom of 30 western United States PBS stations in total hours of daily children’s programs  and the only PBS affiliate without after-school programming.

Kurt Mische, President and CEO of KNPB, denied that the station is cutting ‘all’ programming for school-aged children, and noted that programs like NOVA, Nature, American Experience, and Great Performances “are of great benefit…and interest…to school age children.” Those programs along with the Antique Roadshow will now air once a week at 5:00 PM after PBS News Hour and The Charlie Rose Show, which will fill the after-school time slots at 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM.   

Mische indicated that the programming changes are being initiated to attract donors and money, which school-age children are not providing to the non-profit organization.  He explained,  

“Making our changes will allow us to serve a larger audience of viewers…and donors…who not only watch but help to financially support our important service.”

Another PBS affiliate recognizes the issue, but has different philosophy regarding programming for school-age children. Ron Pisaneschi, the Director of Content for the PBS affiliate in Boise, Idaho (Idaho PTV) said that there is more programming competition for the attention of school-age children because of commercial children’s television on the cable channels, but added, “even though the audience is small, we want to serve them.” 

Hours of Daily Children's Programming of 30 Western US PBS Stations

Programs cut from KNPB’s schedule are The Electric Company for 6-10 year-olds, Cyberchase for 8-11 year-olds, Super Why! for 3-6 year-olds, WordWorld for pre-schoolers, and a second daily airing of Arthur for 4-8 year-olds. KNPB already had cut Fetch! for 6-10 year-olds earlier this year. The only two PBS stations with fewer hours of children programs are Rohnert Park and San Mateo, California. Both are in the San Francisco area market where PBS affiliate KQED has 19.5 hours of children’s programming in addition to a 24-hour PBS Kids channel. San Mateo PBS affiliate KCSM has only one hour of daily children’s programming; however, KCSM is currently up for sale and accepting bids until February 14, 2012.

Ironically, Mische’s attitude about the value of children’s programming to KNPB and to the State of Nevada was more supportive last year when he stated,

KNPB is proud to be a leader in education. At a time when education in Nevada garners its share of negative publicity, KNPB is taking action to impact education and life-long learning. We broadcast 52 hours per week of award winning, high quality, and trusted children’s programs that delight and teach youngsters.

KNPB 2010 Annual Report

The children’s shows, including all after-school shows will be cut effective January 2, 2012.

A version of this article first published as
PBS Station To Cut After-School Programming To Attract Donors

on Technorati.com

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Graph: Hours of Children’s Programming on 30 Western US PBS Affiliates

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How many hours of dedicated children’s programming are on PBS stations in the western United States?  This graph shows that after KNPB cuts 2.5 hours of children’s programming on January 2nd, it will be tied for third among 30 western US PBS affiliates for the least amount of children’s programs (programming survey based on changes to be made in January 2012.) KNPB will also be the only station among those surveyed without after-school programming.

Click on graph for larger image

Writing My Obituary

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NOTE: Today is my 54th birthday.  This is not a significant birthday; however, I have decided that this is a good time to tempt fate and write my obituary. I should note that I have no death wish and I hope I live for at least a few decades more, but without further ado, my obituary:

Attitude, attitude, attitude

Paul was born on December 19, 1957, in the evening at a small hospital in Craig, Colorado. His birth interrupted a card game being played by his mother some of her friends. He was the fourth son by his mother, Frances, and father, Vernon, both of whom have passed. His surviving siblings are Ken, Mike, and Roy who still do not understand how someone with Paul’s political belief’s and attitudes could have been born to two nice conservative parents.

Paul Kiser, on the phone, mouth open, per usual

Paul grew up in Craig and spent summers as a young child with his family camping at various work sites where his father was a heavy equipment operator for a local business known as Henderson Construction Company. These summers at Hahn’s Peak in northwestern Colorado and Bridger’s Peak in southwestern Wyoming gave Paul an appreciation for spending time outdoors. He also loved the times that his father would let him ‘walk the Cat’ from one work site to another, or use the Backhoe to dig really deep holes.

Paul and his brother Roy spent many summer afternoons at Hahn’s Peak digging and chipping quartz crystals out of boulders near the family’s summer camp, and built miles of toy-sized roads and canals around the stream that ran by the Airstream Trailer that was the summer home to the Kiser clan.

The bike, the car, 1968

Throughout his childhood Paul participated in the annual rituals of deer and elk seasons that involved large hunting camps, long, cold stretches of sitting on a rock overlooking a valley, and gutting, dragging, and hanging animals on a nearby tree. Eventually the animals were butchered into packages of white, waxed butcher paper that would be labeled with the type of animal and year killed, then placed in one of two freezers.

Paul was taught that while guns in the field were appropriate if used correctly, loaded guns in populated places were never acceptable and later in life found gun proponents concept of gun ownership with the hope of having a legal opportunity to kill another human among the most anti-Christian of conservative thought.

Paul was not a great athlete in his youth; however, he was a better than average cross-country runner in high school, but not by much. He did excel at Frisbee playing late in High School; however, he found that being a cool Frisbee player does not impress small town girls, ….nor should it.

Prom 1976

Paul left Craig after graduation in 1976, and attended the University of Northern Colorado for three years. He was a Student Advisor (SA) in Wiebking Residence Hall for his second and third years to help pay for his college. After changing majors more than his hair style, he left Greeley to live in Colorado Springs for a year where he met his first wife while he worked in Penrose Hospital’s Staffing Office.

Paul moved to Denver shortly before his marriage to work for a temporary medical staffing agency. It was there that he would live the next fifteen years. During that time he worked for two different hospitals in Human Resources. It was also during this time that his two daughters, Kelli and Katy were born. Paul and his first wife divorced after eight years of marriage.

After being laid off in the late 1980’s Paul was given a severance package that included outplacement counseling and testing. Paul was told that he scored in the 90th percentile for logical thinking and independence, but in the 10th percentile in ability to conform. He was advised to seek a career in the arts.

New Year's Eve 2001

Paul worked several jobs in retail and management until he met his second wife, Saralinda. who had a theater degree.  Paul and Saralinda moved to Reno, Nevada in 1995 where he finished his first degree in Business Administration and began his Bachelor of Fine Arts degree in Theatre. It was during this time that he and Saralinda started a theater company that taught theatre and produced plays and musicals for both children and adult actors.

Kennedy Space Center 2006

Paul joined Rotary in July of 2001 and was an active member until 2010. After closing the theatre in 2003, Paul worked for the University of Nevada and then an IT company in Sparks. In 2005, Alexander, Paul’s third child, and first with Saralinda was born. Both of Paul’s daughters married and Alexander is uncle to three nieces and one nephew. Paul once noted that life is enriched by your children and they are also the only legacy that counts in the end.

Late in his life Paul began writing extensively, as well as traveling for business, which he enjoyed. One of his favorite trips was taken in July 2010 when he went to observe the final launch of the Space Shuttle in Florida.

Kelli, Kelli, Husbands Ellery and Austin, and Grandchildren

Paul aspired to be George Bernard Shaw’s ‘Unreasonable Man’ and his articles often reflect a rejection of the status quo and sought to challenge the paradigms created in the past in favor of adapting to the realities of the present. This almost always caused significant irritation and conflict with those who were comfortable with current methods and ideas.

Paul favored the concept of multiple universes as proposed by string and M-theories, believing that of all possible realities, that he lived one of, if not the best, reality.

Paul Kiser, dead at 54…or not.

Paul Kiser

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Conservatives Weaponize Religion, Worship Wealth

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First Conservative Church of America?

In the past two weeks Conservatives dropped any pretense about their goal of creating new laws that will be used as weapons anyone who violates their version of religion. At the same time Conservatives in Congress also continued to elevate the millionaires and billionaires to demigod status.

Few would deny that Evangelical Christians control most if not all religious conversations among Conservatives, but that was even more apparent on the Saturday before Thanksgiving when the Iowa-based, ultra-Conservative religious group, The Family Leader, hosted a round-table discussion with six of the most prominent Republican Presidential candidates. Prior to the start of the two-hour event, organizers spent 45 minutes outlining their plan for national domination by controlling who will be elected to a political office.

Groups like The Family Leader, Focus on the Family, and The Truth Project hope to create a “worldview” in the United States that uses local, state, and federal laws as their weapons to enforce their mythological beliefs on all citizens. It was hard to argue with their ability to control Conservative politics with six Republican candidates at their beck and call.

Paul Kiser

Conservatives have worked to pass laws that denied equal rights to Gay Americans, created impossible building codes for women’s health clinics that honored a woman’s freewill, and define birth control as murder. The Iowa event made it clear that Republican Presidential candidates have nothing but praise and support to groups who seek to replace fair government with interpretive mythology.

After the event, Conservative Presidential candidate Rick Perry joined Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum in signing The Family Leader’s Pledge to Marriage. The vow that implies that being Gay is a learned behavior (presumably that can be deprogrammed,) that African-Americans were better parents when they were slaves, and demands the candidate commit to 14 points, including an Amendment to the United States Constitution that forbids legal Gay marriage, and a rejection of Sharia Islam law.

Conservative's Deity: Wealth

In the same week Conservatives offered the economy of the United States as a sacrifice to the richest Americans by rejecting any plan to secure America’s future that would include a restoration of tax revenue from those who owe the most to this country for their wealth. Despite Conservative attempts to spin it as the fault of the Democrats, the simple fact is that there was only one issue that kept Congress from creating a solution to America’s current and future debt issue and that is imposing fair taxes on those with incomes over $1 million a year.

This week appointed Senator Dean Heller from Nevada joined in the worship of the rich by authoring Senate Bill 1931 (S.1931) which proposes legislation to temporarily extend tax cuts for middle and lower incomes by taking jobs and money from some of the very people the temporary tax cuts are supposed to benefit. Heller, a former Bank of America consultant and stockbroker who, according to the Las Vegas Sun, is worth between $2.5 and $11 million, offered the new law in order to shelter the wealthy, including himself, from the Democrats proposal that would re-establish some of the tax revenue that was cut during the Bush administration.

As an apparent joke to the wealthy and an insult to those who are not, Heller included provisions in the bill that millionaires; 1) could, if they felt like it, donate money to the United States Treasury to lower America’s debt, 2) would not be able to collect unemployment nor food stamps (we allow millionaires to collect unemployment and food stamps now?), and 3) make them pay more for Medicare, assuming they can’t afford private health insurance. All three provisions are symbolic gestures that pale in comparison to the jobs and wages lost by the rest of Senate Bill 1931.

Conservatives point to the Bible as their rationale for everything they do. The Bible says,

“Again I say to you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.”
Matthew 19:24

It seems Conservatives like Senator Dean Heller, who scored a perfect 100% favorable rating from the Christian Coalition of America, are unconcerned about what the Bible says.

A version of this article first published as
Conservatives Weaponize Religion, Worship Wealthy

on Technorati.com

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New Religion For Business: Believing in the ‘L’ Word

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Paul Kiser

For a hundred years the Church of the Big Sell has preached to enterprise decision-makers that they will give a voice to their company…for a price. Media chieftains told the world of business that the customer is a commodity that can be manipulated and controlled with the right ad campaign, the right slogan, the right spokesperson, or the right look. Then came Social Media.

Social Media has put a lot of business traditionalists in a tailspin. It turns out that the customer is not a commodity and they hate it when they are treated like one (e.g.; Netflix, United Airlines, Bank of America, etc.) Customers  are people and they have feelings, wants, likes, and dislikes.

Facebook and Twitter gave the people fire and they liked it. Now the customer has a voice and they use it. They talk. They converse. They express. They judge. Not only do they have a voice, they now have the power to turn off advertising…and they do.

The Church of the Big Sell is burning and the voice they were supposed to give to business is wasted on ads in newspapers and magazines that nobody reads, radio and television commercials that nobody listens to or watches, and yellow pages books that go from the front doorstep to the recycling bin…unused. Social Media took away the microphone of enterprise because people are tired of being preached to by the Church of the Big Sell.

Business is realizing that customer interaction has changed. Enterprise in a Social Media world is not about talking, but about listening. Listening is the alpha and omega of the Social Media world. Almost everything a business needs to know is there, if they listen. A new church is being built on the ashes of the old and the religion is based on the ‘L’ word.

Listening is not as easy as it sounds (pun intended.) Social Media is noisy. Too many voices, too many issues. A restaurant owner does not need to know that Emily had a great date last night…unless Emily’s date was at his restaurant. Then he might want to know that Emily’s date was great despite her eating experience, where the food was cold, the parking a pain, and the service rude. The restaurant owner might also want to know that nine of Emily’s friends responded to her Tweet by agreeing that his restaurant sucks and they will never eat there again.

Rob Bailey - Head of US Operations and new CEO of DataSift

Tools of Listening in the New Church of Social Meda
Paring down the noise of Social Media is a major challenge for a business and the new religion has new tools. “The amount of Social Media that people are producing is doubling every year…,” explained Rob Bailey, who is the head of United States Operations for DataSift, a Social Media filtering platform for business that was launched last week. Bailey said that there are three steps in refining raw Social Media into relevant information for any enterprise.

The first step is to refine the data down to what is being posted about an organization, subject, or topic. That refinement may require multiple filters to distill out undesired spam, retweets, and other noise. The second step is to analyze the results based on factors such as age, gender, geographic location, and sentiment. The final step is to have a visual tool that reports the results simply and accurately for interpretation by the decision-maker in the company.

Nick Halstead - Past CEO and now Chief Technology Officer

DataSift had 8,000 users in the alpha test of its Social Media monitoring platform and found that the interest in this technology spanned a wide variety of industries. CEO Nick Halstead said that they had, “… government agencies to pharmaceuticals, a lot in finance, a lot in retail…and quite a few start-ups…” interested in DataSift’s technology to monitor issues of concern to their business and organizational operations. Another industry that wants to be able the monitor the Social Media are News Outlets that are trying to compete with Twitter and Facebook in providing events in real-time. Bailey said, “Twitter is an incredible vehicle…” for finding out what is going on in the world.

Public Relations and Social Media firms are also using tools to filter out the Social Media noise for companies who would rather hire an outside service for their Social Media presence rather than doing it in-house. In addition to listening to the Social Media these agencies help a business identify and correct their public image by handling public image issues and concerns for the organization.

View of data stream screen

The tools of the new platform allow the user to search multiple Social Media formats and have access to the full Twitter worldwide database in real-time. Beyond listening to what is being said about a company’s public image, they can now test market products or services and use Social Media to determine the reaction. The platform also has an interesting application in politics by allowing campaigns to determine sentiments on key issues by geographic region before a candidate campaigns in that area.

Improved customer response is probably the most obvious benefit to listening to Social Media, as a business can now pick up any post written about their company, product, or service and appropriately respond in minutes with a thank you for positive comments and a resolution or apology for negative experiences.

There is no turning back. Social Media demands that enterprise be great listeners and now they have no excuse.

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Are We Missing an Ice Age? (Part III of III)

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PART III – Should We Be In An Ice Age Now? 

IMAGE 1.0 - The Northern Hemisphere at the end of the last Ice Age (10,000 years ago)

RECAP: In Part I of this series, we looked at how scientists have determined that Earth has experienced regular cycles of cold climates followed by brief periods of warm climates during the last 400,000 years. We learned that the current cycle has been different because the warm period has persisted when past warm climates have rapidly dropped back into a cold climate. We also discussed how the Sun acts as a ‘battery charger’ for Earth’s climate.

Part II of the series explained that Earth’s orbital relationship with the Sun also follows a cyclic pattern and that almost 100 years ago, a Serbian named Milutin Milanković  proposed possible mechanisms related to Earth’s tilt and orbit that could be the root cause of the regular cycle of Ice Ages.

PART III – Should We Be In An Ice Age Now?

No one can say for certain whether or not that we should be in an Ice Age today. Past Warm Ages have typically collapsed back into a cooler period within a few thousand years followed by a complete return to an Ice Age within about 10,000 years. If Earth past climate history is correct then our planet should be in a cooling period, if not into a full-scale Ice Age. Instead, Earth is warming. The Milankovitch Cycles don’t all concur on this issue, but there is some intriguing evidence that suggests we have missed a cooling period based on Earth’s orbit and tilt. 

Consider the factors discussed in Part II of this series.

Orbit Eccentricity or Circular to Ellipse
Our orbit eccentricity is about one-third the way from our lowest level, meaning Earth’s orbit is becoming more circular. It’s cycle is about the same as Earth’s climate cycle, so it could be a significant factor. Interestingly, the eccentric peak of .02 during the current cycle was half to one-third of the peak past three cycles (.04 to .06.)¹ Could that be a factor in the prolonged warm period? Possibly, but why? Earth just passed the peak a few thousand years ago so, does a low peak eccentricity result in a prolonged Warm Age?

Paul Kiser

Obliquity or Earth’s Tilt On Its Axis
Earth is about halfway between our high and low peak tilt angles.  Our planet’s tilt, or obliquity is on an approximate 41,000 year cycle, so we were just passing through our highest peak obliquity at the start of this Warm Period. If high tilt angle is a trigger for a Warm Age, then we should be cooling down, unless obliquity must be coupled with another factor to trigger a cooling period.

Axial Precession or Earth’s Wobble
Earth’s axis wobbles and it takes 26, 000 years to complete one cycle. It is hard to see a connection with the slow regression of the seasons and Earth’s climate, but perhaps the cycle of axial precession couples with another factor to trigger a cooling period, or sustain a Warm Age.

IMAGE 1.1 - Apsidal Precession - The Creep of the Seasons in Earth's Orbit

Apsidal Precession or The Hulu Hoop Effect
Apsidal precession is factor has some interesting possibilities on how it might impact Earth’s climate. Currently the Summer in the northern hemisphere occurs when Earth is farthest from the Sun (aphelion.) Our closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) occurs during Summer in the southern hemisphere.

IMAGE 1.2 Land Masses in the Northern Hemisphere

IMAGE 1.3 - Land Masses in the Southern Hemisphere

Earth’s northern hemisphere is about 40% land and 60% water. The southern hemisphere is about 20% land and 80% water. Land that is not covered with ice absorbs more energy than water because water reflects more of Sun’s energy back into space. In Part II we learned that the hemisphere that is in summer during perihelion receives 23% more solar radiation. Because of the greater land mass, the northern hemisphere will retain more of the summer Sun’s energy in 10,000 years (when perihelion occurs in July) than the southern hemisphere does currently.

From a standpoint of apsidal precession, Earth should be in the coldest period since we are closest to the Sun when the smallest percentage of our land mass will absorb the energy or insolation

Orbital Inclination
The tilt of Earth’s orbital plane off of the invariable plane is on a 100,000 year cycle, which coincides with Earth’s climate cycle. Since  higher angles of our orbital plane result in a higher obliquity and magnify the effect of land mass absorption differential between the two hemispheres, it could be a factor in triggering the Ice/Warm Age cycles; however, it is unclear how this factor could contribute to the prolonged warm period.

Are We Missing an Ice Age?
Earth’s climate cycle does not follow a perfect 100,000 year pattern. Most people would be happy if we never went into another Ice Age; however, if we have missed the trigger of the next Ice Age, what does that mean for our climate? Will Earth’s delicate climate balance be ruined leading into a runaway warm period or will the next Ice Age come in a rapid onset like in a disaster movie?

The Sun charges Earth’s climate ‘battery’ and variations in how much solar radiation our planet absorbs dramatically affects the environment for all life. It will be important for scientists to discover what is happening to our climate and why. Life on Earth exists in a narrow band that is not to cold and not to hot and we have no practical methods to reinforce or siphon off the Sun’s energy in a crisis.

While scientists to continue to examine this issue there are other issues that should be considered beyond climate. At least for the past 400,000 years, the Warm Ages have been relatively brief periods. It is during those brief periods of warmth that life has flourished, then the Earth has been cleansed with the next Ice Age. What will happen as insects, reptiles, and bacteria continue to  evolve and expand without an Ice Age to push back their spread across the globe? Is it possible that too much life will threaten human existence?

These are all questions that have to be answered as long as the Earth continues to avoid the next Ice Age.

PART I – Should We Be In An Ice Age Now?

PART II – Understanding the Milankovitch Cycles, Clues to Earth’s Climate Changes

NOTES AND REFERENCES

¹Wikipedia – The Free Encyclopedia. (2011). Milankovitch Cycles. Retrieved November 13, 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles.

IMAGE CREDITS

IMAGE  1.0 – Image thanks to http://www.space4case.com/mmw/pages/space4case/solar-system/earth/artic.php

IMAGE 1.1 – Image thanks to Wikimedia Commons at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Precession_and_seasons.jpg

IMAGE 1.2 – Image thanks to http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/humm/WhyComeGlobalGame.html

IMAGE 1.3 – Image thanks to http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/humm/WhyComeGlobalGame.html

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Are We Missing an Ice Age? (PART II of III)

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PART II – Understanding the Milankovitch Cycles, Clues to Earth’s Climate Changes 

RECAP: In Part I of this series, we looked at how scientists have determined that Earth has experienced regular cycles of cold climates followed by brief periods of warm climates during the last 400,000 years. We learned that the current cycle has been different because the warm period has persisted when past warm climates have rapidly dropped back into a cold climate. We also discussed how the Sun acts as a ‘battery charger’ for Earth’s climate.

Milutin Milanković  proposed possible mechanisms related to Earth’s tilt and orbit that could be the root cause of the regular cycle of Ice Ages. His theory, outlined in several papers from 1912 to 1920, is now referred to as the Milankovitch Cycles¹. This theory outlines four factors that change the amount of solar radiation received by the Sun, which could explain why Earth experiences dramatic changes in its climate over a 100,000 year cycle. In addition, there is a fifth factor that has been added to the Milankovitch Cycle theory, which also follows a 100,000 year cycle and may also be contributing triggering our Ice/Warm Age cycles.

FACTOR ONE
Eccentricity or Earth’s Orbit – From a Circle to Oval and Back

IMAGE 1.0 -Earth's Orbit: High Eccentricity vs. Low Eccentricity

Earth’s orbit changes from a nearly perfect circle, to an oval (technically, an ellipse) over a period of thousands of years. The cause of this elongation or eccentricity of our orbit is due to the gravity influences of Jupiter and Saturn, which are much farther away from the Earth than the Sun, but exert enough pull to periodically stretch our orbit out of its circular shape.

In an orbit that is a perfect circle the amount of energy the Earth receives is relatively constant throughout the year, assuming the Sun is generating a constant amount of energy (which it doesn’t.) However, when Earth’s orbit is an ellipse (or more eccentric) the Earth receives more energy when it is closer to the Sun than when it is farther away.

Paul Kiser

Earth’s orbit eccentricity varies from .005 (low) to .058 (high) and the cycle of low to high eccentricity is roughly 100,000 years. Our orbit had major peak eccentricities of .04 to .06 at approximately 120, 220, 320 thousand years ago. These peaks fall about 10,000 to 20,000 years before the start of the last three Warm Ages.

Currently the eccentricity of our orbit is .017 and it is falling from a minor peak of about .02. That means that Earth’s orbit is about one-third the way from our lowest eccentricity and becoming more circular. The eccentricity of Earth’s current orbit creates about a three million mile difference between its closest and farthest approach to the Sun. Earth at perihelion (closest to the Sun) is 91.4 million miles away from the Sun. At aphelion the Earth is 94.5 million miles away.

FACTOR TWO
Obliquity or the Severity of Earth’s Tilt

Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from the Sun’s orbital plane, but that is not constant. The Earth’s tilt or obliquity is decreasing from the high obliquity (tilt angle) of 24.4° towards the low of 22.1º. It will take Earth about 10,000 years to reach the low point in a 41,000 year cycle.

For comparison, Mars’ current obliquity is 25.19° and varies from 10° to 40° over hundreds of thousands of years. Venus’ obliquity is 177.4°, which means that the planet is so tilted that its ‘north’ is facing south. That may seem strange to have an obliquity greater than 90°; however, since Venus’ rotation is retrograde (Venus turns in the opposite direction of Earth) scientists consider its ‘up’ side to have been literally turned upside down.

IMAGE 1.1 - Tilt or Obliquity of the '8' Planets and Pluto

Higher obliquity is believed to result in the Earth absorbing more solar radiation (insolation) because the higher latitudes receive more sunshine in the summer. Earth’s current Warm Age began at about the same time as our peak obliquity, so there is evidence that this theory is valid.

FACTOR THREE
Axial Precession or Earth’s Wobble

Image 1.2 - Earth's Wobble is called Axial Precession

Currently the north pole, or axis, points towards the star called Polaris. That is temporary because the Earth wobbles. This wobble is called the Axial Precession. Over time our north axis will no longer be aimed at Polaris, but instead will leave us without a ‘North Star’ until Earth’s north axis points to Vega, Deneb, or another bright star or galaxy.

It takes about 26,000 years for the wobble to complete one full cycle and during that cycle the Earth’s wobble will cause a slow change in the seasons. This is because the axis wobble alters the direction of our tilt during every orbit of the Sun. When the Earth returns to the same relative position in its orbit, the axis will point to a slightly different place than it did the prior year. The axis will have reached that point earlier, so our seasons slowly move backward.

FACTOR FOUR
Apsidal Precession or The Hula Hoop Effect

IMAGE 1.3 - This graphic shows Apsidal Precession (Click to Activate)

One of the more interesting factors is Apsidal Precession. If you think of Earth’s orbit as a hula hoop and your waist as the Sun (no, it’s not that big,) as the hula hoop goes around, the ‘orbit’ shifts. Any particular point on the hula hoop will move from being closest to your waist and then it will shift to be the farthest away from you waist. Our seasons do the same thing as Earth’s orbit slowly shifts or precesses.

Currently, summer in the northern hemisphere occurs when the Earth is the farthest away (aphelion) and in winter we are closest to the Sun (perihelion.) In the southern hemisphere it is exactly opposite. During the summer in the southern hemisphere (Earth at perihelion) it receives 23% more solar radiation than the northern hemisphere does during its summer, which occurs at the aphelion. It takes about 21,000 years for the Apsidal Precession to cause the seasons to make a full cycle, so in about 10,000 years, the northern hemisphere will experience summer at perihelion. 

FACTOR FIVE
Orbital Inclination or Our Orbits Tilt From the Orbital Plane

IMAGE 1.4 - Earth's Orbital Plane from the Solar Systems Invariable Plane

By averaging the orbits of the eight planets scientists have created one plane that is considered the invariable plane. Jupiter is almost on this invariable plane; however, Earth and the other six planet’s orbital planes are tilted or inclined from the invariable plane.

Not only is Earth’s orbital inclination 1.57° off the invariable plane, the amount of tilt changes on a cycle that repeats every 100,000 years. Earth’s variance during that cycle can be as much as 3° off the invariable plane, which is additive to Earth’s obliquity or tilt on its axis. That means that increased orbital inclination magnifies the effect of Earth’s obliquity.

This factor was not part of Milankovic’s original theory; however, scientists have added it to the Milankovitch Cycle because it impacts the amount of insolation the Earth receives and because it follows the 100,000 year cycle.

In Part II, we have discussed five cyclical factors that change the amount of insolation the Earth receives and where Earth is in all five cycles. In Part III we look at how Earth’s climate seems to be on a hair-trigger and why we should or should not be in an Ice Age now.

PART I – Are We Missing An Ice Age?

PART III – Should We Be In An Ice Age Now?

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NOTES AND REFERENCES

¹Wikipedia – The Free Encyclopedia. (2011). Milankovitch Cycles. Retrieved November 13, 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles.

IMAGE CREDITS

IMAGE 1.0 – Image thanks to http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter16/mil_cycles.html

IMAGE 1.1 – Image Copyright 1999 by Calvin J. Hamilton. Found at http://www.solarviews.com/cap/misc/obliquity.htm 

IMAGE 1.2 – Image thanks to http://tomsastroblog.com/archives/8047

IMAGE 1.3 – Graphic thanks to Wikimedia Commons at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Precessing_Kepler_orbit_280frames_e0.6_smaller.gif

Support Wikipedia

Are We Missing an Ice Age? (Part I)

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There is no doubt that Earth has a fairly consistent cycle of Ice Ages followed by interglacials, or Warm Ages. Using physical geologic evidence of the last Ice Age, and by analyzing and comparing ice cores, ocean sediment cores, and other samples that preserve air and climate data within them, scientists have an understanding of Earth’s overall climate back for over 400,000 years.

GRAPH 1.0 - Vostok Ice Core Data

There is a pattern to the data that suggests an approximate 100,000 year cycle that includes a 90,000 year cold period (Ice Age) followed by a brief 10,000 year warm period (Warm Age.) While this cycle can vary, the fact is that we have been in a Warm Age for over 10,000 years. Another unusual aspect of the current pattern is that typically the Warm Age rises to a sudden peak followed by a fairly rapid cooling period. The current Warm Age suddenly began and peaked about 11,000 years ago. The Earth has stayed relatively warm, and is in fact, continuing to get warmer.

The question is, are we missing an Ice Age?

GRAPH 1.0 is the data from the Vostok Station ice cores in the Antarctica. The top (blue line) graph indicates the trending air temperature, the middle graph (green line) indicates CO² levels trapped in the ice, and the bottom graph (red line) indicates the dust found in the ice samples. Note that present day is on the left side of all of the graphs and to the right is going farther back in time. Ice core data is not precise because of several factors; however, the data indicates the conditions within a 6,000 year margin of error.

The data indicates that there was a sudden warming starting at about 15, 140, 245, and 330 thousand years ago. The CO² has similar peaks but lags behind the temperature increases by 200 to 600 years. Dust seems to also correlate with the temperature variations, but whether low dust causes warmer temperatures, or warmer temperature cause a cleaning of atmosphere by increased rain, is unknown.

Paul Kiser

The consistency of the cycles indicates that there is some mechanism that drives the cold/warm periods which would be difficult to explain using Earth-bound causes. Volcanic periods, plate tectonics, ocean currents and other activities on Earth that might influence our climate don’t seem to have cycles that could be matched to the ice core data; however, there are exo-mechanisms (outside of Earth) that could help to explain the Ice/Warm Age cycles.

Earth as a Battery
Everyone knows that the Earth warms in the Spring and Summer and cools in the Fall and Winter. The reasons for this are due to Earth’s 23.5° tilt as we orbit around the Sun (SEE:  23.5 Degrees = Seasons on Earth.) Based on our firsthand experiences, it might be easy to believe that the Earth’s relationship to the Sun, outside of the annual march of the seasons, is relatively constant; however, it is not.

Earth’s orbit and tilt change over time and there is a significant difference in how much of the Sun’s energy (solar radiation) that Earth receives based on its relative position with the Sun. This is important because the energy our planet receives from the Sun is like a battery charger for our climate. When Earth absorbs more energy, the battery charges and we have a warmer, more active climate. When the Earth absorbs less energy, it cools and our climate reacts accordingly.

There are multiple factors that change Earth’s position in relationship to the Sun. Almost 100 years ago, Serbian geophysicist and civil engineer, Milutin Milanković noted these astronomical variations and suggested a theory of climate change based on these factors now known as the Milankovitch Cycles. In Part II of this series we will learn about the changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt that result in variation of the amount of solar radiation our planet receives. In Part III we will discuss Earth’s current status in the Milankovitch Cycle and why we may be overdue for an ice age.

PART II – Understanding the Milankovitch Cycles, Clues to Earth’s Climate Changes

PART III – Should We Be In An Ice Age Now?

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If You’re a Conservative in Alabama, You Just Might Be a Racist

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Paul Kiser

Racism is not a ‘card’ to be played, nor is it something that a person absolves themselves from by saying, “I’m not a racist!” Racism is determined by the act(s) of a person and one single act can reveal subconscious or hidden attitudes of a person or group of people who betray their desire to put other races down and keep them there.

Alabama doesn’t have a great record when it comes to racism. The State has a history of implementing laws to obstruct, intimidate, and harass minorities in order to retain the power of government in the hands of white men. When that was ruled illegal by higher authorities, white men used terrorism tactics to suppress and/or drive African-Americans out of Alabama. This was done with the blessing of the State government that enacted laws, and when necessary, involved the Governor and State Police to force minorities to comply.

There you go playing the Racism card

The tactics were effective. African-Americans consisted of almost half (47.7%) of the population of Alabama in 1870. It declined until the 1970 census when the African-American population was down to almost one-quarter (26.2%.) 

But all that is in the past. The racial violence of the 1960’s is all over and everything is better in the South. White men no longer have a need to target minorities with laws that harass and intimidate. Governors in Alabama do not support laws that target a certain race, nor enforce laws intended to obstruct, harass, nor intimidate them. Racism is not the way of the New South.

So, this past June, why did Alabama pass the toughest immigration law (House Bill 56 – 2011) in the country that targets Hispanics and anyone associated with them? Hispanics only consisted of 3.9% of the Alabama’s population in the 2010 census, which was up from 1.7% in the 2000 census. Could the new law that harasses and intimidates anyone who even looks Hispanic be a response to their population doubling in ten years?

The law was sponsored by 25 Republicans in the Alabama House of Representatives. All 58 Republicans in the House voted for the bill along with 9 Democrats. One Democrat voting for the bill, Representative Pebblin Warren told me that her vote was misreported and that she voted ‘Nay.’ Of the other eight Democrats who voted ‘Aye,’ five has since changed parties and are now Republicans. Those five are Representatives Alan C. Boothe, Lynn Greer, Steve Hurst, Mike Millican, and Lesley Vance.  Below are pictures the 63 Republicans and the 3 Democrats who voted for HB – 56:

Alabama Representatives Voting For HB -56

In the Alabama Senate, all but one Republican voted for the bill along with five Democrats. Below are the pictures of the 20 Republicans and 5 Democrats who voted in favor of the immigration reform bill:

Alabama Senators Who Voted For HB - 56

If the ethnic background of the politicians behind this law seem to lack diversity, they do.  The lone African-American who voted for the law, Senator Rodger Smitherman, is confusing because the month before the vote he was quoted as saying:

“We’re going back to some day we don’t want to see, where people can be pulled out of a car because they look like somebody,” 

I contacted a member of his staff to determine if he intended to have his vote recorded in favor of HB – 56; however, he has not responded by the time this was published. Regardless, this bill that targeted one race was proposed and passed almost exclusively by white, conservative politicians.

The final player in this saga is Governor Robert Bentley.  

Alabama Governor Robert Bentley

It seems that ‘Happy Days’ of the Old South are back.

This article first published as
If You’re a Conservative in Alabama, You Just Might Be a Racist
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Alabama Politicians Who Voted For the Immigration Law HB – 56

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These pictures are part of the article:

If You’re a Conservative in Alabama, You  Just Might Be Racist

Alabama House of Representatives Who Voted For HB – 56

63 Republicans and 3 Democrats (Five Democrats Changed Parties After They Voted For HB -56)

Alabama Senators Who Voted For HB – 56

20 Republicans and 5 Democrats

Wristwatches Tell Age As Well As Time

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Paul Kiser

Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend (‘fall back’ at 2:00 AM this Sunday) and the man who reaches for his wristwatch to set it for Standard Time is likely to be over 40…or 50…or 60.

With the invention of the cell phone, the need for the wristwatch has become a piece of a 107 year-old technology that young men often see as unnecessary and outdated. For the cell phone dependent male, time is as close as the phone display and it is always accurate and updates itself when the user changes time zones, or time changes to and from Daylight Saving Time.

A Sign of the "Time"

Mike, who is under 40 and doesn’t own a wristwatch, states:

…only time it’s “cool” is if you are dressing fancy and need to be a little more classy than checking your phone for the time…

James, who is over 40, says:

Most of my life I preferred pocket watches but since I started running/biking I needed a stopwatch function…

A man who wears a watch is noticed by the opposite sex.  Kayla, who is under 40, may have expressed the sentiment of many women when she said:

I like the look of wristwatches on men, but they are becoming a bit outdated….

Kayla goes on to say that she has seen men who are wearing a watch pull out their cell phone to check the time rather than look at their wrist, which supports the theory that wristwatches are more for fashion than function.

In a bar in Golden, Colorado, four young men sitting together were asked if they wore a wristwatch and all said “no.” When asked why, they indicated that their cell phone was their time piece of choice. At the same bar, two men who were over 40 and wearing wristwatches were discussing an expensive Rolex model that one of them hoped to buy. The value of wristwatches seems to clearly be correlated to the age of the man.

Perhaps those who became reliant on wristwatches before there were cellphones continue to be attached to the idea of a wristwatch even though technology has made them obsolete. Whatever the reason, a wristwatch seems to become a generational indicator as well as a time keeper.

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Wristwatches Tell Age As Well As Time
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9 Most Violent States In the U.S. of the Past Decade

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Paul Kiser

South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, New Mexico, Maryland, Nevada, Louisiana, Delaware, and Alaska are America’s most violent States¹ during the last ten years according to FBI statistics². Violent crime is on the decline in most States; however, these nine have averaged over 600 violent crimes per every 100,000 in population in the last decade. There is an 85 point gap between the tenth highest State (Illinois) and ninth ranked Alaska, which is a significant separation considering that there is only a 116 point spread among the top nine (see TABLE 2.0.)

Graph 1.0 - The 10 Most Violent States of the Past 10 Years and other example States

The good news is that five of the of the top nine States have made major progress in decreasing violent crime during the last ten years. Florida dropped almost 255 points from its 2001 rate to its 2010 rate. Maryland and New Mexico dropped 235 and 192 points respectively. South Carolina and Louisiana both dropped over 100 points during the decade.

Four States still had rates in 2010 that were over 600 violent crimes per 100,000. Two of those States (Delaware and Tennessee) have made little progress over the decade and the other two (Nevada and Alaska) have lost ground from where they were in 2001.

Table 2.0 - 10 Year Violent Crime Averages (per 100,000 pop.)

Nevada began the decade with a violent crime rate below California’s, but the rate jumped in 2006, peaked in 2007, and has slowly declined. Despite the decline, the significant drop of other high ranked States has placed Nevada as the most violent State for the last two years.

Graph 1.0 shows the average violent crime rates over the last ten years for the eleven highest ranking States, plus five other States that are representative of borderline, middle, and low ranking States. Two of the eleven highest ranking (Illinois and California) were ranking relatively high in 2001, but dropped rapidly during the first three years of the decade and ended up with violent crime rates that were just over the United States average.

NOTES

¹ The District of Columbia was excluded from this report as it is not a State and is more representative of an urban area.

²The violent crime statistics are from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, Table 4, years 2001-2010. The information can be found at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr.

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Nine Most Violent States of the Past Decade
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Muller: “global warming….why you should not be a skeptic”

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Paul Kiser

On October 21, Dr. Richard Muller published an article in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) presenting the results of a two-year exhaustive study of the world temperature records using multiple methods to verify the data. The verdict, global warming is real and the skeptics are wrong.

This was news because Dr. Muller, a physics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, has been one of the ‘legitimate scientists’ that skeptics have relied on to support their position that global warming is a myth. This startling announcement was largely ignored by the news media until Jon Stewart had a field day with the announcement on his October 26 episode of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Since airing, several other news media outlets have picked up the story, including MSNBC, and The Huffington Post.

Richard Muller says it's real

Part of the lack of awareness is partially due to Dr. Muller spending the first half (516 out of 1009 total words) of his Op Ed piece restating why he thinks people should be skeptical of global warming. Since most people don’t read past the first few paragraphs it was easy for the heart of his announcement to remain buried in the last half of the article where he finally states:

…But now let me explain why you should not be a skeptic, at least not any longer.

Conservatives, who are consistent skeptics of global warming, have accused scientists of almost every type of conspiracy and evil motivation in order to throw a blanket of doubt on legitimate, scientific research which have uncovered a significant change in Earth’s climate. On the Daily Show’s episode, Stewart shows clips of Texas Governor and presidential candidate, Rick Perry accusing, “a substantial number of scientists…” of “…manipulating the data…” in order to get funding for their projects. On the same show, a comical interview of Republican Strategist Noelle Nikpour has her stoically accusing scientists of making up data “…for their own finanshual (sic) gain…” and adds that “every American…would have a gut feeling…” that scientific data is wrong.

Muller’s analysis is part of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study and is a review of the scientific data used to determine whether the average surface temperatures (historical and present day) are reliable. The study received $150,000 from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, associated with the Koch brothers, who made their money in the oil industry. The study also received $100,000 from both the William K. Bowes Foundation and a foundation established by Bill Gates. 

In the WSJ article Muller explains:

…When we began our study, we felt that skeptics had raised legitimate issues, and we didn’t know what we’d find. Our results turned out to be close to those published by prior groups. We think that means that those groups had truly been very careful in their work, despite their inability to convince some skeptics of that.

Will this quiet the skeptics? Probably not, but facts don’t usually get in the way of people in denial.

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Muller: “global warming…why  you should not be a skeptic”
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5 Reasons Why Ignoring Negative Social Media is a Career Ender for a VP of Customer Service

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Paul Kiser

Despite the overwhelming evidence of the impact of Social Media on the perceived public image of a business, many Customer Service (CS) and Public Relations (PR) executives still handle negative Social Media (blogs, Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare, Yelp, etc.) by ignoring the bad publicity. One can only marvel at the rationale of an executive team in the 21st century, which believes that avoidance behavior of PR problems in the Social Media environment is the best policy.

I would suggest that there are four reasons for this philosophy, which are as follows:

Bad Social Media PR is Bad for Business

  • An outmoded understanding and/or denial of Social Media and its long-term impact on the company’s public image.
  • A belief that negative statements in the Social Media have no cumulative effect and that they will disappear over time.
  • An arrogance by the executives of a corporation that they control their public image by what they say and do and by the money they spend on advertising, not by what individuals outside the company say about them.
  • A belief that by giving attention to someone with a complaint about their company will cause more problems and possibly force the company to admit to their stupidity.
There are five reasons why ignoring negative Social Media is a bad idea and why the CS and PR executives who follow this policy have an expiration date on their careers:
  1. A negative Social Media comment is forever. It doesn’t fade and it doesn’t go away.
  2. A negative blog can and will be found by any Google search of your company. Why would a CS or PR executive let people who search for their company be exposed to everything said by the people who hate you?
  3. Bad comments on Social Media are cumulative. When someone is mad at your company they will search to find other people who feel the same way, and then you have a movement of people who are united against your company.
  4. Waiting to address bad publicity only makes a company look like they are hiding something when they finally do publicly address the issue, which is a lose, lose, loser in damage control.
  5. Once a company wakes up and realizes that ignoring bad PR is a stupid idea, how long will the implementor of that policy have before the company seeks someone who is smarter about handling negative Social Media?

A negative Social Media comment about a company is an opportunity. Everyone knows that major corporations are monitoring the Social Media, so when someone makes a negative comment they know that someone in the company is reading it. A company that contacts the author of the complaint to show concern will, at the very least, prove that the company appreciates its customers. By, 1) addressing the reason for the complaint and, 2) making some tangible effort to offer a reward to the person for bringing the issue to the company’s attention, the complainer will likely become a positive voice for the company’s public image and may even delete the negative blog or comment.

Companies, and their executives, who fail to address negative Social Media comments are risking their future. Netflix and United Airlines are just two examples of corporations that have done too little too late to address public image issues in the Social Media and they are paying the price. How many companies have to become a joke to their customers, investors, and the public before they realize the mistake they are making by ignoring Social Media?

Satan’s Board Meeting

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Paul Kiser

Nervously they waited for ‘The One.’ Cain was visibly nervous as he shifted in his chair. Sweat was trickling down his face and his expression kept changing from a smile to a frown and back again. With the exception of Bachmann, all the other people gathered seemed to fill the air with a growing tension, as if something really bad were about to happen to one or more of them. Bachmann smiled as she looked around the room. She was the only one who seemed happy to be at the table.

Good morning, Sir!

Bachmann leaned forward and put both hands on the table as she caught Satan’s eye and she gave him a flirtatious look and a wink…

Satan briskly entered the room trailed by Limbaugh and Murdoch. Everyone stood up at his entrance into the Board Room. Bachmann leaned forward and put both hands on the table as she caught Satan’s eye and she gave him a flirtatious look and a wink, to which Satan just gave her a nod. Bachmann had hoped for more. Cain managed to smile and spill out, “Good morning, Sir…,” and then quickly looked down as he was ignored. Satan reached the head of the table and smiled and said, “Sit, sit, …no need to be formal here among friends.” The group breathed a heavy collective sigh and all relaxed into their chairs.

"I told them we should tax the poor!"

“Are you with us or not?” asked Satan. Romney’s words stumbled out, “ya.., yes, Yes, of course…ALWAYS!”

“Gentlemen,” Satan began. Bachmann might have taken offense, but she couldn’t decide if he had singled her out of the rest of the group as an honor, or if he was just ignoring her, so she just decided to pout a little. Satan continued, “We are making great progress, but we are not there yet.” Satan paused for effect. The room stopped breathing. “Mitt!” The words caused Romney to snap his head toward the dominant presence in the room. “Are you with us or not?” asked Satan. Romney’s words stumbled out, “ya.., yes, Yes, of course…ALWAYS!” Romney tried to smile, but it didn’t quite look right. Satan continued in a low voice, “I’m just not feeling the love, Mitt.” Romney face looked pained as he said, “How could you say that?…I’m Mormon for devil’s sake!…We have millions of people believing that Jesus came to America and that God gave us a book on golden plates! What more can you ask?”

Satan's not feeling the love from Mitt

Satan smirked, “That’s yesterday’s news, Mitt.  What have you done for me lately?” Mitt looked down. Satan continued, “Herman has come up with a plan that will put more of a tax burden on his employees and less on him. Ricky has a similar plan that will make millionaires richer and the working class take up their slack…this is what I’m talking about!” “I’ve also called for an electrified fence to keep the Mexican Catholics out of America!”, Cain blurted out. Bachmann followed quickly, “I said we need to make the poor pay taxes!” “Yes Herman, your efforts to pit Christians against Christians are noted. Michelle, please remember you’re only here for entertainment,” replied Satan. Herman beamed as Bachmann returned to pouting.

Satan continued, “People, remember our goal! America, is the biggest threat to my domination of the world. Everyone wants the freedom, independence, and prosperity that Americans enjoy and while we have made progress in killing this dream we are far from claiming victory. The world needs to see that America is just another failed republic. A place of despair and fear where people intentionally sabotage the dreams of their neighbors.

Ten years ago today we were able to take away the American right of unwarranted suspicion and covert investigation with the Patriot Act, ….heh, heh,…I still get a kick out of that name, …but that was only one victory. We have to crush free-thinking with our thinking, and what is our thinking?”

“CONSERVATIVE,” answered everyone in unison.

…Satan turned to Boehner and said, “John, you have done well to kill that hope by blocking every move to restore America’s economy, but now we must crush the American spirit once and for all.

“Exactly,” said Satan. “We must continue to destroy the American economy by tearing down the very thing that keeps it running, the government. Once we have weakened the government sufficiently we can let greed run rampant. No one can stop us once the government is made impotent.

We almost had it all wrapped up in 2008, but then Obama came along and everyone had…,” Satan’s expression changed to look like he had just tasted dog poop, “…hope.” Satan turned to Boehner and said, “John, you have done well to kill that hope by blocking every move to restore America’s economy, but now we must crush the American spirit once and for all. We need more distraction to keep the liberals off balance. Talk about more anti-abortion laws, Christians always love it when they are allowed to determine what other people can and cannot do, so let them! And even Herman knows we can’t go wrong with immigration! Nothing unites white men like the fear of Mexicans. All of you have a special place in Hell on reserve, but you have to make it happen for me, first.”

Satan abruptly ended his speech, turned quickly and marched out of the room. His sudden move caught Limbaugh and Murdoch by surprise, causing Limbaugh to move quickly to his right, who subsequently colliding into Murdoch, who was still unaware that Satan was leaving. Both fell in a heap, then scrambled to get up and follow Satan. As they exited the room filled with silence. Finally Cain said, “I think he likes me.” Bachmann turned to Cain and said, “Herman, shut up.”

SWA Flight 768: The Golden Flight

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Paul Kiser

Tonight I am flying from St. Louis to Las Vegas on Southwest Airlines Flight #768. It’s been a long day and before I boarded this flight I was dreading flying all evening and getting back home near midnight; however, I’m actually in a GREAT mood.

It’s not because I’m knocking back a Bloody Mary, although that is helping my mood, and it’s not because the plane is only half full, which is certainly a positive, and it’s not because I’m sharing my row with Alicia, an intelligent, attractive USC student, which is a major positive…nope, the reason I’m elated right now is primarily due to the fact that I’m online and writing this blog while flying at 40,000 feet. That’s right, I’m WiFi in the night sky! I’m knee-deep in the Internet and my only care is will this flight last long enough for me to get this written and posted.

Here's to a sky full of SWA WiFi planes....soon

Some may not share my enthusiasm, but allow me to explain why this is so significant.

American business is Internet dependent. Our entire economy is driven by the ability of business people to connect on-line. The need to problem solve, discuss, plan, propose, and close the deal, in real-time is absolutely critical for commerce in our Brave New World of digital communications.

The problem is that communications stops                  …when we fly. And yet, that is the perfect time for the business traveler to reconnect. Those countless hours in an aluminum cylinder traveling at 525 miles per hour where we must sit alone and unconnected are killing productivity. Southwest Airlines will command the business traveler market if they have consistent, reliable WiFi.

I know they are working on it, and perhaps they have turned a corner. If so, this toast is to the people who are making that happen. There is nothing more valuable to the business traveler than time, and WiFi while traveling is gold to the rank and file business person.

Think about this. You might be reading this before I am back on the ground.  What if all your competitors were that productive? Would you be worried?