3rd From Sol

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3rd From Sol

Category Archives: US History

The End of Reliable Polling?

07 Monday Nov 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Communication, Education, Government, Higher Education, Opinion, Politics, Technology, US History

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2016, Conservatives, Donald Trump, Election, Election 2016, Elections, Hillary Clinton, polling, polling data, Presidential candidates, Presidential race

Latest Huffington Post poll

Latest Huffington Post poll

Tomorrow night the United States of America may be in for a shock. Donald Trump is going to lose, but the question is by how much. I think the loss will be surprising. I am not a statistician, nor do I have access to polling data, but there is a reality that polls don’t take into account for in today’s world. Intelligent people don’t like to respond to polls.

Phone calls at home are annoying to everyone, but decades of abuse by telemarketing companies and caller ID technology have made answering the phone without knowing who is calling a vestige of the past. Polls rely on talking to people on the phone, and when people don’t answer, polls don’t work.

This impacts this election year because there is a bias in those who support Donald Trump and those who support Hillary Clinton. Just look at interviews of Trump supporters. These people can’t shut up. They have no ability to filter themselves, and they are desperate to tell people how much they don’t know. Trump supporters are begging for attention, and when someone calls them to ask them their opinion, they leap at the opportunity.

Clinton supporters are not as eager to make a spectacle of themselves. You don’t see Clinton supporters trying to be seen by the news media, and it would be logical that they don’t want to answer annoying, twenty-minute phone calls that ask them personal questions.

In addition, many conservative campaigns are putting out manipulative polls that force people into answering the questions in their favor, so they can appear to be leading. Intelligent people can recognize this, while Trump supporters fall for it.

I predict that Trump will lose by twenty points or more.

Enemies, Foreign and Domestic

31 Wednesday Aug 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Ethics, Government, Honor, Opinion, Politics, US History

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2016, Donald Trump, Election 2016, enemy, KGB, Presidential election, spy, subversion, Tom Riddle, Vladimir Putin, Voldemort

Since the Civil War, the United States of America has not faced a bigger threat to the sovereignty of our nation, as we do today.

donald-trump

Domestic enemy of the United States

Donald Trump has been 1) endorsed by the former KGB agent and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, 2) Trump and his campaign has been link to possible ties to Russian interests, and, 3) Russia is apparently on a mission to hack into Trump’s opponents emails and released information intended to embarrass their campaigns. To add to the disgrace, Donald Trump has openly encouraged the subversion of Russia in our political system.

Vladimir Putin winks

Foreign Enemy of the United States

For the first time, our country faces the real possibility of an attempt to subvert our political system using both treasonous acts of a citizen or citizens of the United States, and the support of a former foreign enemy.

Vladimir Putin has effectively been the leader of Russia for almost seventeen years. To do this he has had to appoint a successor as President, who, in turn, appointed Putin as Prime Minister, in order to subvert the laws in Russia regarding the tenure as President. Now, as President again, he continues to rule over Russia as a Czar of Power, politically, economically, and militarily.

Vladimir_Putin_in_KGB_uniform

The KGB spy that would subvert the US Republican Party

He is unquestionably in complete control of all aspects of Russian attempts to subvert foreign countries through contracts, contributions, and espionage support for candidates that favor Russia. In France, Greece, and Italy, Russian money and influence have been used to boost the political and monetary fortunes of key candidates.

Donald Trump has been a gushing supporter of Russian interests for decades. Trump’s close ties to Russia should have made citizens of the United States question his loyalty to our country, but it didn’t because we have a large population of people who hate our country, hate our government, and eagerly support the downfall of the United States in order to replace it with a white-male dominated, Confederate States of America.

The oath to our country states that our citizens will support and defend our country’s Constitution and laws, “against all enemies, foreign and domestic.” It is time to recognize that these are not just words, but a call to action.

Trump has even gone so far as to encourage an insurrection against the legal government of our country if he is not elected President. Based on his words and actions, and the words and actions of Vladimir Putin, isn’t time to stop pretending we don’t know what is going on?

Young Putin and Young Voldemort

Young Putin and Young Voldemort

Unofficial Advance Copy of Trump’s Acceptance Speech

21 Thursday Jul 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Communication, Ethics, Generational, Government, History, Politics, Public Image, US History

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1933, 2016, acceptance speech, Adolf Hitler, Donald Trump, Election 2016, National Republican Committee, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Republican National Convention, RNC, speech

 

donald-trump(Below is the unofficial advance copy of Donald Trump’s RNC acceptance speech. Other copies may follow, so please note the date at the bottom to verify the most recent version.)

In the course of the past eight years, America has suffered deterioration in all sectors of life, which could inconceivably have been greater. The question as to what, if anything, could have been worse than in these times is a question which cannot be answered in light of the basic values of America as well as the political and economic inheritance which once existed.

In spite of its lack of mobility in political feelings and positions, America itself has increasingly turned away from concepts, parties, and associations which, in its eyes, are responsible for these conditions.

The number of Americans who inwardly supported the Obama Administration in spite of the suggestive significance and ruthless exploitation of the executive power dwindled, in the end, to a mere fraction of the entire nation.

Another typical characteristic of these eight years was the fact that, apart from natural fluctuations, the curve of developments has shown a constant decline. This depressing realization was one of the causes of the general state of despair. It served to promote the insight into the necessity of thoroughly rejecting the ideas, organizations, and men in which one gradually and rightly began to recognize the underlying causes of our decay.

The Trump campaign was thus able, in spite of the most horrible oppression, to convert increasing numbers of Americans in terms of spirit and will to defensive action. Now, in association with the other conservatives causes, it has eliminated the powers which have been ruling, by means of a revolution, and transferred the people’s will to the hands of the new Republican party. 

The program for the reconstruction, Make America Great Again, is determined by the magnitude of the distress crippling our political, moral and economic life.

Filled with the conviction that the causes of this collapse lie in internal damage to America, the Republican party aims to eliminate the afflictions from our country which would, in future, continue to foil any real recovery. The disintegration of the nation into irreconcilably opposition, which was systematically brought about by the false doctrines of liberalism means the destruction of the basis for any possible community life.

The dissolution permeates all of the basic principles of social order. The completely opposite approaches of the individuals to the concepts of state, society, religion, morality, family, and economy rips open differences which will lead to a war of all against all. Starting with the liberalism of the past century, this development will end, as the laws of nature dictate, in chaos.

The mobilization of the most primitive instincts leads to a link between the concepts of a political theory and the actions of real criminals. Beginning with Mexicans and Muslims invading our country, Police officers murdered, and acts of mass violence, all of which are condoned by liberals. 

It will be the utmost goal of the my administration to stamp out and eliminate every trace of this phenomenon, not only in the interest of America, but in the interest of the rest of World.

It is not the task of a superior national leadership to subsequently surrender what has grown organically to the theoretical principle of an unrestrained unitarianization. But it is its duty to raise the unity of spirit and will of the leadership of the nation and thus the concept of the my administration as such beyond all shadow of a doubt.

My administration basically regards it as its duty, in accordance with the spirit of the people’s vote of confidence, to prevent the elements which consciously and intentionally negate the life of the nation from exercising influence on its formation. The theoretical concept of equality before the law shall not be used, under the guise of equality, to tolerate those who despise the laws as a matter of principle or, moreover, to surrender the freedom of the nation to them on the basis of democratic doctrines.

Our next task, in any case, is to call upon the spiritual leaders of these destructive tendencies to answer for themselves and at the same time to rescue the victims of their seduction.

God Bless America!

Version AH1933,

Cited Material:  1933 March 23, Berlin

A Return to the United States of America

15 Friday Jul 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Communication, Crime, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Higher Education, History, Honor, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Respect, Taxes, Universities, US History, Violence in the Workplace

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Customer Loyalty, Democrats, Nevada, United States of America, victim, victimization

_DSC4367 (2)We have to stop pretending we’re victims. There are problems in the world. There are problems in our country. But there are always problems and problems don’t make us victims.

A victim needs to be rescued. A victim is looking for a hero to save them. We don’t need to be rescued, nor do we need to be saved.

In the United States of America, we have attempted to educate all of our citizens because people who can solve their own problems do a better job of it, and education gives a person the ability to solve their own problems.

Too many people in this country are looking for a political figure that is going to save them. They are like moths to the flame. They are drawn in by the politician that dazzles them and they surrender their intelligence in order to believe that they can be rescued.

We forget that we are not witnesses to the acts of violence that we see on television or online. We are shocked and repulsed, but the real victims are those who were there, and the families and friends who knew someone who was there.

Our impulse to be a victim, makes us feel helpless to do anything, but we are not helpless. Just being a citizen of this country makes us part of the solution. By selecting intelligent politicians, by paying taxes, by being watchful, we help to defeat acts of violence.

Some delude themselves that a gun in their hands empowers them to respond to a violent event. With little or no training, they believe they can improvise a defense in an urban environment, and stop a mentally ill person who has likely been planning their attack for weeks or months. They cannot.

Only trained law enforcement can adequately respond to a violent situation, and private citizens carrying guns in an urban environment can only make a bad situation worse.

However, we don’t have to be the victim. There is violence, and there is corruption, in this country, but we are not on a path to chaos as long as we remember for over two hundred years, we have a consistent record of defeating threats to our country.

Many of those threats did not come from outside our borders, but inside them. The worst of those threats occurred when a group of our own citizens decided to reject the results of a legitimate elections. and betray our country and our Constitution. They failed because we didn’t respond as victims, but as proud and loyal citizens.

After all we’ve been through, we are still here. Working, raising families, enjoying life more than most of the rest of the world. We are not the victims. We are the solution. We are the United States of America.

 

 

Clinton Wraps Up Nomination

06 Monday Jun 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Politics, Religion, Taxes, US History

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Bernie Sanders, California, Democrat, Democratic Presidential Nomination, Democrats, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, New Jersey, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Presidential race, Primaries, Primary, Senator Bernie Sanders, Vote

The Inevitability of President-elect Clinton

The Inevitability of President-Elect Clinton

Hillary Clinton will take the next step to being our country’s 45th President tomorrow. Despite what the Sanders Desparitas say, the race is over. Clinton’s quiet wins in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands put her only 26 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination. Shortly after the voting ends in New Jersey tomorrow, she will have the over 80 more pledged delegates to clinch the nomination as the Democratic Presidential nominee.

With a near tie in California, Clinton will win another 270 pledged delegates, and Sanders will be about 300 pledged delegates behind. The four other races tomorrow will have no impact on the outcome, as each of those States have fewer delegates at stake than the District of Columbia.

It is likely that Sanders and some of his supporters will follow through on their threat to violently disrupt the National Democratic Convention; however, many Sanders supporters joined the campaign to work for positive change, and Sanders is demonstrating that he cares less about building, than destroying.

On the other end of the spectrum, Donald Trump is heading toward political bankruptcy as each news cycle becomes less about his campaign, and more about his unethical behavior. Even Trump’s tweets make him look pitiful and stupid.

Unfortunately for the Party of Stupidity (POS,) Trump delegates are locked in for the July National Convention, and regardless of how dismal his poll numbers, Trump will be the POS nominee, as thousands of our country’s worst citizens will be in Cleveland to cheer him on to failure. 

Nine months ago, I said that the GOP Presidential Race is Over and this has continued to be true. All we have left to do is watch how bad the Republicans lose.

Clinton Emails: Secrets To Be Exposed

01 Wednesday Jun 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Ethics, Generational, Government, History, Politics, Privacy, Public Relations, US History, Women

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Benghazi, Bernie Sanders, controversy, Donald Trump, Election 2016, emails, FBI, Girl Scouts of America, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Russia, Secretary of State, Senator, Senator Bernie Sanders, Vladimir Putin

Hillary ClintonDonald Trump and Bernie Sanders campaigns are rejoicing at the revelations about to be exposed from secret Hillary Clinton emails on a private server, while she was Secretary of State. Among the revelations are:

  • In 2009, Clinton attempted to humiliate, then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, by arranging to have him photographed in the nude, riding a horse.
  • In 2012, Clinton outlined a plan to become President, and use the Girl Scouts of America to send their members door-to-door under the ruse of selling cookies to determine which homes had guns, followed by night raids by Navy Seals to collect the guns.
  • In 2010, Clinton admitted in an email, that while she was Senator from New York, she conspired to run for President as a ruse to become Secretary of State, where she intended to set up a private email account, rather than using a government email account.

Fox News broke the story today and declared that this scandal will finally end the Clinton campaign to become President of the United States. Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, reacted to the news by saying, “Huh, what?” followed by a scathing, “Okay, great.”

Mitch McConnell said,

“Finally, we not only have the smoking gun on Clinton, we have the powder, the shot, the wading, and that tamper thing that you use to push it all the stuff down the barrel. She not going to be President because she’s going to jail!”

Vladimir Putin tests drives new Russian personnel carrier

Vladimir Putin tests drives new Russian air conditioned military personnel carrier

According to sources in the FBI familiar with the emails, the attempt to humiliate Putin was almost thwarted when he refused to take off the pants; however, the photographer decided that an image of Putin’s sagging breasts and small hands were adequate to accomplish the goal.

Apparently, the conspiracy to collect guns from United States citizens was later eliminated when it was determined that gun owners would likely shoot a Girl Scout under the assumption she was a burglar.

In a campaign speech today, Trump said, “There’s going to be a lot more coming out on Clinton’s emails. I know, because, really, I’m God, no, really, I am, and I’m not happy with her.” Sanders responded to questions from reporters about the rumors of the secret emails by saying, “This campaign is about momentum, and the superdelegates….I’m sorry, what was the question?”

Sanders Supporter’s Big Blunder

31 Tuesday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, College, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Higher Education, History, Politics, Pride, Taxes, Universities, US History, Women

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2016, Bernie Sanders, Congress, Conservatives, Donald Trump, Election 2016, House of Representatives, Presidential candidates, Presidential election, Senate, Senator Bernie Sanders, supporters

Bernie Sanders supportersThe biggest mistake of Sander’s supporters is the ignoring the opportunity they have in front of them.

Sanders has lost the nomination, and the attempt to destroy the Democratic Party is not going to change that fact. Beyond whining, the main message I hear from Sander’s supporters is that it is time for changing the status quo.

Liberal and progressive people are unified in investing our money in people, not corporations. They are unified in maintaining strong government regulations that level the playing field in every commercial endeavor, including the banking and finance industry. Most Clinton supporters would completely agree that current government established by conservatives, for conservatives, and against the citizens of the United States, must be fixed.

The problem is that neither Hillary Clinton, nor Bernie Sanders can get anything done if both the House of Representatives and the Senate are run by conservative.

This is the big blunder of Sander’s supporters. Hillary Clinton will be ruled and regulated by Congress. If Sander’s supporters really want to see change, they need to stop wasting time on a lost cause, and start identifying the politicians that will focus on fixing our country, not shutting it down.

If Congress voted for a law to force banks to be smaller, and added new regulations, Clinton would have to accept it. To go to war with her own party would end her Presidency. If Clinton feels that Congress is too liberal, she will have to either get on board, or be humiliated.

Sanders supporters don’t understand this, because if they did, they would be one hundred percent focused on Congressional races, and not drooling at the idea of destroying the Democratic National Convention. There is nothing that will happen in Philadelphia this July, because it is meaningless. National political conventions are all show, and no substance.

The alpha and omega of positive changes in our country will be in the hands of Congress. If the dust settles in November and the Republicans still have control of either the House or the Senate, nothing, absolutely nothing will change.

Ironically, the real catalyst for change is in the hands of the Sanders supporters, but they have no idea of what to do with what the power they have in changing Congress.

What Sanders Didn’t Do Yesterday

18 Wednesday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Crime, Generational, Government, History, Honor, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Respect, US History

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Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Election 2016, Nevada State Convention, supporters, Violence

bernie_sanders_jef_AP

Bernie Sanders: Encourages violence and disruption if it will help him lose by a smaller margin.

Bernie Sanders failed yesterday.

Yesterday, Sanders didn’t win Kentucky. Yesterday, Sanders didn’t have a commanding win in Oregon. Yesterday, Sanders barely moved the needle in pledged delegates.

But what Sanders didn’t do yesterday was show leadership. His supporters have become thugs at public events and when Sanders should have apologized and told his supporters that intimidation and bullying are not how he wants to win elections, he didn’t.

He actually denied that his supporters violently protested and disrupted the Nevada State convention, and then he added,

…when we speak of violence, I should add here that months ago, during the Nevada campaign, shots were fired into my campaign office in Nevada and apartment housing complex my campaign staff lived in was broken into and ransacked. 

Like a child who won’t admit he was wrong, Sanders starts blaming everyone else and implies his supporters were justified in their behavior.

Bernie Sanders wants to be President. He wants our country to believe that he can solve problems. He wants us to believe he is honorable and we can trust him.

We don’t need a President who encourages violent and disruptive protests, as Bernie Sanders does with his supporters. We don’t need an alleged ‘problem solver’ that creates problems, then pretends he didn’t, like Bernie Sanders. 

Bernie Sanders didn’t do the right thing yesterday, but that is why he is a failure as a leader.

What Trump Didn’t Do Today

17 Tuesday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Politics, Taxes, US History, Women

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2016, Donald Trump, Election, Election 2016, GOP, May 17, National Republican Committee, NRC, prediction, Presidential candidates, Presidential race, Republican, Republicans

Donald Trump: The Republican Anti-Christ?

The SS Trump:  A disaster in progress

It didn’t happen. Trump didn’t do it. Donald Trump didn’t drop out of the Presidential race today as I predicted he would at 9:00 AM EDT. I was wrong.

If I ever wanted to be wrong about something, this was it. The SS Trump has set sail across the sea of stupidity and the Republican party is all on board. Trump doesn’t fear the icebergs of reality because he doesn’t believe in reality.

I knew my prediction would probably be wrong after I heard about last Thursday’s ‘Big GOP meeting.’ Instead of setting the stage for a Republican reality check and Trump’s departure, Paul Ryan played the role of Lucius Malfoy and pretended that our country’s Voldemort was going to be reborn and not be the laughing-stock of the world.

It is possible that the Republican leadership is really as stupid as they are acting, but I have a hard time accepting it. Our two-party system has had many bumps and bruises in the last two centuries, but when one party is going down in flames, the core believers in that party usually regain control and steer it back on course. That doesn’t seem to be happening this time.

But maybe I’m wrong about the date? Maybe he still is running a fake campaign but he’s going to drop out later? If he is going to drop out, he doesn’t have much time. Every day Trump adds another nail in the Republican coffin, and conservatives have been digging their grave since Reagan was President. 

Regardless, I was wrong about May 17….today is a great day!

Pledge of Loyalty to the United States of America

11 Wednesday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Business, Education, Ethics, Government, Government Regulation, Health, History, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Religion, Respect, Taxes, US History

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Loyalty, Paul Kiser, Pledge, United States, United States of America

US flagI, Paul Kiser, declare my loyalty to the United States of America.

I shall support my country and my government against enemies domestic and foreign.

I shall accept and defend the concept that all people are created equal, and no one has a right to limit or infringe on a citizen’s rights, so long as they do not endanger others, nor limit or infringe on the rights of others.

I shall not attempt to inflict my personal moral or religious beliefs on others, nor shall I support laws that do.

I have an obligation to financially support our government and I shall NOT support any effort destabilize, diminish, nor destroy public programs and projects by withholding public funds or other means, unless it is determined that those programs and projects are not in the best interest of our country.

I shall support a tax structure that places an increased tax burden on those best able to pay taxes, and minimizes taxes on those who are not.

I know that business is inherently unethical and must have oversight to create a level field for all competitors. I shall support government regulation and reject any rule or law that attempts to give a business entity equal or greater rights than given a citizen.

I support the concept that NO organization that is, in part, or whole, to provide service or benefit (education, healthcare, government contractors, law enforcement, etc.) to the citizens of this country should be investor owned, nor should it provide excess profit for the owners, executives, or managers of the organization regardless of whether the organization qualifies for not-for-profit status.

I recognize that visitors to our country shall be honored and given respect and aid.

I know that helping the less fortunate improve their living conditions, improves the living conditions for all citizens, and I shall support those efforts.

I shall refer to our country as the United States, or the United States of America, and avoid using the single term ‘America’ or ‘American,’ as those terms apply to all of North, Central, or South America.

I shall vote for the most intelligent, open-minded candidates for public office, as it is their responsibility to research and understand all issues and opportunities of our government, and then make the best choice for all people.

I shall support all efforts to assess, anticipate, and prepare for the needs and issues of our country’s future, and not dwell on past issues, except to avoid them in the future.

I shall honor my citizenship and my fellow citizens by making this pledge and seeking to serve our country to the best of my abilities.

Trump and GOP About to End the Facade?

08 Sunday May 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Government, Politics, US History

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2016, Donald Trump, Election, GOP, Joffrey Baratheon, National Republican Committee, NRC, Paul Ryan, President, Presidential candidates, Reince Priebus, Republican

Donald Trump: The Republican Anti-Christ?

Donald Trump: The Republican Anti-Christ?

Cruz is out. Kasich is out. It’s all over. Donald Trump wins, and the Republican party goes down in flames in one of the biggest political blunders since Nixon began recording his phone conversations.

Could it be true? No. 

I have a hard time believing that the current antics of the Republican party are genuine. A year ago all Hell broke loose in the Republican party. Every wacko came out to run for President, and the party was being divided up into little pieces. It looked like the 2016 Presidential race was over before it started. (SEE: The Trump Card – Aug 2015)

Joffrey: The Leadership Model for Trump

Joffrey: The Leadership Model for Trump

Enter Donald Trump. From the start, Trump’s tactic was to be the biggest and loudest wacko. It made no sense. The majority of voters of the United States of America were not going to elect the Joffrey Baratheon of conservative politics as President. Not even a majority of Republicans would fall for it.

But, Donald Trump was accomplishing one vital objective. He was rounding up all the wackos under one banner. That was huge.

The only problem was that, in the process, Trump alienated the rest of the country. Could Trump be so stupid to think that he could charm intelligent people after insulting them for a year? Could he be so stupid to not realize that he was inciting a backlash of voters who would not only send him down in flames, but send the rest of the party with him?

In August of last year, I said that I thought that Trump’s run for President couldn’t be real and in December I even predicted a date and time as to when he would drop out and order his minions to vote for the real Republican Presidential candidate. (SEE:  Trump Dropout Countdown – DEC 2015)

Last month I admitted that at least part of my prediction was wrong, and that Jeb Bush was apparently not to be the beneficiary of Trump’s fake campaign. (SEE:  Am I Wrong About Trump? – APR 2016)

Now it is less than ten days to my May 17th prediction and it there is no indication that Trump is ready to end the charade; however, I still believe Trump is faking it.

Why?

It’s Just Business
In big business, especially in investment and real estate, the game is deception. Make your competition think you’re doing one thing, while you are actually doing something completely different.

Trump is a businessman, and he is skilled at the art of deception. He is arrogant, but he’s not that stupid. Trump’s buffoonery is too much drama, and indicates he is trying to create the grand illusion.

To fake out the country, and then pull in the ‘hero’ who would save the day, would be Trump’s ultimate business deal.

Ryan’s Denials:  Methinks the Lady Doth Protest Too Much
Paul Ryan is the most likely person to play the hero role at the end of Trump’s melodrama. He has been exceptionally low-key in this past year, which would be expected if he was avoiding any political controversies prior to a run for the President.

One could make the argument that it is easy to be Mr. Invisible when you don’t do anything, but Ryan has never been shy about the political spotlight even though he does nothing. To go from a rank and file Representative with national recognition to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and become invisible doesn’t make sense.

He has denied he would run for President, but Ryan denied that he would be the Speaker of the House five times before he ‘reluctantly’ accepted the position. He seems to play coy, and then force people to woo him before he suddenly take pity on the poor mortals, and does what he says he won’t.

The more Ryan denies that he will run for President, the more likely he will.

Reince Priebus: In on the Big Secret?

Reince Priebus: In on the big secret?

Anemic Republican Leadership
Another clue is the attitude of Reince Priebus, the chairperson of the Republican National Committee. For over a month now Priebus has been playing peacemaker with Donald Trump. This is odd. The party is in uproar over Trump as their nominee, and the leader of the party is acting as if Trump is just a misunderstood child.

This behavior doesn’t make any sense unless Priebus knows that Trump is running a fake campaign, and that he will drop out and throw his support behind a real candidate.

The End Game
Donald Trump has achieved his goal. All the GOP wannabes have dropped out of the race. There is nothing more for him to do but drop out.

However, Trump can’t just announce that he is dropping out of the race and tell his supporters to vote for Ryan. He has to lay the groundwork first. The following is a scenario of how it might happen:

  1. GOP Uproar. There has to be enough outrage from high profile Republicans to make it look as if that Trump will not be able to win in November. This has already started happening, but this has to reach a crescendo just before he takes the next step.
  2. The Big Meeting. Once it appears that Trump has no support from the GOP establishment, a meeting between Trump and the Republican leadership would be needed. The meeting gives Trump a cover story, so that it doesn’t look like his campaign was faked from the start. The meeting will later be credited with laying the groundwork for Trump to bow out and for Paul Ryan to step up as the Presidential candidate. Last Friday (May 6,) the Republican leadership announced a Big Meeting with Trump and the Republican leadership, including Paul Ryan. It is scheduled for this Thursday, May 12.
  3. Trump’s Anguish. After that meeting, Trump will ‘have to think some things over.’ There will be leaks to the press that Trump was told he can’t win and that he will destroy the Republican party. Trump’s campaign will begin to leak that he is concerned about the damage he is doing to the Republican party, and there will be hints he is dropping out. The rumors will need a few days to soak in.
  4. The Big Fall. As soon as all the news media is speculating that Trump is about to drop out, and that a deal has been brokered, Trump will make his announcement that he is falling on his sword for the good of the party and the nation. Paul Ryan’s announcement that he is stepping into the race has to come at the same time, or almost immediately to keep anyone else from restarting their campaign. May 17 would be about the right timing, even though Kentucky and Oregon primaries are on that day.

Of course, I could be wrong. Perhaps Donald Trump is stupid enough to think that he can reinvent himself and win over moderates, but I have faith in the citizens of the United States. Whether Abraham Lincoln said the following or not, it applies to Donald Trump:

You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

5 Reasons Why Sanders Should Be the Democratic VP Nominee

27 Wednesday Apr 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Branding, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Passionate People, Politics, Taxes, The Tipping Point, US History, Women

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2016, Bernie Sanders, Congress, Conservatives, Democrats, Dems, GOP, Hillary Clinton, House of Representatives, President, Presidential race, Republican, Republicans, Senate, vice president, White House

Bernie Sanders is passionate, if he is anything

Bernie Sanders as Vice President. It’s not going to happen. It seems like the logical move, but there are too many forces working against it. Hillary Clinton will not want an adversary as Vice President. Sanders won’t want to play second fiddle. Contributors for the Clinton campaign will fear Sanders influence in the White House. The list goes on.

However, Sanders as Vice President is exactly what our nation needs: 

ONE:  He will energize the ticket and bring in supporters who might not vote
Sanders will bring in the youth vote, who very well may walk away if he’s not on the ticket. A Clinton/Sanders ticket will end any chance for a Republican win. The best they can hope for is to try to keep the House of Representatives, which is unlikely with Trump at the top of their ticket.

Hillary Clinton: In her 3rd decade of fighting for a government by the people

Hillary Clinton needs Sanders as her liberal standard-bearer

TWO:  He could be tasked with helping Democrats take back the House and Senate
There is no doubt that for Sanders to see anything on his agenda achieved, the Democrats have to control government. He would be the perfect catalyst to make that happen.

THREE:  As Vice President, Sanders can push a liberal agenda
Sanders is relentless on changing the conservative status quo. Even before he would be sworn into office, he will put conservatives on the defensive, instead of taking the offensive as they did when Barack Obama was elected in 2008.

FOUR:  Sanders on the ticket creates a big win
Red States, like Arizona, might turn to voting Blue if Sanders is on the ticket. Certainly, Clinton will beat Trump, but the win has to be so large that the unintelligent, immature, and racist Trump supporters must be humiliated. Sanders can make that happen.

FIVE:  Clinton will do better with a team of rivals
A spirited debate within the administration will lead to better decisions. Liberals value intelligence, logic, and empathy, and that requires a thorough examination of all viewpoints. Sanders would be a key element in challenging the paradigms of politics, economics, and social values.

Populism is a Symptom of the Failure of People, Not Government

26 Tuesday Apr 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Communication, Education, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, History, Honor, Politics, Religion, Respect, Social Media Relations, Taxes, Traditional Media, US History

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2016, Bernie Sanders, Conservatives, Democrats, Donald Trump, Elections, James Madison, Mara Lisasson, Politics, populism, populist, Republicans

 

Mara Liasson, NPR/Fox News Journalist

Mara Liasson, NPR Political Correspondent/Fox News Contributor

Mara Liasson, political correspondent for National Public Radio (NPR,) reported on the Morning Edition segment that populism is a major force in this year’s Presidential campaigns, and she wanted to find out what effect it might have after the election.

In her report she featured people who feel ‘left behind.’ Her first interview was with a proud ‘Hillbilly.’ Her next interview was with Kathy Kramer, a political science professor from the University of Wisconsin. Liasson described Professor Kramer as one who has spent the last eleven years talking to Wisconsin people who “felt ignored, or dismissed by politicians, the media, the government, or big business.”

Liasson suggested through her story and her featured interviewees, that the Populism movement is not just a 2016 event, and is likely to have an impact in future elections.

Populism is not new to organized societies, and according to James Madison, is not an action that leads to a better society. In the Federalist No. 10 paper, Madison refers to populists movements as people,

Author, Political theorist, Constitutionalist, President of the United States of America

Author, Political theorist, Constitutionalist, President of the United States of America

…who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adversed to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have tapped into the passions of many people, and at least in the case of Trump, exploited people who seek to impose their beliefs and interests on those who disagree with them. Madison continues his description of populist-type movements later in the same paper,

A zeal for different opinions concerning religion, concerning government, and many other points, as well of speculation as of practices…have, in turn, divided mankind into parties, inflamed them with mutual animosity, and rendered them much more disposed to vex and oppress each other than to co-operate for their common good.

Missed in Liasson’s report is that the root cause of their dissatisfaction of government and politicians, the feeling of being left behind, is a direct result of the types of leaders that voters have been electing since Ronald Reagan in 1979. The populists anger, among conservatives, seem to be a combination of electing the wrong people, inciting a belief that the caucasian male is superior, and a desire to inflict personal religious beliefs as public law. Add to the their misplaced emotions, a failure to use reason to examine the issues effectively, and we have what James Madison described 228 years ago.

We can’t fix government or politicians until we fix the people. Madison knew that, but what Madison may not have known was that the twenty-first century news media would accept populist movements as valid political thought, when it is simply public masturbation of the uneducated, immature, and egocentric mind.

Siberian Elm: Trashy Tree Defines Less Affluent Neighborhoods

20 Wednesday Apr 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Green, Landscaping, US History

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bugs, invasive trees, Landscaping, lawns, leaves, NV, patios, pests, Reno, seedlings, Siberian Elm, Southwest, Tree, tree care, United States, West

Trees are beautiful. Trees produce oxygen. Trees absorb carbon. Trees are wonderful. …except for the Siberian Elm.

A Siberian Elm loaded up with seed pods (Reno, NV/April 2016)

A Siberian Elm loaded up with seed pods (Reno, NV/April 2016)

Hundreds of seedlings ready to infest the neighbor's yard

Hundreds of seedlings ready to infest the neighbor’s yard (Reno, NV/April 2016)

The Siberian Elm (Ulmus pumila) in the Western United States is a weed on steroids. My family had a two of Siberian Elm trees in our front yard in northwestern Colorado, where I grew up, but we incorrectly called them a Chinese Elm. They are commonplace in most towns throughout the West, but typically they only grow in areas that are neglected.

The Siberian Elm was introduced in the United States in the 1860’s, and is now considered an invasive tree. It is primarily found in less affluent neighborhoods. It is a fast growing, rapidly spreading tree, that withstands cold winter climates. Once its root system is established the only way to kill it is to destroy the root system or girdle the tree.

Siberian Elm trees planted as a hedge with Spring growth (Reno, NV/April 2016)

Until recently, the Siberian Elm was sold as a plant to create a hedge. Its fast growing characteristics made it attractive to homeowners that wanted a quick barrier at the edge of their property.

Unfortunately, once established, its growth becomes an enemy to the homeowner and her or his neighbors. It requires constant trimming, and once out of control it reverts to its natural tree behavior by shooting up branches that can grow six feet or more per year.

A hedge of Siberian Elm trees trimmed back in the Spring

A hedge of Siberian Elm trees trimmed back in the Spring

Dead branches are a constant issue with this tree

As a mature tree, it typically will have large branches die that make the tree look trashy unless it is constantly maintained.

The Dandelion of Trees
The worst part of a Siberian Elm is its ability to spread. In the early Spring the tree will almost look as if it has dead leaves. These are not leaves but masses of rounded, flat seeds that cover the ground once released. These white to slightly yellow seedlings will blow around until they find a spot to take root. By the end of the summer, there will be thousands of new saplings growing anyplace that is neglected.

This is probably why the Siberian Elm is found in poorer neighborhoods. The tree thrives in areas where yard care is ignored and it has the opportunity to establish a root system before it can be cut or pulled. Once established, the root system will send up new saplings, that will continue to grow until it is dug up, or until a mature tree is established.

Leaves of the Siberian Elm look glossy in sunlight

Leaves of the Siberian Elm look glossy in sunlight

Bug Infestations
By mid-summer, Siberian Elm trees can be infested with bugs. The Elm Leaf Beetle (Xanthogaleruca luteola) is the most common pest. Both the larva (Spring) and the mature beetle (mid-Summer) will riddle the leaves of the tree with holes. By Fall, the leaves add to the trashy look of the tree or hedge.

Other pests are known to use the Siberian Elm as habitat, including the Cucumber Beetle and the Boxelder Bug.

A 2014 U.S. Forest Service publication suggested that more public education of the invasive nature of the Siberian Elm is needed; however, communities throughout the Southwestern United States may want to take stronger action, as the Siberian Elm is a mark of shame in any neighborhood.

Post Hoc Ergo Proctor Hoc – The Outsider Myth

11 Monday Apr 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Ethics, Government, Government Regulation, History, Opinion, Politics, Taxes, US History

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2016, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Dems, Donald Trump, GOP, latin, logic, myth, Outsiders, Preside, Presidential election, Republicans, Sander's supporters, Trump supporters

“He loves Trump because he’s an outsider, not a politician.”

 Kemi Ajisekola from Who Are Donald Trump Supporters

“…Sanders – at least he is an outsider who understands that the government and the economy are broken.”

A 55 year-old male quoted in The Gaurdian

Supporters listen to a speech by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at a rally at the Great Bay Community College, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016, in Portsmouth, N.H. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

White people for Trump (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

Post hoc ergo Proctor hoc is latin and it means that just because one thing follows another, doesn’t mean one thing causes another.

The logic of Trump and Sanders supporters is as follows:

  1. Our Government is broken.
  2. Our Government has been broken by politicians.
  3. People who are not politicians are outsiders.
  4. Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are not politicians.
  5. Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are outsiders.
  6. Outsiders will fix our government.

All six of these statements have to be true for their logic to be valid, but Trump and Sanders supporters seem to believe that by stating statement number five (Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are outsiders) that six is automatically true.

Post hoc ergo proctor hoc.

White people for Sanders

White people for Sanders (Reuters/Mark Kauzlarich)

 

Statement #1 – Our Government is broken
That is a broad statement that is often linked to conservative’s effort to stonewall any government action that doesn’t conform to their failed ideas. A careful review of our government and in our country will show that almost all problems in government have had a root in conservative ideology. The past thirty years have been a parade of bad decisions based on conservative concepts that they now refuse to allow to be changed. Despite that, the United States of America is still considered to be the place that most people would want to come to live and raise a family. That doesn’t really support the idea that our government is broken.

Statement #2 – Our government has been broken by politicians
Here again, it is conservative ideology that is the root of most problems that can be identified in our government. A lack of good government oversight, corrupt private businesses committing fraud in their dealing with the government, and undercutting the vital revenue needed for good government are all evidence that the broad brush blaming all politicians doesn’t adequately explain the cause of the problems in our government.

Statement #3 – People who are not politicians are outsiders
All colleges have a political science department, but that doesn’t mean only those with a degree in political science become politicians. Nor does the word, ‘politician’ specifically apply to someone who is elected to a political office. Anyone who attempts to shape social policy is a politician. The term ‘politician’ is often used to mean, “those bad guys,” but that is too general of a term to apply to everyone involved in politics. Our country was built by politicians, and many of them served in that role for decades. Electing an ‘outsider’ rather than a politician is like cutting down an entire orchard, that you planted, because one tree had sour fruit.

Statement #4 – Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are not politicians

CONCORD, NC - MARCH 7: Donald Trump supporters cheer on the Republican presidential candidate before a campaign rally March 7, 2016 in Concord, North Carolina. The North Carolina Republican presidential primary will be held March 15. (Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

More white people for Trump (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

Donald Trump has put himself into consideration for running for President in 1988, 2000, 2004, 2012, and for New York Governor in 2006 and 2014. He has been trying to get into politics for almost three decades. He is a politician, …and he’s really bad at it.

More white people for Sanders

More white people for Sanders (Alan Diaz/AP)

Bernie Sanders has been in political office since 1981. He is a career politician. He has always stood as an Independent, but he is definitely a politician.

Statement #5 – Donald Trump and/or Bernie Sanders are outsiders
And Lance Armstrong is an ethical, honest person.

Statement #6 – Outsiders will fix our government
The history of our country indicates that those with the least political experience are the least likely to accomplish anything positive. Many of the people who are preventing any effective action in Congress, are novice lawmakers who were voted in on the belief they were outsiders. 

Representative Paul Ryan is considered to be a maverick and an outsider by many. His accomplishments in Congress since 1999 are to have a Post Office in his District renamed, and to have an excise tax on arrow shafts lowered.

Trump and Sanders supporters have one thing in common. They have no idea what they are doing, nor why they are doing it.

Trump Supporters: The Brown Stain On USA’s Underwear

21 Monday Mar 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, College, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Higher Education, History, Honor, Politics, Religion, Taxes, Universities, US History, Women

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Conservatives, Donald Trump, lies, New York Times, Politico, Republican, Republicans

There are two things that are true about this Presidential election year. First, Donald Trump is a pathological liar, and second, that his supporters represent the worst examples of citizens of United States of America.

The Product of Conservative's Lunacy

Lies of a Political Whore

rulings-tom-falseDonald Trump says:  the man who rushed the stage at him in Dayton, Ohio, “had chatter about ISIS, or with ISIS” in his social media posts.

Donald Trump says:  “GDP was zero essentially for the last two quarters.”

Donald Trump says:  Under the Iran nuclear deal, “we give them $150 billion, we get nothing.”

Donald Trump says:  Common Core is “education through Washington D.C.”

Donald Trump says:  The wives of the 9/11 hijackers “knew exactly what was happening” and went back to Saudi Arabia two days before the attacks to watch their husbands on television flying the planes.

Donald Trump says:  Mahatma Gandhi once said, “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Donald Trump says:  “the New York Times can write a story that they know is false” yet “they can’t basically be sued.”

Donald Trump says:  “We (Trump University) have an ‘A’ from the Better Business Bureau.”  

Donald Trump says:  “If it weren’t for me … (illegal immigration) wouldn’t even be a big subject.”  

Donald Trump says:  On the Iraq war, “I said it loud and clear, ‘You’ll destabilize the Middle East.’ “

rulings-tom-pantsonfireVoldemort’s Big Lies

Donald Trump says:  “I don’t know anything about David Duke.”

Donald Trump says:  Ted Cruz “said I was in favor in Libya. I never discussed that subject.”

Donald Trump says:  that in the Philippines more than a century ago, Gen. John Pershing “took 50 bullets, and he dipped them in pigs’ blood,” and shot 49 Muslim rebels. “The 50th person, he said, ‘You go back to your people, and you tell them what happened.’ And for 25 years, there wasn’t a problem.”

Donald Trump says:  “Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number’s probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.”

Trump Speaks the Lies of the Uneducated, Old, White

Since 2007, the only Presidential candidate that has a worse record than Donald Trump of lying, is Dr. Ben Carson, and Trump has twice as many “Pants on Fire” lies as even Carson. Donald Trump has built his campaign on incitement of the older, less educated, white people who see themselves as victims based on lies and misconceptions they created. Trump is loved by his supporters for ‘speaking the truth’ and ‘saying what no one else will say,’ which is to say, he is gaining their love by saying what they want to hear. Trump validates their view of the world, even though everyone else knows he’s lying. 

Political lying

The demographics of Trump supporters are the people the type of people who blame everyone else for their lot in life. Only 19% have a college degree. More than 80% are over age 45. Only 15% of Hispanics said they support Trump, and only 9% of African-Americans favored Trump.

Trump supporters are the opposite end of the model citizen, and based on multiple incidents and media interviews with them, they are violent and susceptible to the type of incitement that Trump offers in his rallies. They are misfits who don’t believe in anything that doesn’t match their dysfunctional view of the world.

Every time Trump lies to gain their support, they interpret it as a confirmation of all that they want to believe to be true. They believe they are the chosen ones by birth and through Trump, they will take their rightful place as the superior race, and the rest of us shall fall to our knees and worship them.

 

5 Reasons I No Longer Feel The Bern

04 Friday Mar 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Branding, Communication, Education, Ethics, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Taxes, US History, Women

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2016, Bernie Sanders, Conservatives, Democrats, Donald, GOP, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, liberals, Politics, President, Republicans

Nevada was an early caucus state. Caucus is Latin for a divisive meeting of unified people and, from the word, ‘caca,’ meaning excrement.

Hillary Clinton: In her 3rd decade of fighting for a government by the people

Hillary Clinton: In her 3rd decade of fighting for a government by the people

Prior to the Nevada caucus I was unsure who I was supporting. I always have liked Hillary Clinton, but I have been a little frustrated with the moderate viewpoint that we can all work together, when extremist conservatives have proven that we really can’t. I considered myself leaning towards Bernie Sanders until the February 11th Democratic debate, and then I began to realize that Bernie is not the man to lead this country.

1. Bernie: The One-Song Musical
In the February 11th Democratic debate I realized that Bernie Sanders has latched on to a handful of speaking points and beats them to death at every rally. I don’t really care what Hillary Clinton said in her speeches to any big bank, but I do appreciate she has their attention. Bernie’s harping on a few minor meaningless issues is exactly what conservatives have been doing for decades and I’m sick of it. We don’t need a leader to spend four years of blaming other people for small faults when we have the rise of a second Confederacy in our country that seeks to destroy everything we stand for in the United States.

2. Bernie Supporters:  All Flash, No Dignity, No Honor, No Substance
I live next to the University of Nevada, so we have a lot of college students in our precinct. Needless to say our precinct went almost entirely for Bernie Sanders. They were all excited about themselves and how they were the voice of change. They were also rude and undignified in their manner of supporting their candidate. Both the elected President and Secretary of the caucus were Bernie supporters and wearing Bernie tee shirts and buttons. At one point, the Secretary, who did nothing during the meeting, walked in front of the fifteen Clinton supporters and announced to the room, “I’m not voting for Hillary. I’d never do that.”

But the real issue for me was when an envelope was passed around to help the Democratic Party. I went to at least thirty people before me, and none of them put any money in it. Not even a quarter. I put twenty dollars in it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it came back with only that amount. None of the Sanders supporters were committed to helping the Democratic party. They were just there to pleasure themselves.

We don't need screamers for leaders
We don’t need screamers for leaders
Bernie Sanders is passionate, if he is anything
donald-trump-funny-face

3.  Bernie:  Howard Dean’s Scream Over and Over Again
Every time I see Bernie Sanders speak, I see Howard Dean. Sanders is not passionate, he’s irrational. After he loses an election or caucus, he starts talking about momentum, as if losing is a good thing because the campaign is about momentum, not issues.

“What this entire campaign has been about is the issue of momentum….”

                       Bernie Sanders, after losing Nevada

It’s the ‘say nothing’ approach to communication that has no meaning, just key words strung together to incite applause. It’s not leadership, it’s Trumpmanship.

4.  Bernie:  Leadership Via Destruction
Much of Sanders campaign has devolved into leadership via destruction. I agree with him on most of the issues, but in his speeches he tends to present himself as a dragon slayer and yet, he comes off more like Don Quixote. I supported him when he stayed on topic, but now he seems stuck on a message of attack rather than building. That’s not the route I support for someone to become President.

5.  Bernie:  Bottomless Pit of Promises
It the past seven years have proven anything, it has proven that the President can do very little if he or she has a Congress that is not on the same page. Promises by a presidential candidate are the fairy dust of politics. What we need to hear from a Democratic Presidential candidate is:

…elect me, AND elect these Democrats for Congress, and we will get Citizens United overturned, a ban on assault weapons restored, improve the healthcare system, ….

Speeches are the leverage of action. If a candidate for President of the United States of America is truly seeking action, he or she needs to accept that their speech should acknowledge the path to action requires the citizen to do more than just elect her or him.

TRUMP: Product of 35 Years of Conservatism

29 Monday Feb 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Generational, Government, Government Regulation, Higher Education, History, Politics, Public Image, Public Relations, Religion, Taxes, US History, Women

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Cliven Bundy, Conservatives, Donald Trump, George W. Bush, GOP, John Boehner, Mitt Romney, Republican, Republicans, Ronald Reagan, Tea Party

President Ronald Reagan: Actor, Cowboy, FBI Informant

President Ronald Reagan:  Actor, Cowboy, FBI Informant, Destroyer of Good Government

On January 20, 1981, Ronald Reagan became President. Before he was elected this actor, FBI-informant, dictator-like Governor was a minor figure in national politics. His rise to power came after the collapse of the Republican party in the post-Watergate era. Reagan became the new face for disgraced conservatives. He rose to power by becoming the Great White demigod for Caucasian males.

After Nixon proved the lack of morals of the Republican party, there were two choices. The first choice to would be to humbly accept the failure of ethics within the party and commit to an honest approach to serving our government. The second choice would be to double down and make the party even less ethical than it was before Nixon’s gang of Dirty Tricksters.

The party chose to double down and go for the gullible voter. Conservatives became two-faced. The outward face was a facade of saying anything to suck in the weak and the stupid, and the other face was the hidden face of power and corruption that steered the true agenda of the party.

Conservatives Made Government Corrupt
Federal, State, and local government had brought us out of the depression, created the interstate highway system, and put us in space. Those achievements set the stage for a prosperous country that had a new power infrastructure, 20th century transportation system, and was on the leading edge of technology. In addition, cities and towns had new water and sewer systems, and new schools to elevate the level of education for everyone in the United States.

President John F. Kennedy: Making Big Government Do Great Things

President John F. Kennedy: Making Big Government Do Great Things

Our country was great, because our government was great.

However, our government also maintained the balance of fairness for all citizens. Our government held corporations to higher standards. If an airline wanted to have a route that was a financial goldmine, they also have to serve a smaller community that wouldn’t have air service under the typical business greed motivation. Conservatives had to make government evil in order to gain public support to destroy it.

Undercutting Government
The first step was to bankrupt the government. That was a job for the Reagan administration. To the public he railed against the size of government and proclaimed that taxes were too high. In 1981, he cut taxes for the lowest wage earners by 3%, (from 14% down to 11%,) but slashed taxes on the super rich by 20%, (from 70% to 50%.) along with slashing estate taxes and corporate taxes for the rich and powerful.

Then in 1986, he slashed taxes again for the super wealthy from 50% to 28%, but INCREASED the taxes on those least able to pay from 11% to 15%. In the end he had increased taxes on the lowest wage earner by 2% and decreased taxes on the super wealthy by 42%.

At the same time, Reagan increased federal spending through massive and wasteful military spending that put the country’s economy on the brink of disaster. This would all be sold to the public as the failure of our government, not the insane policies of a conservative economic madman.

Radicalized Right

Cliven Bundy - Created in Ronald Reagan's Image (photo credit cnn.com)

Cliven Bundy – Created in Ronald Reagan’s Image (photo credit cnn.com)

With the humiliation of the Nixon presidency, conservatives had to find support in citizens who were susceptible to manipulation, as they had lost the trust of most of the intelligent citizens of our country. They began seeking out false problems that would win favor with the lesser intelligent white person.

Issues like gun ownership, Christian extremism, racism targeting Hispanics, demonizing public education, and laws targeting women, minority voters, and gays became the banner of the conservatives. All of these issues appealed to the least intelligent white male who sought to blame others for their failures.

By raising these false issues, the people who were gullible felt empowered and believed that conservatives had become their voice for issues that existed only in the minds of weak, insecure, racists. The white male and his spouse saw conservatives as angels of a mythical God of white people who would bring back the United States to be something it never was before.

Obstruct, Obstruct, Obstruct:  Do Nothing Conservatives
George W. Bush became the final straw in our country to expose the failure of conservatives. He followed the conservative ideology to the letter and when it all failed, conservatives distanced themselves as quickly as possible. By 2008, every idea of conservatives was proven to be a failure and had destroyed our government and our economy.

The GOP's Biggest Loser, To Become Their Last Hope?
The GOP’s Biggest Loser, To Become Their Last Hope?
Kim Davis cartoon
Trump's Chump?
Trump’s Chump?
Speaker John Boehner's Puppet Master
Speaker John Boehner’s Puppet Master
Image credit: J. Scott Applewhite/AP.
Conservatives: Go F**k Yourselves America
Ted Nugent: America's Epic Fail
Ted Nugent: America’s Epic Fail
Image thanks to brotherpeacemaker.com
Mitt Romney
John McCain still bitter about 2008?
John McCain still bitter about 2008?
Senator Mitch McConnell: "Election, what election?"
Senator Mitch McConnell: “Election, what election?”
Rove's laughing now.
Rove’s laughing now.
Bush Logic: Trust me. I know what I'm doing
Bush Logic: Trust me. I know what I’m doing
Rick Santorum - Extremist's Lap Dog...but he'll support Romney...didn't you get his eamil?
Rick Santorum – Extremist’s Lap Dog…but he’ll support Romney…didn’t you get his eamil?
Conservative Investigation: Celebrate males testify about women's contraception
Conservative Investigation: Celebrate males testify about women’s contraception
Rush Limbaugh Wants Sex Videos
Rush Limbaugh Wants Sex Videos
Bachmann, Perry, Cain all served up what Evangelicals wanted
Bachmann, Perry, Cain all served up what Evangelicals wanted
Alabama Governor Robert Bentley
Alabama Governor Robert Bentley
Angle: Manning up in stupid
Angle: Manning up in stupid
gibbons_karrasch1
3rd Place in Miss Alaska, attended five different colleges in four years (one of them twice,) and 1/2 term Governor of Alaska (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
3rd Place in Miss Alaska, attended five different colleges in four years (one of them twice,) and 1/2 term Governor of Alaska (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Donald Trump: The anti-American candidate
Donald Trump: The anti-American candidate

Still, conservatives refused to accept reality and took the one action left for them. Try to sabotage any program or law that would repair our country. During their reign of terror on the United States they had managed to gerrymander districts across the country to keep a conservative majority in the House of Representatives. That was enough to give conservatives the ability to prevent any effective action to fix our government, which allowed them to promote the myth that our government was broken, even though it was conservatives who were breaking it. Any attempt to circumvent this tactic was declared to be an affront to the Constitution and the separation of powers.

The Product of Conservative's Lunacy

The Product of Conservative’s Lunacy

Trump:  The Political Whore of Stupid, White People
Thirty-five years of conservative politics and distilled out all rationality in the Republican party. The party has degenerated to the point that the most successful candidate to win the Republican presidential nomination has to incite the worst elements of our country into believing that we are doomed and that the best course of action is to elect the people who have consistently failed.

Trump is the bastard child of Reagan’s legacy. He is the champion of the citizen with the mentality of a eight-year old boy. He enables stupidity as a way to govern our country. He will give his supporters whatever excites them as long as he doesn’t have to be around them too much. Trump is what happens when an ideology refuses to accept its own failure.

Moffat County, Colorado: Story of Two Families (Part III-Another Radiator Springs)

12 Friday Feb 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Aging, Business, College, Education, Generational, Government, History, Lessons of Life, The Tipping Point, Travel, US History

≈ 2 Comments

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Barrick, Colorado, Colorado Street, Craig, Family, Frances Barrick, genealogy, Kiser, Maybell, Mike Kiser, Vernon Kiser

1940’s-Kiser/Barrick Merger
By 1939, both the Barrick and Kiser family had established themselves in Moffat County. The original two families had lived in northwestern Colorado for over two decades and the children born there were now old enough to start their own families. Vernon, the oldest son of the Kiser family and Frances, the eldest daughter of the Barrick family married on October 29, 1939. Both were first generation natives of Moffat County.

Vernon and Frances Kiser

Vernon and Frances Kiser

To support themselves, Vernon took jobs wherever he could in the 1940’s. He and Frances moved several times around northwestern Colorado to be where the work took them. World War II had little impact on Vernon and Frances as he had broken his arm as a child and it failed to heal properly.

His disqualification to join the military was a blessing as he became a father in 1945. Kenneth Clyde was born on July 10, and by that time Vernon had settled into a career as a heavy equipment operator. In 1949, Vernon began working for Henderson Construction where he would remain for the next 22 years.

However, World War II did have an impact on other members of the Kiser and Barrick family. Vernon’s brothers, Loren and Hubert Kiser and, the brother of Frances, George Jr. and two of her brother-in-laws, Lewis Hurlburt and Ed Annon served in the military during the war. All survived the war, but they, and their families, all relocated outside of Moffat County after they returned.

1950-70 The Hahn’s Peak Years
Vernon’s work with Henderson Construction was largely with a small mining company. One of their mining claims was Hahn’s Peak in nearby Routt County. The idea was that because gold had been found in a radius around the extinct volcano, perhaps there were veins of gold in the mountain. For many years Vernon was employed to build and maintain roads on Hahn’s Peak for the mining operations on the mountain. Almost all of the roads on Hahn’s Peak were carved out by Vernon.

Hahn's Peak - Roads by Vernon Kiser

Hahn’s Peak – Roads by Vernon Kiser

Vernon and Frances had three more boys during his tenure with Henderson Construction. Michael Warner was born in 1950, Roy Dean was born in 1953, and Paul Alan was born in 1957.

Because Hahn’s Peak was about an hour and a half from Craig, Vernon lived in a trailer house at the base of the Hahn’s Peak during the week. During the summer when school was out the family would join their Dad and live at the camp for the summer. Once a week Frances and the boys would come into town to wash clothes, shop, and maintain the yard at the house, then head back to Hahn’s Peak.

1960-80 677 Colorado Street
Much of the Barrick family had moved out of Moffat County during the 1940’s and 50’s; however, the Vernon and Frances built a home at 677 Colorado Street in Craig, and From 1958 until 1978, that house was the anchor of the Kiser family. All their boys attended school in Craig, played sports, and graduated from Moffat County High School while living in that house.

The Kiser Family in 1957

The Kiser Family in 1957 at the new house, 677 Colorado Street

Henderson Construction closed it’s doors in 1972, and eventually Vernon took a job at the Moffat County Road Department where he moved up to the Assistant Road Supervisor. By 1976, all of their boys had graduated and left Craig, so Vernon and Frances decided to move to Great Divide and manage one of the county’s remote road maintenance stations.

Of their four boys, Mike Kiser was the only one who returned to northwest Colorado to stay. He was a helicopter mechanic for the Army and was stationed in Germany. After his tour of duty he worked a couple of years as a mechanic for the City of Sandy, Utah. Mike married a woman he met in Utah and they moved back to Craig. In 1975, they had a daughter, Carey.

In Craig, he took a job with the Moffat County Road Department and later became a member of Craig’s volunteer fire department. Unfortunately, while Mike was in his 30’s he was stricken with a hereditary autoimmune disorder that put him in the hospital for weeks at a time and he had to stop working. Eventually, Mike moved out to Maybell where he lived for the rest of his life.

1980’s to 2015-End of an Era
Craig’s story is similar to the story of Radiator Springs in Disney’s fictional town in the animated movie Lightning McQueen, Craig is the town that saw its glory days when U.S. Highway 40 was the best route between Denver and Salt Lake City. Once Interstates 70 and 80 were built, Craig became more isolated even though the two-lane highway is shortest route between the two major cities.

For a person graduating from Moffat County High School, Craig’s career opportunities are limited and the community can’t absorb 100 new job seekers every June. A diploma for many graduates is an order to work for the family business, a signal to scramble to find a local job, or a ticket to pack and leave northwestern Colorado.

Since the Barrick family emigrated to Moffat County in 1913, at least 24 Kiser/Barrick family members lived in northwestern Colorado. By 1990 there were only five members living in the county. The rest left the area for military service, college, better jobs, or just to discover other places. 

The family members still living in Moffat County were Vernon and Frances Kiser, Mike Kiser, Virginia Barrick Hurlburt (sister of Frances,) and George Dean Jr. (brother of Frances.) Vernon had retired from the Road Department and he and Frances purchased a small ranch on the Yampa River west of Maybell. Mike Kiser and Frances’ sister, Virginia Hurlbert, also moved out to Maybell. The five survivors of the Kiser/Barrick family were all natives of Moffat County.

For several years Vernon and Frances enjoyed the return to life on a ranch until Vernon began having health problems. Vernon, the first child of the Kiser/Barrick clan to be born in Moffat County, died at Craig Memorial Hospital in 1996. He was 77. Virginia died in Maybell in 2004. She was 76. George Dean Jr. died in Craig two years later. He was 84. Frances, the last of the first generation of homesteader’s children died at her home in Maybell in 2008. She was also 84.

Michael Warner Kiser 1950-2015

Michael Warner Kiser 1950-2015

After his mother’s death, Mike Kiser remained at the home west of Maybell. He had been married twice, but he had been single for most of the last half of his life. Although he lived with chronic pain, he had been feeling healthier lately. Local people had seen him taking long walks near his home on Highway 318. He had been out on Thursday, November 19, 2015, but no one had seen him since. His brother, Roy, tried to call him on the weekend and when he couldn’t get ahold of Mike he asked the Moffat County Sheriff’s Department to check up on him. They found him dead of a heart attack in his home.

The Kiser/Barrick family line in Moffat County

The Kiser/Barrick family line in Moffat County

Mike’s passing ended a century of the Kiser/Barrick family in Moffat County. The Kisers and the Barricks that were born and raised in northwestern Colorado weren’t really noteworthy. None of them ran for political office, none of them were high-profile citizens, and rarely did you see their names in the local papers. They attended the local schools, worked at local jobs, were involved in sports in high school, and they quietly raised families.

This July the Kiser and Barrick families will come together at Hahn’s Peak to say goodbye to Mike, and say goodbye to our home in northwestern Colorado.

ALSO:  Part I – Pre-Homesteading

ALSO: Part II – Two Family’s Destiny Unfolds

Five Fixes For Our Primary/Caucus Fiasco

04 Thursday Feb 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Government, Information Technology, Internet, Politics, Taxes, US History

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Caucus, Caucuses, Conservatives, Democrat, Democrats, GOP, Iowa, New Hampshire, Primaries, Primary, Republican, Republicans

Voting FAIL

Voting FAIL

For decades we have been given this advice about our system for electing Presidents:  “If it’s broken, don’t try to fix it.”

People get nervous about elections and major changes are automatically assumed to create new problems…and it’s true. Any change will create new issues; however, the question is whether or not the new issues are really significant, or whether they are just the Elmer’s in the room who try to find a problem even if it is absurd.

First, we have to accept that our current political system works for some people. People with money and power really, really like the current system because it is easy to manipulate. In addition, people who have more pull in the political system than they should have really, really like it because the current system gives a handful of Iowans and New Hampshirites much more of a punch to our political system than they should have under an all voices are equal” system.

But the United States of America is spiraling out of control because our system of electing our leaders has become a type of reality TV show where entertainment is rewarded and common sense is punished. So how do we fix it?

ONE:  Corporations Are NOT People
It is hard to fathom how absurd the justification was for the Supreme Court to rule in favor of Citizens United. Free speech is our greatest foundation of democracy. Each person has a right to voice his or her opinion. What the Supreme Court did was to dilute our voice and say that not only do individuals have free speech rights, but some privileged individuals can amplify their voice to have a greater access to free speech than the common individual. It’s a perversion of the First Amendment and everyone knows it.

The ruling has to be reversed if our political system is to be restored.

TWO:  Tax Big Donors
The mega-contributor to political campaigns is now the tail wagging the political dog. Our country’s dignity has been slowly eroded by the wholesale purchasing of politicians by wealthy individuals and organizations. Yes, that means unions and corporations.

Contributions that exceed $500 in a two-year period given directly or indirectly to a campaign or cause should be taxed at 100%. Give a million dollars  to a campaign, pay an additional $999,500 to the government entity the candidate or cause will serve or impact.

THREE:  Government Established Primaries
The idea that political parties can establish any method of choosing a candidate is ridiculous. It plays into the hands of the buffoon who suddenly  decides that the method was unfair and then we are off to the courts. Every State should have a Primary, not a Caucus and it should be done under the same rules in every State.

FOUR:  Fifty Primaries in Fifty Days
By lottery pull the names of each State. The first State pulled holds their primary on February 1st. The second State pulled has their primary on February 2nd, etc. Candidates can begin campaigning in a State three weeks before the primary for that State.

FIVE:  Use both Internet and In-Person Voting
Voting is going to be done by the Internet. It’s coming. Why not start with the primaries? Keep the in-person option available, but allow people to vote on a secure website.

Each registered voter is given a unique code for each election. They register for the election website and set up a password. On the election date they sign in, enter their unique code, and vote.

Time to Repeal Republicans

07 Thursday Jan 2016

Posted by Paul Kiser in Branding, Business, Communication, Ethics, Government, Government Regulation, Health, History, Opinion, Politics, Public Image, Religion, Respect, Taxes, US History, Women

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2016, Congress, conservative, Conservatives, Election, GOP, Healthcare, Obamacare, Paul Ryan, Republican, Republicans, Speaker of the House, Tea Party

The Republican party can’t help themselves. They are born to do the wrong thing.

Paul Ryan - Leader of the Stupid (Image credit: Wall Street Journal
Paul Ryan – Leader of the Stupid (Image credit: Wall Street Journal
Cliven Bundy - Created in Ronald Reagan's Image (photo credit cnn.com)
Cliven Bundy – Created in Ronald Reagan’s Image (photo credit cnn.com)
Edgar Votes GOP (Image credit: Columbia Pictures
Edgar Votes GOP (Image credit: Columbia Pictures

The United States of America was established on the principle that everyone is equal. Yes, there were some many of our founders who didn’t see African Americans as equals, nor were women seen as equals, but they probably also didn’t believe that the Earth orbited the Sun.

Over time we learned that all humans are truly equal. Over time we adopted a system of government that was committed to protecting the rights of ALL people. Over time we became the greatest country in the history of the world not only because of the principles that were the framework of our country, but because we took that framework and made it greater than the people who wrote it.

But there are always those who want to tear it all down under the belief that it is not ‘our’ country, but ‘my’ country. Those people who are too stupid to be let out in public, but want a gun in their purse when they our out among our citizens just in case they see someone they want to kill.

Conservatives have a history of tearing down great things. Guided by the concept that “we can’t,” conservatives have constantly battled for less for everyone else and more for them.

After fifty attempts the Cliven Bundy’s of Congress have finally passed a repeal of Obamacare. Nope, they don’t have a plan ‘B’, except they want American healthcare run by the greedy, not by compassionate. Republicans have proven again why they are the party of anti-Americans. They hate equality. They hate being told to be ethical. They hate paying for the privilege of being citizen of the United States of America.

It’s time we repeal Republicans and put our country back into the hands of the intelligent, the compassionate, and the true patriots.

Colorado By Any Other Name

19 Saturday Dec 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Communication, Generational, History, Recreation, US History

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Colorado, Colorado river, name origins, Spanish, Spanish names

Colorado

The sign may have accidentally got the origin of the name correct

Growing up in Colorado I was drilled in the origin of the name. From elementary school to adulthood I was told over and over that Colorado is Spanish for “color red.” It sounds logical because Colorado sort of sounds like Color Red. The rest of the tale is that it is based on the red in the Colorado River. Again, it almost sounds logical, so it must be true. Even today, a Google search of the origin of the State’s name will usually refer to the same story.

The problem is that “color red” in Spanish is “color rojo” which doesn’t sound quite like Colorado. If that was the real story the name of the State would be Colorojo, or Coloroyo considering how we English-speaking Caucasians butcher other languages.

In addition, rivers in the West can be reddish, but only for relatively short periods of time.

Now that I’m learning some Spanish the origin of Colorado would seem to be logically from the word, “coloured” or “colored,” which, in Spanish means many or multi-colored. Only in Spanish it is pronounced color-ed and if you properly enunciate the final consonant it sounds like “eda.”

The Spanish word for ‘many colored’ would seem to be a more logical explanation for the origin of the name “Colorado,” because if you have actually seen any significant river in and around the West, the colors change depending on season and runoff.

In the Spring and after a thunderstorm the runoff will often put the red, iron laden soil in the river, which can make it reddish; however, that is not the typical color of rivers for the rest of the year. Rivers like the Rio Grande and the Colorado are often a green to deep green color on a summer or fall day, and steel-gray in overcast skies and during winter.

Many Colored Colorado, or Color Red Colorado?

Many Colored Colorado, or Color Red Colorado?

Many colored is not only a more appropriate description of the Colorado river, it is a better description of the State in general. Perhaps we need to stop repeating the tales of early settlers who often made up stuff to impress people on their wisdom and knowledge, and instead used common sense to find the truth about the origin of names, places, and things. 

If I Were Speaker of the House of Representatives

28 Wednesday Oct 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Education, Ethics, Government, Government Regulation, Higher Education, History, Honor, Politics, Religion, Respect, Taxes, US History

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Congressional Districts, Democrats, House Freedom Caucus, House of Representatives, Neo-Republicans, Paul Ryan, Republicans, rural

House of Representatives

This House is Out of Order

It seems that Paul Ryan (R-WI,) has the bid to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives sewn up, but before anyone makes a significant mistake, allow me to offer myself as the alternative choice.

As Speaker, I can guarantee you that the dignity of the United States House of Representatives will be restored. To accomplish this, the following steps will be taken on Day One:

  1. The 38 members of House Freedom Caucus will be declared to be a neo-Republican party, independent of the Republican Party. Anyone joining their caucus will also be declared to be neo-Republicans.
  2. The House will be divided into three parties. The Republicans, the Democrats, and the neo-Republicans. Each will have their own leadership.
  3. Congressional committees will be all be reorganized with the two largest parties determining who will be given a proportional number of members on all committees If a third-party caucus has enough representatives to equal or exceed fifty percent or more of the of the second largest party, the majority leaders of the two largest parties will vote to select one Representative from the third-party to sit on that committee. 
  4. When Congress is in session, the leadership of the two largest parties will meet the first day of the week for breakfast to determine the agenda and issues to be addressed that week. 

That’s it. Four steps to put the House of Representatives in motion again.

The House Freedom Caucus:  The Rotten Apples in the House
The problem in the House is not bad politicians. There have always been bad politicians and always will be in almost every form of government. The problem is that the Republicans have let the worst 38 Representatives to determine what does and does not get done. The have let the House Freedom Caucus bring down everyone to their level because the Republican leadership knows that if they lose the support of these 38 members, they lose their majority.

What the Republicans don’t understand is that they are on the verge of allowing the House Freedom Party destroy the GOP if they don’t rid themselves of these 38 members (36 according to the Pew Research Center.) Here are the members according to Wikipedia and the Pew Research Center:

  • Jim Jordan of Ohio, Chair
  • Justin Amash of Michigan
  • Brian Babin of Texas (Not on the Pew list)
  • Rod Blum of Iowa
  • Dave Brat of Virginia
  • Jim Bridenstine of Oklahoma
  • Mo Brooks of Alabama
  • Ken Buck of Colorado
  • Curt Clawson of Florida
  • Ron DeSantis of Florida
  • Scott Desjarlais of Tennessee
  • Jeff Duncan of South Carolina
  • John Fleming of Louisiana
  • Trent Franks of Arizona
  • Scott Garrett of New Jersey
  • Paul Gosar of Arizona
  • Morgan Griffith of Virginia
  • Andy Harris of Maryland
  • Jody Hice of Georgia
  • Tim Huelskamp of Kansas
  • Raúl Labrador of Idaho
  • Barry Loudermilk of Georgia
  • Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming
  • Mark Meadows of North Carolina
  • Alex Mooney of West Virginia
  • Mick Mulvaney of South Carolina
  • Gary Palmer of Alabama
  • Steve Pearce of New Mexico
  • Scott Perry of Pennsylvania
  • Ted Poe of Texas (Not on the Pew list)
  • Bill Posey of Florida
  • Keith Rothfus of Pennsylvania
  • Matt Salmon of Arizona
  • Mark Sanford of South Carolina
  • David Schweikert of Arizona
  • Marlin Stutzman of Indiana
  • Randy Weber of Texas
  • Ted Yoho of Florida

Rural Districts Running America

Congressional District map for Freedom Caucus membership of the 114th Congress

Congressional District map for Freedom Caucus membership of the 114th Congress (Credit: Wikipedia Commons)

These 38 are Representatives of primarily rural Congressional districts that often feel impotent in the political arena. Residents of rural areas find that their simplistic, socially conservative, sometimes racist, ultra-religious, anti-education view of the United States of America is often ignored because it is contrary to the Constitution and laws of our country. Despite this, residents of rural areas often see themselves as superior to urban residents, even though they lack the knowledge to make informed opinions. This makes them easy targets for unethical politicians to win their vote because rural voters typically listen only to what they wish to hear.  

NEXT:  Paul Ryan’s Legacy of Failure

2016: Oil Prices Near $5/Gallon?

12 Monday Oct 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in About Reno, Business, Ethics, Government, History, Management Practices, Politics, US History

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

alternative fuel, big oil, Bush, Clinton, crude, electric, fuel, gas prices, gasoline, margin, oil, oil prices, OPEC, President Obama, profit, Reagan, solar, Supply and Demand

Oil prices have more excuses than a meth addict. Demand in China, oil refinery fires or in maintenance, OPEC restricting supply, Saudi Arabia flooding the market, etc. Reality in oil pricing is elusive; however, despite what some experts say, next year will likely see the price at the pump jump based on current factors and on politics.

Minor Influence:  Supply and Demand
We have always been told that supply and demand rules the capitalistic market. Most people mistakenly assume that free market means the market can’t be manipulated, but a free market is ripe for manipulation, especially for the unethical business person.

A prime example of market manipulator is Saudi Arabia. Big oil producers are constantly seeking a bigger piece of the oil market, and fracking in the United States has revitalized US oil production. The Saudi response has been to flood the market with oil to bring down the price/barrel, leaving US producers with increased expenses and less revenue.

World oil supply carefully follows demand (Graphics credit: Yardeni.com)

Graphic 1.0:  World oil supply carefully follows demand (Source: Yardeni.com)

Despite temporary manipulations of the oil supply, the ratio of world supply and demand has not significantly changed in recent history. Demand has steadily increased (See Graphic 1.0,) and supply has increased just slightly less than demand. In fact, the supply of oil carefully follows demand so perfectly that it seems unnatural. It’s almost as if oil companies knew that an over supply would force oil prices down and oil shortages would lead to high gas prices, which would stimulate the development of alternative fuels.

Monthly imported crude oil price (1980 to 2014) Source: Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)

Graphic 2.0:  Monthly imported crude oil price (1980 to 2014) Source: Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)

There is no obvious correlation when comparing the wild deviations in crude oil price (See Graphic 2.0) to the world supply and demand (See Graphic 1.0.) This raises the question: If supply and demand doesn’t control the price of oil in the United States, what does?

US and Europe Oil Demand

Graphic 3.0:  US and Europe Oil Demand. The 2008 recession-triggered a drop in demand (Source: Yardeni.com)

The Game of Oil Pricing
World oil demand has been on the increase, but not in the United States and Western Europe (See Graphic 3.0.) The Recession of 2008, pushed demand down in the United States and Western Europe, but as the world economy collapsed, the price of crude oil rocketed up, then dropped dramatically for six months, then returned to its pre-recession price and resumed a steep climb for the next five years. The price of crude oil didn’t coincide with pre-recession, recession, or post recession demand.

Interestingly, retail gas prices (See Graphic 4.0) make even less sense than crude oil prices, as the price at the pump spiked while crude oil prices dropped. This deviation between crude oil prices and retail gas prices would be repeated, in 2012. The common denominator? The Presidential election. 

2016
Some experts are saying oil prices will remain low in 2016. The problem with these predictions are that the demand for oil is increasing, Republicans are self-destructing, and the economy is in good shape. Low prices at the pump in 2016, would be death to Republicans, and that is not what conservatives in the oil industry do in an election year.

October 2008 and 2012 pricing show a dramatic deviation from past years

Graphic 4.0:  October 2008 and 2012 pricing show a dramatic deviation from past years (Source eia.gov)

Since 1980, oil pricing just prior to Presidential elections in the United States follows an interesting pattern. According to the Energy Information Administration (eia.gov) the average retail regular unleaded price has a strong correlation to the  imported crude oil prices; however, during the last two Presidential election years, the October retail price jumped dramatically, while crude oil prices fell (See Graphic 4.0.) The rare deviation in the price of retail regular unleaded gasoline just before an election again indicates that the market was influenced by political, not free-market, forces. 

Oil pricing during Presidential election year follows a consistent pattern

Graphic 5.0:  Oil pricing during Presidential election year follows a consistent pattern

As 2016, is another election year, and as the Republican party is in deep trouble, the conservative leadership in the oil industry will likely follow the past pattern of attempting to create an economic crisis through manipulation of retail oil prices. Based on the Presidential election years since 1980, the average at-the-pump price of regular unleaded (See Graphic 5.0) will be about $270/barrel or around $4.91/gal.

(NOTE:  Personally, it’s hard to believe we could see $4.91/gallon next October. Despite what the trendlines suggest, I would expect the price to be closer to an average of $4.50/gallon. However, I’m confident that the average price of regular unleaded gas will be over $4.25/gallon.)

GOP Presidential Race is Over

27 Sunday Sep 2015

Posted by Paul Kiser in Ethics, Government, Health, Politics, Pride, Public Image, Religion, Respect, The Tipping Point, US History, Women

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2016, America, conservative, Conservatives, Elections, GOP, House of Representatives, House Speaker, John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Pope, President, Republicans, resignation, right-wing extremists, Tea Party, United States of America

Marco Rubio basking in the glow of Boehner's resignation

Marco Rubio basking in the glow of Boehner’s resignation

House Speaker John Boehner’s resignation last week has brought reality to the Republican party. The smallest minority in Congress is the right-wing extremists and they have been the tail wagging the GOP dog. House Speaker Boehner has been attempting to keep up appearances that common sense conservatives and right-wing extremists all want the same thing, but they don’t. Boehner’s resignation was the showdown between conservatives who believe in the founding principles of our country and conservatives who want to dismantle our country.

Senator and Republican Presidential candidate, Marco Rubio announced Speaker Boehner’s resignation to the cheers of a political group that desires to overthrow our 240 year-old government and replace our Constitution with Taliban-like laws based on mythology. Rubio then went on to say that it is time to “turn the page” on a government that sees all people as equal and install a government that dictates who people can love, what women can choose, and how people can worship.

House Speaker John Boehner takes the high road

House Speaker John Boehner takes the high road

Senator Rubio’s victory speech is premature. Boehner’s resignation exposes the Republican party’s festering wound and the hysteria of the mob mentality of right-wing extremists. The Republicans have two choices. They can either capitulate to the right-wing extremists and select a Presidential candidate that will not be electable, or they can finally stand up to those people who seek to overthrow our government and find a moderate conservative that might draw some support from left leaning voters.

In either case, it is unlikely that any Republican candidate can rid themselves of the poisonous environment created by extremists in their party. The right-wing extremists have devolved into a group that has lied and deceived so much that their social media posts are only propaganda for incestuous consumption of other extremists.

However, the right-wing extremists are not an unstoppable force. Their lies and deceit may entertain them, but disgust intelligent, loyal citizens. Right-wing extremists are parading stupidity as if it is something to be proud of in a country of highly intelligent people. The only question is whether common sense conservatives will stay on the right-wing band wagon until it goes off the cliff.

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